Ten Best Picture Nominees?

[SueleenGay]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 6:59am

Please!
What an awful year to change the rules. Are there ten films that are worthy? Are they required to nominate TEN or can the academy just decide there were really only SIX deserving a nomination?

[tazber]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 7:08am

I agree Sue. It's a terrible idea anyway, but this year?

I guess it's residual fallout from low ratings and Batman & WallE not being nominated last year.

The irony is that Avatar, a popular film, would probably still get a nomination this year even with only 5 slots.

Btw, love your av!

Updated On: 12/31/09 at 07:08 AM

[SueleenGay]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 7:23am

Thanks, it was a sad day, but I tried to bring some levity to the viewing, Uncle Walter would have wanted that.
I agree Avatar would probably get a nomination even if there were only 5 slots, but what about Old Dogs?

[tazber]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 7:27am

Old Dogs is a shoe-in. Unless Did You Hear About The Morgans? takes the comedy slot.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 10:59am

My top ten so far is In order):

PRECIOUS
AWAY WE GO
PIRATE RADIO
THE SOLOIST
THE BLIND SIDE
(500) DAYS OF SUMMER
UP
AVATAR
LAW ABIDING CITIZEN
BROTHERS

this is without seeing:

A SERIOUS MAN
A SINGLE MAN
AN EDUCATION
FANTASTIC MR. FOX
INVICTUS
SHERLOCK HOLMES
TAKING WOODSTOCK
THE HURT LOCKER
THE LAST STATION
THE LOVELY BONES
UP IN THE AIR


But so far I agree. What a pissy film collection 2009 has given us.

[Phyllis Rogers Stone]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:30am

Hopefully movies such as The Hangover might see a nod, as that was one of the best movies of the year.

[Jane2]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:35am

I haven't seen enough movies yet this year to make a list, but at this point I encourage everyone to see Crazy Heart. Here's an example of what acting is (by Jeff Bridges). And the soundtrack's great. I don't like country music but I pre-ordered the cd!

[jasonf]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:39am

As long as Avatar, Inglorious Basterds and Up get nominated, I'll be satisfied. I'd love to see one for Nine, but that's not happening. I'm holding out remote hope for Star Trek and The Hangover, more because I'd love to finally see mainstream hits actually dominate the nominations rather movies that might be good but are almost impossible to find.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:45am

They want to try and actually nominate films the general public cares about, as opposed to obscure little art house films.

That being said, I suspect that even with 5 nominees, Avatar would probably get nominated this year. It and Up are the two best movies I've seen this year, and I hope both are nominated.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:48am

Up In The Air did not live up to the hype for me, and I write this as somebody who is a fan of Reitman and Clooney. Anna Kendrick was the most impressive part of the film.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 11:59am

I think you may see some crazy (but well-reviewed) stuff like "Star Trek" and "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" get up for a Best Pic nod. Maybe "The Hangover," too.

Ten is a bad idea any year. The studios aren't making one-quarter of the number of films they were in the 1930s when they first decided to go to ten. And they reversed it during WWII when production slowed down (and stayed at that level after the war).

But this year? REALLY bad idea.

Guaranteed noms:

Avatar
Up
Up in the Air
Precious

I have a feeling "Up in the Air" is this year's Best Pic winner.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 12:04pm

The front runners are (in no order): Inglorious Basterds, Avatar, Up in the Air, & Hurt Locker. Perhaps Precious. Some are saying IB is going to win. Others, Avatar.

That's 5. 5 more?

An Education
Invictus
Up
Julie & Julia
The Blind Side

More?
500 Days of Summer
Summer Hours
A Serious Man
A Single Man
District 9
The Messenger

and the off chance that Nine will make it in, though not likely.

ETA: I agree with B12B that a The Hangover or Star Trek could sneak in.

Also, it's very possible less than 10 will be nommed--only first choices on the ballots are deemed eligible, thus if only 7 films get first choice, only seven would be nommed.

Updated On: 12/31/09 at 12:04 PM

[Jane2]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 12:14pm

I wouldn't count out Crazy Heart. It could be this year's dark horse candidate.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 12:19pm

I'm still doubtful that THE HANGOVER and STAR TREK will get in. I personally hope they don't as I thought HANGOVER was overhyped to no end (and it became so offensive at the end with the villain character that it became hard to even enjoy it) and STAR TREK is not Best Picture material, IMO.
Of the movies I've seen this year, my favorite so far has been AN EDUCATION. It's such a beautiful film, with one of the best acting ensembles this year (so happy they were nominated for a Best Ensemble SAG Award) led by Carey Mulligan's star-making performance. The movie had a gorgeous looks and the scenes in Paris are to die for. I also found it incredibly romantic even if we always knew how problematic the relationship was and how it would probably end. Gorgeous film, beautifully acted all around. I hope Alfred Molina--who surprisingly didn't pick up a SAG nomination for his performance and who was robbed of an Oscar nod for FRIDA--is remembered come Oscar time.
I haven't seen ten good movies this year, then again I haven't gotten around to seeing movies like THE MESSENGER, A SINGLE MAN, BROKEN EMBRACES, UP IN THE AIR, IT'S COMPLICATED or NINE. But I will.
So far, if I had to vote, I'd vote for these:
-AN EDUCATION
-AVATAR
-UP
-JULIE & JULIA

