Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?- Page 2
Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
chicagodannyd
Stand-by Joined: 4/7/09
#25Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 12:49pm
In the final analysis it is up to the theatre professionals who run the business to decide how they wish to approach the future of New York theatre. You can wait for the pandemic to finally end and hope for a solid future. However, in today's complex world there is no guarantee at all of a steady ship traveling successfully through all the problems we have in the USA. Right now cities like New York and Chicago are experiencing increasing violence that doesn't show signs of letting up. In addition, those cities are suffering severe economic hardship. People, especially those who support theatre, are leaving in droves. Added to that is the pandemic. There are reliable reports that Covid19 antibodies may not last long in the body. People have actually gotten the disease twice. Added to that is the fear of mutant viruses or more virus attacks. We live in a risky world.
From my experience in business, the successful businesses always work on plans for the future. It is called R&D. And those who sit on their success and remain inflexible, ultimately fail. Sears is the outstanding example of this. They did not take the internet seriously and it cost them their business. Today internet streaming of shows is a fast growing business. To turn your back on it, eliminate consideration of it as out of hand, can be risky. I believe yesterday I saw an article on the net that Fox bought Tubi streaming service for 440 million dollars. Impressive.
I looked at several streaming agreements. Look at it this way: Let's say a performance of a new show was sold by subscription for 10 bucks and 50,000 people in the USA signed up. That is half a million dollars. amazon Firestar takes 20%. So the show takes 400,000 to pay for production, advertising and profit. Of course a play would be substantially less costly to record than a musical. A serious, detailed study of the marketing model needs to be made. No one is recommending that all performances of a show be streamed. Maybe one, or several, or maybe a different show very two weeks. I am not going to comment on this further. I have my own businesses in development that have nothing to do with show business and take up a lot of time. I leave you with this: A judicious, wise business man/woman always has a backup plan. He/she is a visionary. Goodbye and good luck.
ZXXR
#26Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 1:12pm
@chicagodannyd what you say is short (and wrong) on facts and long on naiveté. From my experience in business, this one and others, starting with your conclusion as your premise is never wise. But you go on streaming these $400,000 shows of yours that 50,000 people are gonna pay you $10 for. lol and 
#27Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 2:04pm
chicagodannyd said: "In the final analysis it is up to the theatre professionals who run the business to decide how they wish to approach the future of NewYork theatre.You can wait for the pandemic to finally end and hope for a solid future. However, in today's complex world there is no guarantee at all of a steady ship traveling successfully through all the problems we have in the USA. Right now cities like New York and Chicago are experiencing increasing violence that doesn't show signs of letting up. In addition, those cities are suffering severe economic hardship. People, especially those who support theatre, are leaving in droves. Added to that is the pandemic. There are reliable reports that Covid19 antibodies may not last long in the body. People have actually gottenthe disease twice. Added to that is the fear of mutant viruses or more virus attacks. We live in a risky world.
From my experience in business, the successful businesses always work on plans for the future. It is called R&D. And those who sit on theirsuccess and remain inflexible, ultimately fail. Sears is the outstanding example of this. They did not take the internet seriously and it cost them their business. Today internet streaming of shows is a fast growing business. To turn your back on it, eliminate consideration of it as out of hand, can berisky. I believe yesterday I saw an articleon the net that Fox bought Tubi streaming service for 440 million dollars. Impressive.
I looked at several streaming agreements.Look at it this way: Let's say a performance of a new show was sold by subscription for 10 bucks and 50,000 people in the USA signed up. That is half a million dollars. amazon Firestar takes 20%. So the show takes 400,000 to pay for production, advertising and profit. Of course a play wouldbe substantially lesscostly to record than a musical. A serious, detailed study of the marketing model needs to be made. No one is recommending that all performances of a show be streamed. Maybe one, or several, or maybe a different show very two weeks. I am not going to comment on this further. I have my own businesses in development that have nothing to do with show business and take up a lot of time. I leave you with this: A judicious, wise business man/woman always has a backup plan. He/she is a visionary. Goodbye and good luck."
