Oscar nomination predictions!?

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 1:55pm

Nominees are announced Tuesday but does anyone have any early nominee predictions? Here are mine (in the major categories):


BEST PICTURE:
-Brokeback Mountain
-Walk the Line
-Goodnight, and Good Luck
-Crash
-Capote

DONT COUNT OUT: Munich, Match Point, A History of Violence, or The Constant Gardener


BEST ACTOR:
-Jaoquin Pheonix, Walk the Line
-Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
-Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
-David Straithan, Good Night and Good Luck
-Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man

DONT COUNT OUT: Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow, Jeff Daniels for The Squid and the Whale, or Eric Bana for Munich


BEST ACTRESS:
-Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
-Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
-Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
-Charlize Theron, North Country
-Kiera Knightley, Pride and Prejudice

DONT COUNT OUT: Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger, Gwyneth Paltrow for Proof, or Laura Linney for The Squid and the Whale


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
-William Hurt, A History of Violence
-Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
-George Clooney, Syriana
-Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
-Matt Dillon, Crash

DONT COUNT OUT: Terrence Howard for Crash, Don Cheadle for Crash, or Ed Harris for A History of Violence


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
-Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
-Amy Adams, Junebug
-Rachel Wiesz, The Constant Gardener
-Maria Bello, A History of Violence
-Catherine Keener, Capote

DONT COUNT OUT: Sandra Bullock for Crash, Thandie Newton for Crash (my choice to win if it was up to me...), Shirley MacClaine for In Her Shoes, or Frances McDormand for North Country


BEST DIRECTOR:
-George Clooney, Goodnight and Good Luck
-Steven Spielberg, Munich
-Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
-Woody Allen, Match Point
-Paul Haggis, Crash

DONT COUNT OUT: Peter Jackson for King Kong, Fernando Meirelles for The Constant Gardener, James Mangold for Walk the Line, or David Cronenberg for A History of Violence


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
-Brokeback Mountain
-Walk the Line
-Munich
-Capote
-Syriana

DONT COUNT OUT: King Kong, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, or Pride and Prejudice


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
-Crash
-Goodnight and Good Luck
-Match Point
-The Squid and the Whale
-Cinderella Man

DONT COUNT OUT: Broken Flowers or The New World





Updated On: 1/29/06 at 01:55 PM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:07pm

I don't understand why Scarlett J is not in the running this year!!

Your guesses look pretty good to me---who knows how some of the noms will go, but there are always surprises. I'm looking forward to those.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:07pm

My predictions...

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line *
*= Might be substituted for Munich.

Best Director
George Clooney
David Cronenberg
Ang Lee
Bennett Miller
Steven Spielberg

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Terrence Howard
Heath Ledger
Joaquin Phoenix
David Strathairn

Best Actress
Joan Allen (I have a feeling that the AMPAS won't be stupid this year)
Judi Dench
Felicity Huffman
Charlize Theron
Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney
Matt Dillon
Paul Giamatti
Jake Gyllenhaal
William Hurt

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams
Maria Bello
Catherine Keener
Rachel Weisz
Michelle Williams

I don't understand why Scarlett J is not in the running this year!!

I usually love her, but I really did not like her performance in that film. Updated On: 1/29/06 at 02:07 PM

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:09pm

In my mind, best original screenplay is the tightest race. It's nice to have so much good stuff this year.

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:15pm

Her performance in Match Point is incredible, especially given the dialogue she was given to work with.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:17pm

I found Scarlett to be very good in Match Point. Not nearly as good as she was in Lost in Translation (which deserved at least an Oscar nomination), but good nonetheless.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:24pm

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Match Point
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
George Clooney & Grant Heslov, Good Night and Good Luck
Paul Haggis & Robert Moresco, Crash
Cliff Hollingsworth & Akiva Goldsman, Cinderella Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
Dan Futterman, Capote
Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Josh Olson, A History of Violence

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:25pm

Woody Allen better not have a nomination wasted on that joke of a screenplay.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:28pm

Woody Allen better not have a nomination wasted on that joke of a screenplay.

My thoughts, exactly. That also goes for several other screenplays in consideration.

[littleredridinghood]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:34pm

heh, you put that Heath Ledger was in Capote...

Don't forget Viggo Mortenson in A History of Violence, either.
Updated On: 1/29/06 at 02:34 PM

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:36pm

Well, I think they already have been. Which in Bello's case is a shame.

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:38pm

"My thoughts, exactly. That also goes for several other screenplays in consideration."

Which are the several screenplays that are jokes?

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 2:55pm

Exactly. thank you.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 5:27pm

I share broadway86's exact thoughts on Best Picture. Four are pretty locked: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, CAPOTE, CRASH and GOODNIGHT AND GOOD LUCK.

One would assume WALK THE LINE is also a lock; however, with the way ballots are counted (it's complicated, but the gist of it is that the higher up on the ballot you are, the better), I'd say MUNICH could conceivably replace it. I don't think very many people would put WTL at the top of their ballot, while MUNICH seems to have a small but enthusiastic following.

I'd still bet on WALK THE LINE, though.

