2005 Oscars

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 5:56pm

Getting to be that time of year when people start focusing on who will be getting Oscar nominations and wins.

Here is a list of the current frontrunners according to readabet.com:

Ray 8/5

Alexander 3/1

The Passion of Christ 7/2

Phantom of the Opera 6/1

The Aviator 6/1

Closer 11/1

Finding Neverland 14/1

Kinsey 14/1

Fahrenheit 9/11 18/1

I Heart Huckabees 22/1

The Motorcycle Diaries 33/1

Oscarwatch.com's current list (note: she doesn't include films not yet released):

Ray
Vera Drake
Sideways
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Motorcycle Diaries
Hotel Rwanda
Kinsey
Fahrenheit 911
The Passion of the Christ

You can check out oscarwatch.com for a full list of categories. I also like oscarcentral.com, but he hasn't updated since March--fun to see his predictions from back then.

Discuss!

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 5:59pm

I'm eliminating Fahrenheit 9/11, The Passion of the Christ, and The Motorcycle Diaries from my personal Oscars because they all piss me off. And I Heart Huckabees because I don't think it was that well-liked in some circle. We'll see about Alexander, but I really have my doubts about that. It looks like another Troy to me, but I could be wrong.

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 5:59pm

I think the Oscars this year are going to all go to the smaller movies like KINSEY, FINDING NEVERLAND, and SIDEWAYS, the big, blushing epics like PHANTOM and THE AVIATOR just don't look terribly good. Just a prediction...

And what about KILL BILL 2 or the last HARRY POTTER movie?

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:02pm

Oh, yeah. Why isn't Sideways on that list? It should be.

And I agree about the big epics, Borstalboy. They just don't look that great. The casting just doesn't impress me.

An exception may be Phantom, which I hate on principle, but since people like the musical so much what do I know?

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:02pm

i dunno, my guy on the inside's been championing the aviator from day one. and he usually hates everything.

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:05pm

Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Becknsale were both quite good at earlier points in their careers. Cate Blanchett is great. We'll see.

And Gwen Stefani? Really?

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:05pm

The Aviator looks strong--especially with Mr. Scorsese directing. Have a lot of films to see. Must say I think F9/11 loses steam in that it didn't get Bush kicked back to Crawford.

[Type_A_Tiff]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:07pm

F9/11 for best feature doc seems like a shoo-in.

The Aviator, and Alexander---really? I thought both looked pretty bad.

The Passion is way too controversial to have even a snowball's chance in hell in getting any Oscar nods.

I'm seeing Finding Neverland tonight though!

Edited: because I changed my mind about F9/11 after reading Auggie's post.

Updated On: 11/4/04 at 06:07 PM

[JakeB]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:07pm

F9/11 is NOT Best Picture. Best Documentary yes, Best Picture - not even close.

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:08pm

Fahrenheit 9/11 just wasn't that good a movie. The second half had good moments, but the first half was below average, to put it kindly. No way it should even be nominated for Best Picture.

[Type_A_Tiff]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:09pm

But as either you or Rath said on the Beyonce thread, actually "being good" is more or less irrelevant when it comes to the Oscars.

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:10pm

Rath said it. I guess I'm not the only one who suspected we're sharing a brain. :)

The Oscars usually reward something that's at least meritorious, if not the best. We'll see.

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:11pm

I'm a little bitter on the Scorcese these days because I thought GANGS OF NEW YORK was such a misconceived bore, and Leonardo DiCaprio--though I'm not totally hatin' on him, usually--is all wrong for Howard Hughes. It just seems like knee-jerk star casting that is beneath Scorcese, not to mention Spielberg who has gone all starry-eyed as well.

[Ellie3]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:13pm

I just hope Laura Linney wins one, she SO deserves it!
Either for p.s. or Kinsey, I'm not fussy. In my view she should at least have a few already.

[Type_A_Tiff]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:13pm

I think it'll be meritous in the sense that most of Hollywood, it seems, strongly agrees with what Michael Moore has to say, and for that, I think it'll definitely win Best Doc.

Best Picture though...hard to say because "Oscar season" really only starts this month, right?

[Auggie27]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:23pm

Moore has said he's not submitting 9/11 in the documentary category--best picture or nothing. I think that's egocentric and foolhardy, and by March, we'll need a big dose of his mania,chutzpah and uncensored tongue. I dare say, he won't be booed this time. Which brings me to...

...JPR, I disagree with you that the film will lose steam and relevance in the shadow of W's ascendency. In a way, I think Bush not being kicked back to Crawford gives the film an ironic edge. Particularly in light of its 120 million hit status -- and remember, Hollywood is an industry town where hits bespeak power. I think the movie will now become that much more famous for the ways it empowered the anti-Bush base and yet didn't unseat him. I hope Moore changes his mind about the documentary nomination, because yes, he's a shoo-in. But to even nominate him for best picture will look like pandering. Not that it's been a stellar year... (I am a VERA DRAKE fan, particularly Staunton.)

Updated On: 11/4/04 at 06:23 PM

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:26pm

Well, Moore is nothing if not egocentric.

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:28pm

If Passion of the Christ wins any Oscars, I don't think I would be able to stop barfing. It was the same old Mel Gibson movie with over the top one dimensional bad guys and the suffering her, but this time the hero was Jesus so it has to be good.

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:29pm

Yes, like with most award shows, being good doesn't often count for a great deal at the Oscars. Sometimes it counts for a lot though (has anyone deserved an Oscar more than Charlize Theron?).

Personally, if we're talking giving people Oscars this year to make up for past undeserved losses, I would like to see Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney win one each. And if Johnny Depp doesn't win for Finding Neverland, I will eat my hat.

[Ellie3]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:31pm

Didn't Michael Moore say on Jay Leno that he had sacrificed his Oscar chances by breaking the eligibility rules by allowing F9/11 to be shown on TV?

[Plum]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:31pm

No Jamie Foxx?

[Type_A_Tiff]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:32pm

But in the end it wasn't shown on TV because Pay Per View balked at it, right?

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:33pm

I don't think FARENHEIT will get best picture nom, neither will PASSION OF THE CHRIST...I just think they will avoid that whole moment.
I think it's kind of been a great year for movies: KILL BILL VOL. 2, HERO, ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND, HARRY POTTER, VERA DRAKE, THE DREAMERS...but the fall/winter films look a little ragged to me.

Updated On: 11/4/04 at 06:33 PM

[Ellie3]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:33pm

Yeah but he didn't know that, so he never entered it!

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 11/4/04 at 6:35pm

Kill Bill would have had SO much more Oscar hope if Quentin had released it as one long ass movie. For me, Vol 2 was so average it wasn't even funny.