Staying power of Phantom?

[heo1128]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 8:42pm

Since today is Phantom's 21st anniversary, it made me wonder if any newer tourist favorites like Jersey Boys and Wicked will have the same kind of staying power. I think Wicked will for sure be around for at least 3 or 4 more years, and I'll bet Jersey boys might have a shorter life than that. Thoughts?

Updated On: 1/27/09 at 08:42 PM

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 8:46pm

21st Anniversary, sweetie. 21st.

[NYC_or_Bust]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 8:53pm

With a big enough budget, and a tweenie bopper folloing, Wicked could easily be replaced.

[brandontwin2]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 8:54pm

I think Wicked will last because so many know the story of the Wizard of Oz and I don't see that changing.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 8:56pm

Wicked will easily make it to its 10th anniversary and probably beyond.

I think Jersey Boys will eventually lose steam, but Wicked, Lion King, and Mamma Mia (with its appeal to people who don't speak English) will be around quite awhile.

[EponineAmneris]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 9:08pm

WICKED will see it's 10th birthday and beyond.

MAMMA MIA! will keep going and going and going...

LION KING won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

I predict BILLY ELLIOT will have a long, healthy run.

JERSEY BOYS has already showed signs of slowing down. Not much, but it's still strong. 3-5 more years at least.

[inick122492]

Posted: 1/26/09 at 9:17pm

The thing with Jersey Boys is that base of the story is only for the older generation. The Four Seasons are a group that will die out. If you go see the show you know it's people over 40. Wicked and Mamma Mia and Lion King keep people of all ages (etc.) coming and coming and coming for years.

[heo1128]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 1:56am

"21st anniversary, sweetie. 21st."

Hahah I definitely knew that...I have NO clue where 26th came from...? Problem solved.

Ah so true with the Jersey Boys/generational thing. Didn't think about that.

[CMU_bway_lover]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 3:49am

inick, by your logic Mamma Mia should also die out because it's all 1970s disco music.

Phantom's staying power came at first from the fact that when it first came out it had huge production values in comparison to other shows and was a spectacle which is what people want when shelling out money for the theater. Over time came to define the genre. Ask any standard non-MT savant the name of a musical and they will name Phantom (or some other ALW piece).

[I*heart*Manhattan]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 4:13am

I cant see wicked lasting as long, when i saw the origional London cast I really didnt like it. I think it's initial success was largely due to the amazing cast it had when it opened on Broadway. Most people i know are sick to death of it already.
Phantom has run for so long because not only does it have this huge fan base of people who see the show upwards of 50 times but it has spectical, a good score and a wonderfully romantic story without it being soppy

[Fosse76]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 11:28am

"I cant see wicked lasting as long, when i saw the origional London cast I really didnt like it. I think it's initial success was largely due to the amazing cast it had when it opened on Broadway. Most people i know are sick to death of it already."

Wicked's initial success had very little to do with its cast. If it did, sales would have dipped when the original cast left and the tour were only have been a moderate success (see The Producers). Instead, the show's popularity remains strong, despite the revolving cast, add one national tour, one sit-down (Chicago) and one lengthy run (LA). Just because you didn't like doesn't mean the show will have a short life. It still sells out.

"Phantom has run for so long because not only does it have this huge fan base of people who see the show upwards of 50 times but it has spectical, a good score and a wonderfully romantic story without it being soppy"

Phantom was such a huge specatcle that everyone just HAD to see it. Wicked has just as ardent a fan base as Phantom (though not as psychotic...crazy, yes) who see it over and over again. And to clarify, while its vocal fanbase is teen girls, surveys show that the audience make-up is the same as for every other show on Broadway, large proportion of mid-forties and older. And while Wicked does have a weak book and weak score, Phantom isn't exactly a great piece of theater either. Of the many things these two shows have in common, one of them is detractors who want them to fail merely because they don't like them. You don't like Wicked, so you want it to fail.

[Pianolin717]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 11:50am

"Hahah I definitely knew that...I have NO clue where 26th came from...? Problem solved. "

My friend thought it was the 26th too!! I think its because it was on the 26th of January lol

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 3:53pm

I really enjoy reading this thread, as such deep thought has gone into this!

I agree with Eponine Amneris and Fosse 76.

I think Wicked will run easily for over 10 years, it has done so well, since the critics hated it!

The Lion King, this will out do Beauty and the Beast, then it probably be a fair bet to add 10-20 years onto that. This prediction comes from that Beauty and the Beast did not do good business in London, where the show is entering into its 10 year and shows no sign of waning!

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 4:01pm

WICKED could easily become the longest running show ever.

As could LION KING.

MAMMA MIA! seems to be losing a bit of steam lately but I'm sure it will last five more years or so and same goes for JERSEY BOYS.

WICKED and TLK are the two to watch out for.

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 1/27/09 at 5:51pm

Agree!