@chicagodannyd Theatre has been around for 2,500 years, through many pandemics and economic calamities. Is crime up in NY? Yes, but still far below where it was in the 70's and 80's. IS the pandemic terrible? Yes but many fewer deaths and cases than the 1918 pandemic. Theatre will survive this. It will be changed, just like it changed post 9/11. But it will survive.
In your example above you say that a show could make $400k from streaming. It costs more than $400k to film a show - so where does the difference come from? Yes Fox bought Tubi for over $400M. But if theatre streaming is the future you think it is, why is nobody offering to buy BroadwayHD and their content library? A mass-market streaming service streaming reruns of well-known shows is a totally different animal than the very niche streaming of live theater.
#28Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 9:58pm
Thanks, itsjustme. Good points. We are undergoing a revolution in the transmittal of data. The immediate beneficiaries can be seen in Netflix and Disney. Broadway must adapt or be left behind.
The business model does not work. How do we know this? Most shows lose money and never repay their investors. "Investing" in a Broadway show is more like donating and getting a lottery ticket in return. If you hit the lottery then you have got a Book of Mormon or Wicked. Almost all prospective Broadway investors musy be read a warning from the SEC. Along with the warning comes a requirement that you are worth a million dollars, excluding the value of your principle residence.
Roundabout puts on many of the best musical revivals. Wouldn't you like to see them do this every year, instead of going a year without a musical and a year with a low budget musical? Monetize their principal assets: the shows themselves. But in a way that won't interfere with attendance while the show is still running on Broadway. How much money could Roundabout have made streaming their production of Cabaret starring Alan Cumming and Emma Stone, at the time the hottest young film actress in the country.
I also think that, for the good of most in the business, New York must give up its near monopoly on first run productions. There is more talent of all kinds twiddling their thumbs, or worse, appearing in Hallmark films, waiting for jobs on Broadway shows that never come to fruition. How many Broadway projects never open for lack of a theater? (Actually I have no idea) A nice fresh new show like Bandstand opens right at the end of a crowded season and doesn't get the respect or attention it might have found in other cities without the competition and with more of an interest in the problems of veterans due to proximity of military installations or an older population.
The Houston Grand Opera and the Chicago Lyric Opera have shown that they can (usually) put on Broadway caliber shows with Broadway talent. They should be encouraged to do so and with Broadway talent of all kinds.
I guess that there will be problems with unions and holders of intellectual property rights. If the money's there, usually a way is found. I know that I have probably neglected other problems.
#29Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 10:45pm
"Broadway must adapt or be left behind."
If theatre adapts as you suggest, there is no theatre left. You're ideas render it moribund. Much of what you say is, of course, wrong, but even were it right, you are advocating the death of theatre. Shame on you. And on a theatre board no less.
broadwayguy2
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/18/03
#30Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 10:56pm
I find this thread... intriguing.
”Theatre is THIS. IT MUST NOT CHANGE.”
“Theatre must evolve to THIS to survive.”
Neither are true. Theatre, as a human art, has evolved and will continue to involve. Some try to stop it, but it returns. There is no answer to what it must be. Theatre is, by its nature, a live performance where artist and audience share space and energy. Everything else is up for grabs.
Broadcasting theatre was once wildly popular, and it was understood that it was a broadcast OF theatre, not a replacement for theatre or a regular television show, and not quick what NBC recently tried either.
what will happen? No idea. But I am ready to go back to work and figure it out...
#31Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 11:17pm
OlBlueEyes said: "Thanks, itsjustme. Good points. We are undergoing a revolution in the transmittal of data. The immediate beneficiaries can be seen in Netflix and Disney. Broadway must adapt or be left behind.
The business model does not work. How do we know this? Most shows lose money and never repay their investors. "Investing" in a Broadway show is more like donating and getting a lottery ticket in return. If you hit the lottery then you have got a Book of Mormon or Wicked.Almost all prospective Broadway investors musybe read a warning from the SEC. Along with the warning comes a requirement that you are worth a million dollars, excluding the value of your principle residence.
