The Oscar Race - Best Picture- Page 3

[MaTakeALookAtMe]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 8:47pm

Same here...haven't seen enough to give my pic...it does seem that The Aviator, Neverland, have a lot of hoopla.

I do think that POTC stands a chance at nom. Not my cup of tea or the best of movies, but it wouldn't be the first time a pice of crap got a nom

[CurtainUp2]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 9:41pm

Anyone think that Mel's Passion of the Christ has a chance of getting a nod?

[Expressboy69]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 10:03pm

My Picks:

The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Phantom of the Opera
Finding Neverland
Sideways

I think it is a really close race, but I am almost positive Sideways will not win...I am rooting for Sunshine because that is like the best movie ever, but I think it will be 'Phantom' and 'Aviator' duking it out, considering the academy LOVES musicals.

[Plum]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 11:48pm

Does the Academy really LOVE musicals that much? Where does that impression come from? Chicago winning Best Picture does not a pattern make.

Yes, Moulin Rouge got a bunch of nominations, too, but it only won a couple of minor categories, as I remember. I'm just not seeing this adoration the Academy supposedly has for musicals.

[CurtainUp2]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:17am

A musical will not win two years in a row. And I doubt Phantom will even get nominated. Whenever they start quoting Larry King in T.V. promos and ads, instead of other more respected film critics, it's never a good sign.

Updated On: 12/9/04 at 12:17 AM

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:23am

I thought the movie hasn't come out in enough places for the respected critics to weigh in on it.

Lemme go check Metacritic again...

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:25am

Nope, no Phantom reviews. Not even on MRQE, which is more extensive.

[kangaroo]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:27am

Eternal Sunshine
Finding Neverland (plus actor)
Ray (plus actor)
The Aviator (plus director)
The Passion of the Christ (plus director)

These are the ones I think deserve to be nominated... I wonder if Ocean's Twelve could at least get a nomination for the golden globes. And bridget Jones 2.

I do not think that POTO deserves to even be nominated. My assumption is ... if it does well enough in theaters... it will be nominated for the Golden Globes, but not the Oscars. I don't think it will win the golden globes though.

[CurtainUp2]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:28am

Plum... I found a few.

Edit: Correction. Just one. And not by a major critic. But here's the link anyway.

http://www.shadowsonthewall.co.uk/04/phanoper.htm

Updated On: 12/9/04 at 12:28 AM

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:40am

So it's really not indicative of the quality of the film that they can't quote the major critics, Curtain.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:45am

THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST will not, and should not be nominated for ANYTHING. I thought it was an awful bunch of crap.

What about FARENHEIT 9/11? Is it ineligible?

I don't think PHANTOM will be nominated - not based on the quality of the movie, I just can't see it happening. I would love to see FINDING NEVERLAND win this year, but I think it will be a Golden Globes movie, and kind of snubbed by the academy.

What about Garden State?

[kangaroo]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 12:47am

What are the chances of Troy being nominated for anything? It was open during the summer... which you know that now is real oscar time...

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:00am

Hm. I think Garden State could be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, but I'm not sure about Best Picture.

[CurtainUp2]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:10am

"So it's really not indicative of the quality of the film that they can't quote the major critics, Curtain."

Well actually Plum that's not necessarily true. If Larry King has seen it (not to mention a few people on this board) then I'm sure the major critics have seen it as well. And in the past, I've seen movie studios use positive blurbs from major critics in their advertisments before their reviews appeared in print. The fact is, there's very little positive buzz about this film.

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:16am

I'm guessing Larry King talked about it on air, while those other reviews haven't been published yet. But maybe you're right; I have no idea. I'm hoping for this film to succeed just because its failure could kill movie musicals for another 20 years. I don't particularly like the show.