Updated On: 1/29/06 at 05:27 PM

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 6:05pm

True, but I think WALK THE LINE's Best Picture win at the Golden Globes just sealed quite a few nominations for the Oscars including Best Picture. I think WALK THE LINE has a surprisingly strong push behind it to do well on Oscar night. I think some people will be surprised.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 6:10pm

Except (and this is MY opinion, of course), Walk the Line isn't a great film. It just has great performances.

However, they have nominated so so films before.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 6:17pm

I do think that WALK THE LINE will nab that nomination, but I don't know if the Globes win was that big a push. People had known for weeks that it was going to win Best Musical or Comedy. Look at its competition: THE PRODUCERS (critical and financial bomb), THE SQUID AND THE WHALE (not enough hype), MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS (British film with not enough hype) and PRIDE & PREJUDICE (its only competition, and even that is a stretch). If WALK THE LINE was considered under Best Drama as it really should have been, I think it would have struggled for a nomination.

Still, it's one of the box office successes this year, while MUNICH is turning out to be a disappointment.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 6:42pm

By Tuesday, we'll have been through all the SAGS, too. So there's widespread feeling that more than other recent year, a climate of "awards fatigue" has hovered over the most touted film. The Oscars are being moved back, slightly, after being moved forward (late March to Feb, now March 5), because of the Olympics, and industry wags are saying people are already having a bit of BROKEBACK-itis, to a point. It was probably more exciting to root for when it was controversial. As it moves toward 50 million, it's already a success story.

The problem is, there isn't another runner-up film that has any consensus, the way VIOLENCE, say, popped up on some of the more esoteric critics' lists (Village Voice, for one). The GOOD NIGHT crowd and the MUNICH bunch together probably equal the BROKEBACK voters. CAPOTE followers are legion and vocal, but it's just not a Best Picture film (my feeling: because it still plays as sidebar commentary on a real work of art, IN COLD BLOOD, rather than being first tier art itself. And that's not to take anything away from its considerable achievements.)

I just wonder if all the cheering for BROKEBACK will seem been-there,done-that by March 5, so that its win in the big 3 (director, screenplay, picture) may be the only ones its carries. Just a rumination for end of January.

Ever hear of this group? Some odd choices (though Jerby will ove at least one:)

January 29, 2006
International Cinephile Society Names Winners
The ICS names their picks for 2005

BEST PICTURE
• Brokeback Mountain
runner-up: 2046

TOP 10 FILMS OF THE YEAR
01. Brokeback Mountain
02. 2046
03. A History of Violence
04. The New World
05. Good Night, and Good Luck.
06. Capote
07. Junebug
08. The Constant Gardener
09. Downfall
10. Munich

BEST DIRECTOR
• David Cronenberg - A History of Violence
runner-up: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain

BEST ACTOR
• Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
runner-up: Bruno Ganz - Downfall

BEST ACTRESS
• Naomi Watts - King Kong
runner-up: Emmanuelle Devos - Kings and Queen

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
runner-up: William Hurt - A History of Violence

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Amy Adams - Junebug
runner-up: Ziyi Zhang - 2046

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Junebug - Angus MacLachlan
runner-up: Good Night, and Good Luck. - George Clooney & Grant Heslov

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
runners-up: Capote - Dan Futterman & Josh Olson - A History of Violence

Updated On: 1/29/06 at 06:42 PM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 8:37pm

Brokeback is going to win the Oscar---based strictly on Oscar statistics, etc. An upset would be shocking at this point.

There is one pundit via oscarwatch.com who is trying hard not to think that Crash might just pop out of nowhere. I doubt this, though that would make me very happy. It was my number 2 film behind Good Night, and Good Luck. So, once Tuesday rolls around, the game can really begin.

But, just when I think there will be lots of shocking wins at the Oscars, it ends up being a predictable night. So, I'm gonna assume this will be a predictable year, hopes that they might shock us with a Shakespeare in Love or Marcia Gay Harden, the latter being one of my favorite and most deserving upsets in recent years.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 8:59pm

Except (and this is MY opinion, of course), Walk the Line isn't a great film. It just has great performances.

Agreed.

Which are the several screenplays that are jokes?

It's not that they are jokes. It's just that I didn't care for the screenplays of Cinderella Man, Crash, and Good Night, and Good Luck.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 9:00pm

When are final ballots due? I don't think there's enough time for a real contender to emerge. CRASH wasn't even nominated at the Globes; there has only been one Oscar winner that was not nominated for the GG, and that was THE FLY back in 1973. There were special circumstances as to why that occurred.

[LaVieHilary]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 9:56pm

Biography movies just aren't that great in general. I'm sure that the actors get props for their performance pertraying a very influential and famous person, but the stories themselves are weak. They are not original and tend to exagerate what events really happened back in the time of these legends.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 10:06pm

I loved Walk the Line. I thought it was a great movie with great performances. I loved the direction, the story, the music, the acting, the writing...everything.

And I also loved the screenplay for Crash. I think it's the most affecting and powerful screenplay in at least 5 years.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 10:09pm

Biography movies just aren't that great in general.

I agree, but I don't think that's the case with Capote.

[Lamc16]

Posted: 1/29/06 at 10:14pm

IF WILLIAM HURT IS NOT NOMINATED I AM GOING TO BE SOOOO PISSED/DISSAPOINTED!!