NY Times: Obama's 'Aura of Invincibility' Diminished

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 11:11am

Aura of Invincibility...sounds like something out of Harry Potter.

===

May 1, 2008
Loss and Furor Take Toll on Obama, Poll Finds
By ROBIN TONER and MEGAN THEE

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama’s aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr. Obama’s news conference on Tuesday, in which he denounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not have fully captured the impact of the controversy or Mr. Obama’s response.

But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say he is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago....

[more at link]
Loss and Furor Take Toll on Obama, Poll Finds

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 12:15pm

The new Quinnipiac Poll says that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida

Clinton 49, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio

Clinton 48, McCain 38
McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, McCain 37
Obama 47, McCain 38
May 1, 2008 - Clinton Tops McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama-McCain Too Close To Call In Two Key States

[DG]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 12:25pm

So, after the Times trashed Hillary the other day and now this, does it mean they're going to be supporting McCain for the presidency?

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 2:27pm

Guess what? Gallup UP!

[Namaste]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 2:29pm

Poll, poll, poll in ze hay!

[romantico]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 4:01pm

As much as I want Hillary, I think Obama has this nomination wrapped up.Too many powerful people are against Hillary. Howard Dean being one of them. He has way too much influence over the Super delegates. Like I said, they would rather Obama get the nomination and loose the White House than to see Hillary get the nomination and become President.Its really sad. McCaine is going to be like a repeat of Bush. The only that terrifies me more at this point is who McCaine picks for his VP. His pick will more than likely be the eventual President.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 4:11pm

Ye of little faith.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 5:35pm

My scenario:

This Tuesday, Hillary wins Indiana by 10, as expected, and takes North Carolina by 5...5 points that shake the Democratic Party to its core.

The pundits go apeSH*T. The netroots are enraged.

Then, on May 13, Hillary takes West Virginia by a 20-point landslide.

Then, on May 20, Obama has his final victory: Oregon.

It as at that point that he and Hillary go into a 3-day secret summit conference, chaired by Al Gore and John Edwards and emerge with a joint announcement of the 2008 Democratic ticket.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 5:39pm

I believe that nothing should be declared until June 4. Let everyone vote.

[romantico]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 5:49pm

OK, here's my scenario:

Hillary wins key states and according to polls shows SHE can beat McCaine but Obama can not. However, because Obama is a 'nice guy' and not so polarizing and will unite the party, the DNC decided to go with him. (ignoring Michigan and Florida by the way)

November comes and McCaine beats Obama. Hillary is blamed for her negative attacks during the primaries against Obama which MUST be the reason Obama lost. When all else fails and no one is left to blame, blame the Clinton's.

I'd lie to ask Howard Dean and the Super Delegates how they can ignore Hillary's wins. How can they over look the polls and Michigan and Florida? Is ignoring those Democrats who are voting and supporting Hillary their idea of uniting the party?

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 5:50pm

Whoever wins, it will be a horserace in the fall vs Mc Cain.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 6:03pm

i don't see it happening, pj.

she'll win indy by 4-8.

he'll win nc by 2-5.

delegate count will be a wash, she'll gain maybe 10-20, but...but...he only needs about 290 at this point (becuase face it, mi and fl wil get seated by the credentials committee at the convention, if at all, so he needs 2024).

tuesday's got 187 up for grabs. he gets say 83 and she gets 104. maybe.

she wins 18 of wv's 28 and 28 of kentucky's 51 .

he takes 36 of oregon's 52.

she takes 35 of pr's 55.

they split mt and sd's 31 vote total (he gets one less).

without any new supe endorsements he's sitting at 1919. 33 days from now. can he pick up 105 supes between now and then?

i think he can collapse in the primaries and it'll take the supes deserting him in a spectacular manner in order for him to lose since there's about 291 uncommitted now. this is all rough give or take a few. no way he accepts the veep slot when he's ahead in both delegates and votes. the supes will have to take it away from him and if they do he wil not accept the veep slot.

it's going to the convention. or it's bammy/richardson if they can somehow convince her to drop out. my money is on it going to the convention.