Roundabout puts on many of the best musical revivals. Wouldn't you like to see them do this every year, instead of going a year without a musical and a year with a low budget musical? Monetize their principal assets: the shows themselves. But in a way that won't interfere with attendance while the show is still running on Broadway.How much money could Roundabout have made streaming their production of Cabaret starring Alan Cumming and Emma Stone, at the time the hottest young film actress in the country.
I also think that, for the good of most in the business, New York must give up its near monopoly on first run productions. There is more talent of all kinds twiddling their thumbs, or worse, appearing in Hallmark films, waiting for jobs on Broadway shows that never come to fruition. How many Broadway projects never open for lack of a theater? (Actually I have no idea) A nice fresh new show like Bandstandopens right at the end of a crowded season and doesn't get the respect or attention it might have found in other cities without the competition and with more of an interest in the problems of veterans due to proximity of military installations or an older population.
The Houston Grand Opera and the Chicago Lyric Opera have shown that they can (usually) put on Broadway caliber shows with Broadway talent. They should be encouraged to do so and with Broadway talent of all kinds.
I guess that there will be problems with unions and holders of intellectual property rights. If the money's there, usually a way is found. I know that I have probably neglected other problems.
"
There are a lot of things about commercial theater that should be fixed, revised, etc. But I don't think the business model is necessarily flawed to the degree you think it is. Over 60% of all new restaurants in the US fail, I don't think that means that the restaurant industry is operating under a failed business model, I think it's more that a new small business (of which both restaurants and Broadway shows are) are risky undertakings.
#32Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/18/20 at 11:57pm
broadwayguy2 said: "Theatre is, by its nature, a live performance where artist and audience share space and energy. Everything else is up for grabs."
You've stated the fundamental truth. Without the live performance in a shared space there can be no such thing as theatre. Yes we are in the middle of a pandemic that means we have to entertain ourselves until we can all meet again, but that does not mean that any of this stuff is theatre.
#33Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/19/20 at 4:29pmUpdated On: 7/19/20 at 04:29 PM
#34Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/19/20 at 4:32pm
HogansHero said: ""Broadway must adapt or be left behind."
If theatre adapts as you suggest, there is no theatre left. You're ideas render it moribund. Much of what you say is, of course, wrong, but even were it right, you are advocating the death of theatre. Shame on you. And on a theatre board no less."
Hogan, I believe that in the past I have criticized you for your arrogance and rudeness. I apologize most prolifically. If someone really knows, it is best for that person to give to others the hard truth so that we do not all waste our time. I've been here 10 years, I'll wait another five until I attempt to give any more opinions.
Just to put the stamp of approval on everything, what is you educational background and what is your experience in the theater. You think that Emma Stone's theater debut would not have a wide streaming audience? Roundabout does not produce some seasons of no major musicals or only a low budget musical? Actresses I have seen at 54 Below or with the NY Pops, including, Sierra Boggess, Betsy Wolfe, Laura Osnes and Megan Hilty, who do not deserve to be unemployed for several years. Even favorites like Laura Benanti entertain no multiple offers. I have personal experience as an investor.
I repeat that no widespread broadcast of the show will compete with the live show. She Loves Me and the West End King and I are good examples of popular shows with name stars that made it to national streaming with no impact on the live performances. Do you object to the handling of these shows? The question is, will they make money from the streaming. They have received very little marketing support.
blaxx
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/28/05
#35Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/19/20 at 5:12pm
OlBlueEyes said:
I repeat that no widespread broadcast of the show will compete with the live show. She Loves Me and the West End King and Iare good examples of popular shows with name stars that made it to national streaming with no impact on the live performances."
No impact because the shows had closed by the time they were released.
Listen, I don't take my clothes off for anyone, even if it is "artistic". - JANICE
#36Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/19/20 at 5:39pm
OlBlueEyes said: "HogansHero said: "Hogan, I believe that in the past I have criticized you for your arrogance and rudeness. I apologize most prolifically. If someone really knows, it is best for that person to give to others the hard truth so that we do not all waste our time. I've been here 10 years, I'll wait another five until I attempt to give any more opinions."
I think it is pretty clear that what I expressed here was an opinion. Reasonable people may differ in their opinions and I am always eager to hear anyone's opinion, yours or anyone else's. Please don't mistake that interest for a free ride when I disagree with that opinion, especially when I think it is destructive to something I cherish. Opinions have consequences."