[CurtainUp2]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:23am

I'm not a big fan of the show either, but I was hoping they'd be able to pull it off. And then I heard that Schumacher was directing. Ugh! The man who single handedly killed the entire Batman franchise. I saw an extended preview of it earlier on E.T. and it didn't look too bad. So, who knows? They'll be getting my 10 bucks either way. Got to see it. If only to bitch.

[feinstein9]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 4:28am

>>Yes, Moulin Rouge got a bunch of nominations, too, but it only won a couple of minor categories, as I remember.

however, it was NOMINATED for best actress AND best picture.

also, has anyone seen the life aquatic or beyond the sea? i haven't heard buzz for either one but they both look good. dame?

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 4:33am

You don't actually have to see the films to win an Oscar pool. It's all about buzz.

I predict right now that The Aviator will win and that Scorsese will finally get his Oscar. Have I seen the film? Not yet.

POTO will prob not be nominated. Have I seen it? Nope.

Million Dollar Baby and Sideways are The Aviator's main competition--haven't seen em yet.

Sunshine and Garden State will have to be happy with screenplay noms--POSSIBLY Best Director nom for one of them (likely Gondry). I HAVE seen those films--they are two of my favorites of the year.

I wouldn't entirely rule out The Incredibles either for a slot.

[BlueEyedKate]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:56pm

Fahrenheit is eligible -- but I don't see it winning (or even getting a nom). Bowling for Columbine was a far better MM "documentary" than Fahrenheit, IMO.

I can't imagine POTO getting a nom. Sorry, I just don't think it's happening.

My money is on The Aviator, Ray, Sideways definitely getting noms. Maybe Eternal Sunshine as well...

And ewww to the Passions of the Christ. Just ewwww....I didn't find anything artistically (or otherwise) notable about that movie.

[JohnPopa]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:04pm

Actually, I did better at Oscar pools before I started seeing every movie that comes out.

Now I let crazy things like 'quality' distract me.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 4:56pm

Phantom of the Opera could be a big enough box office hit to get a nom, especially at this time of year. Troy received mixed reviews (though better than Alexander) and was quickly forgotten. It might get some design nods, but that's it.

I don't know about Million Dollar Baby. I watched the trailer and read about it and it looks way over-the-top melodramatic. The trailer itself contained too much heart-tugging cliche dialogue. I'm a bit skeptical about this one.

[Cyndy]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 8:58pm

I just got back from seeing Finding Neverland. I'd love to see this movie and Johnny Depp and/or the young actor who plays Peter get a nomination. This was the first film I've seen in a theater in a long time...I need to play catch up on the rest of the list.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 9:35pm

I can't believe no one's mentioned KINSEY yet. It's one of the best-reviewed movies of the year, and it's the only biopic I've seen in years that actually works. I think Bill Condon has revolutionized the biopic genre.

Of course, I'm also rooting for THE INCREDIBLES, which had some amazingly sharp writing. I hope it takes the Award for Best Animated Picture (Shrek 2 was good, but it was essentially an inferior version of Shrek 1).

Updated On: 12/9/04 at 09:35 PM

[spiderdj82]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 9:44pm

Ok, here is what I found by reading reviews from certain people. These people who have given it negative reviews hate the show itself so OF COURSE they would hate the movie. Same with Schumacker. Those who hate him automatically go into this going, "Well if he directed it, it has to be bad." And that is really unfair. I am not just saying this because I am a fan of the show I am saying this as a part of the movie going public. It is the same with anything. If there is an actor in it that you do not like, you go in with pre-conceived hatred for it because that one actor is in it. Not all the time, but a good bit. I just think people need to wait to see the movie to actually give out opinions whether or not is going to be nominated or not. Those like Dame who have actually seen the movie can give out their opinions and I respect what they say because everyone is entitled to thier own opinion, but everyone else saying it is going to suck and stuff, just need to wait and watch it first.

Ok, my ranting is done.

[Plum]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 9:50pm

Actually, I'm seeing a bit of the opposite phenomenon here as well- if it has Johnny Depp, it must be good, right?