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 6:52pm

Papa's scenario seems likely. I've played around with the delegate estimator on cnn.com, any reasonable scenario has her needing to take almost 70% of the remaining supes. I also agree that she'll take it all the way to the convention.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 6:55pm

but madbri, you forget that they can change their mind as well. If the current polling holds, watch them do so.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 7:24pm

jerby, short of pj's scenario of her winning indy by 10 and nc by 5, i don't really see the supes taking it away from him. when have democrats ever shown the ability to be ballsy in a presidential year? and this year they are going to take away the nomination from a black guy who's leading? and risk losing the black vote, the youth vote, the netroots and supposedly the independents?

the only unity ticket they can run which will not tear the party apart is bammy/hil and she has no intention of being second banana.

if he manages to win in nc by 5 or more (and research 2000 today has him up 7) and keep indy to 5 or less the polls will swing back towards his direction. if he can announce a few supes so that he can show some momentum, he'll be back in front. plus remember, the all-important operational pause in rush's operation chaos.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 7:35pm

then I guess we are totally ****ed.

President McBush it is.

Unless, of course, people wake up and realize that Obama is better than McBush.

It makes me sick. But let's see what happens Tues.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 5/1/08 at 8:41pm

i stand corrected.
operation chaos is back on with no changes

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 12:26am

Indiana poll shows Clinton over Obama by guess how much?



===

Indiana Poll Shows Clinton With Big Lead Over Obama
Survey Taker: Pastor Controversy Possibly Big Factor

POSTED: 10:22 am EDT May 1, 2008
UPDATED: 6:33 pm EDT May 1, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS -- A statewide poll indicates a dramatic shift of support from Sen. Barack Obama to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of next week's Indiana Democratic presidential primary -- a shift that could be explained by a controversy over Obama's ex-pastor, the poll's conductor says.

The survey, conducted by Indianapolis-based TeleResearch Corp. and released exclusively to 6News, showed Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama in Indiana -- 48 percent to 38 percent -- with 14 percent of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

The telephone poll of 943 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters, conducted from April 25 through April 29, showed Clinton's support getting stronger as the polling period advanced.

Click here to find out more!

On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a slim lead -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- despite a 20 percentage-point lead for Obama among male respondents.

Each day, more respondents supported Clinton. By the last day of polling, Clinton had a 4 percent lead among men -- 45 percent to 41 percent -- representing a staggering 24-point swing in that demographic.

[more at link]

Indiana Poll Shows Clinton With Big Lead Over Obama

Updated On: 5/2/08 at 12:26 AM

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 8:54am

and zogby's got bammy up 16 in nc.
up 16

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 9:03am

And we all know how accurate the polls have been.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 9:08am

how dare you, marc! polls are always an exact prediction of the eventual outcome of each election!

[madbrian]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 9:11am

I thought only the polls that reflected PJ's point of view were valid?

[PalJoey]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 9:16am

Absolutely, madb!

The polls that agree with me prove that my predictions are coming true and my beliefs are more valid than anyone else's. All other polls just prove how inaccurate and biased the other pollsters are.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 3:41pm

PJ, I'm going to cross my fingers, pray and chant for your previous post about the 3 day summit, Gore and Edwards participation, and the verdict. That's our hope.

[roquat]

Posted: 5/2/08 at 6:18pm

"Aura of Invincibility." What a stupid, meaningless term. It explains his entire campaign.

In late 2001, people were exclaiming how Bush was finally acquiring a "Presidential aura" in the wake of 9/11. We saw how long that lasted.

I'm bitterly glad for the fact that after everyone was urging Hillary to drop out (and those stupid "Should Hillary Quit?" balloons started turning up on EVERY web site) Obama is suddenly getting a taste of the very same treatment. After heedlessly "riding the media wave" for so long, he's finally going beneath it...