Just to put the stamp of approval on everything, what is you educational background and what is your experience in the theater.
Lots but that does not earn me a stamp of approval.
You think that Emma Stone's theater debut would not have a wide streaming audience?
I am not sure what "wide" is to you. I think it would be well received within a modest market. I do not think that it would translate into film level attention, but you may think otherwise.
Roundabout does not produce some seasons of no major musicals or only a low budget musical?
The evidence says it does.
Actresses I have seen at 54 Below or with the NY Pops, including, Sierra Boggess, Betsy Wolfe, Laura Osnes and Megan Hilty, who do not deserve to be unemployed for several years. Even favorites like Laura Benanti entertain no multiple offers.
No one "deserves" to be unemployed for several years, and I hope no one is. I am even more concerned about the performers without any name recognition. I am not sure exactly what you are saying here, or if there is a question in there somewhere. (Maybe there are missing words?)
I repeat that no widespread broadcast of the show will compete with the live show.
I agree they shouldn't but it is less clear that they wouldn't. Again, you get your opinion and I get mine. What you say assumes there IS a live show. My sense from what you wrote was that you were advocating a new model if which maybe there would not be. Forgive me if that was not your intent.
She Loves Me and the West End King and I are good examples of popular shows with name stars that made it to national streaming with no impact on the live performances. Do you object to the handling of these shows? The question is, will they make money from the streaming. They have received very little marketing support.
I don't object but please understand that you are confounding what non-profits do and what commercial theatre can do. I don't know many commercial producers who think a new business model is needed or safe. Non-profits don't have to make money as long as they have generous donors. Commercial producers have obligations and except in the case of something like Hamilton, that we can all probably agree is sui generis, the general feeling is that there is a low (if any) upside, and a big downside.
I don't intend "arrogance and rudeness" though I do promise a robust response. I also don't want you to go on a hiatus for five days much less five years. Who knows? If you keep participating, maybe you will end up seeing the light.
#37Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/19/20 at 7:21pm
Thank you for a civil and measured response.
broadwayguy2
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/18/03
#38Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/20/20 at 8:58pm
Ya know, all other forms of live entertainment have had this "if we put it on a television set, they will never buy a ticket again" debate and it has been THOROUGHLY debunked at every turn. It is an old wives tale. Of ALL the debate points to have on this subject, of which there are many, that one has SO many holes. The only standing it has is stubbornness.
Perhaps the base line discussion is "Nothing will ever replace live theatre, but a video recording is comparable to a live cast recording and a souvenir program".
#39Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/20/20 at 9:47pm
broadwayguy2 said: "Ya know, all other forms of live entertainment have had this "if we put it on a television set, they will never buy a ticket again" debate and it has been THOROUGHLY debunked at every turn. It is an old wives tale. Of ALL the debate points to have on this subject, of which there are many, that one has SO many holes. The only standing it has is stubbornness.
Perhaps the base line discussion is "Nothing will ever replace live theatre, but a video recording is comparable to a live cast recording and a souvenir program"."
I am afraid you misapprehend the discussion. Let's try a slightly different base line: making high quality videos is not economically feasible for most shows and making crappy videos is damaging to the product. Now maybe you can append some other observations to that. And the "debunked" premise sure doesn't hold up very well for typical bands, one of major forms of live entertainment in a non-pandemic world.
#40Does American Theatre need a fundamental new strategy to survive?
Posted: 7/20/20 at 10:51pm
broadwayguy2 said: "Ya know, all other forms of live entertainment have had this "if we put it on a television set, they will never buy a ticket again" debate and it has been THOROUGHLY debunked at every turn. It is an old wives tale. Of ALL the debate points to have on this subject, of which there are many, that one has SO many holes. The only standing it has is stubbornness.
Perhaps the base line discussion is "Nothing will ever replace live theatre, but a video recording is comparable to a live cast recording and a souvenir program".
"
Not the best analogy. The other high profile examples are feature films, which are shown on television long after their theatrical release, and live sports, which are often blacked out in the local market.