I imagine the list will look something like this (only nine listed, not sure what the tenth one will be now that NINE flopped at the B.O):
-AVATAR
-AN EDUCATION
-THE HURT LOCKER
-INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
-INVICTUS
-PRECIOUS
-A SERIOUS MAN
-UP
-UP IN THE AIR

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:02pm

"Also, it's very possible less than 10 will be nommed--only first choices on the ballots are deemed eligible, thus if only 7 films get first choice, only seven would be nommed."


A film (or person) only has to get one first-choice vote in order to be eligible. After that, the other choices (second, third, etc.) help to break ties.

I'm sure that probably 30 or more films receive at least one first choice vote, since the entire 5,000-plus membership nominates for Best Pic.

And even if they only get the one vote, they are considered eligible. If the majority of the votes go to six or seven movies, and every other movie got just one vote, they would use the second and/or third choices to break the ties and come up with ten in the category. They do the same thing with the five slots for people. And there will never be six nominated in a category, because if two people tie for the fifth slot, they use the second and third-choice votes to break the tie.

That's how it works. As weird as it is.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:05pm

UP will be nominated in the Best Animated Film category, right? They haven't done away with that, have they?

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:08pm

The bad side is that if a strong movie, song, or performance fails to receive one single first-choice vote, it is ineligible.

Even if everyone nominating wrote it down as their second or third choice. Without the one first-choice vote, they're out of a nomination.

That's why there are some occasional big surprises in both the inclusions and exclusions.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:10pm

"UP will be nominated in the Best Animated Film category, right? They haven't done away with that, have they?"

Not at all. The category is still there. Not sure whether there will be three or five nominees. It has to do with how many animated films were released in 2009. If it's over a certain number, they increase the nominees to five.

But "Up" will very likely be a Best Picture contender as well. It's high on everyone's list, certainly in a year with ten nominees.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:10pm

But I was thinking a nominee had to pass a threshold of votes to be nominated?

Let's say 9 films get several first slot votes (and 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.) and are all clearly nominated. And a 10th film gets 1 first choice slot, and it's Old Dogs for some crazy reason, but it doesn't have any other or many votes. Does it get the 10th slot?

I know this is crazy theoretical as you are right: many are going to vote their "home team's" film as first choice, thus many films will be eligible. But, I was reading the process and its seemed to imply a threshold. But then again it was complicated as hell.

It's a crazy system. What IF Precious got all 2nd place votes? It would not be eligible even though most like it 2nd. But, I guess it would be fair if you considered everyone could get only one vote (and theoretically does only get one vote despite choosing 10 films).

Where am I? Huh?

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:15pm

These are the films I think will definitely be nominated this year.

(500) Days of Summer
An Education
Avatar
Broken Embraces
Precious
The Road
A Single Man
Up in the Air

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:15pm

"Let's say 9 films get several first slot votes (and 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.) and are all clearly nominated. And a 10th film gets 1 first choice slot, and it's Old Dogs for some crazy reason, but it doesn't have any other or many votes. Does it get the 10th slot?"

If "Old Dogs" was the ONLY movie (after your nine others) to get one first-choice vote, then it would get the slot. But I'm sure closer to 30 or more movies get at least one first-choice vote. So it would have to be very high up on everyone's list as a second or third choice to capture that tenth slot. Otherwise some other movie with one first-choice vote (and many second or third choices) would get it.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:16pm

No love for Bright Star? I adored that movie.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:22pm

Bright Star isn't thought to be a contender for Best Pic anymore. I know many loved it, but I had to leave midway or annoy the rest of the audience with my snoring. (Sorry).

b12b--I think the chances of my Old Dogs scenario is thankfully unlikely. But many think that it is because of this system that Dark Knight lost out to The Reader last year. It was probably on a ton of lists, but not high enough or what have you.

I wish the votes were weighted. Then, any film would have a shot based on how many votes and how much it was liked. And none of the films voted would be knocked out.

And, the tie breakers you mentioned are based on the ballots left over after the first round of counting. It's all so random.

Updated On: 12/31/09 at 02:22 PM

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:22pm

By the way, don't look for "Inglorious Basterds" to capture too many awards. It may score some nominations, but it's a Tarrantino film.

The unions all hate him since he refused to join. The Academy doesn't love him either. Not anymore. Only the "fringe rebel" voters might show him some love, and I don't think there would be enough support for him to actually win anything.

And yes, it's political. Very much so. It has nothing to do with the quality or critical reception of the film.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/31/09 at 2:25pm

Ah--very interesting point. But there are some big prognosticators who think it's gonna get it. I would have thought Up in the Air, but Avatar has swept in and apparently grabbed some buzz.

With 10 noms, the winner could win with a very small amount of the vote, so it could be anyone's game.