2007 Leading Actor in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders

[StephenSondheimWHOO]

Posted: 11/18/06 at 11:22pm

We have our thread abouut the ladies but what about the gentlemen
My Predictions
Raul Esparza
Gavin Lee
Michael Cerveris
David Hyde Peirce
Alexander Gemini(sp) or Norm Lewis

[rose_pearl]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 1:14am

It may be wishful thinking, but Brian d'Arcy James never disappoints. = ]

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 1:22am

Raul Esparza
Jonathan Groff
David Hyde Pierce
Michael Cerveris
Gavin Lee/Will Chase

Regardless of how HIGH FIDELITY is received, I think Will Chase could have an edge over Gavin Lee. Chase has been a replacement on Broadway for years, always very well received, and if LENNON hadn't been so awful last year (the only other role he's ever originated), he would have received a nomination. Lee is making his Broadway debut in a British Disney import that received so-so reviews (even if he was the best thing about it).

Also, as much as I *adore* Michael Arden, the fact that THE TIMES... received across the board pans, and, in my opinion, the music didn't feature the best of his voice very well, I'd say he's out of luck. But in his next Broadway venture, he's sure to receive recognition.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 01:22 AM

[James2]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 8:52am

I think Patrick Page may have a chance, but not a big one.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:18am

Will Marc Kudisch be considered leading or featured?

[theatreguy]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:28am

Kudisch will be featured. His role is by far the smallest of the 3 leads in Apple Tree.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:37am

It's far too early.

[Horton]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:38am

I have a feeling that Company will not do well, and so Raul wont have any nomination, I would be suprised if it stays open untill the Tony's

[Horton]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:38am

I have a feeling that Company will not do well, and so Raul wont have any nomination, I would be suprised if it stays open untill the Tony's

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:40am

Horton, obviously you haven't read the reviews of COMPANY from out of town. It received favorable reviews, with Raul getting across the board RAVES. He *is* the front-runner in this category, and he will WITHOUT A DOUBT receive a nomination, and most likely win.

[bwayondabrain]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:45am

yeah, Raul will most certainly be nominated

um, i dont follow actors as much, but Foster's predictions sound good, except i do think Lee would get the nomination over Chase

[mijofly19]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:52am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe when I walked past The Apple Tree poster the other day that Kudisch was above the title. The only one listed below was Walter Charles. The producers could request for him to be Featured, but the poster I saw definitley had him over the title.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:56am

I think David Hyde Pierce is going to be hard to beat.

[neomystyk29]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 10:04am

Raul Esparza
David Hyde Pierce
Brian D'Arcy James
Michael Cerveris
Gavin Lee

Sorry to Les Mis but I don't think the show will fare well at the tonys. I have to predict that Raul will take the tony.

[nobodyhome]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 10:13am

Only time will truly tell, but at the moment I'd say that David Hyde Pierce is the front runner, with Gavin Lee giving him his main competition.

I think that even if Company gets mixed reviews and has closed by the Tonys, Esparza may well be nominated, but I don't think he has much chance of winning with at least two very strong competitors.

And did either LuPone or Cerveris win? And those are better roles than Robert.

Right now, I'd put my money on Hyde Pierce or Lee. We'll see.

Wanna Be A Foster, if you read the out of town reviews for Curtains you saw that Hyde Pierce got fantastic reviews. And we don't even have to wonder at this point whether the New York critics will agree with the London critics about Lee. It certainly is possible that Esparza will win. But at the moment he could not be said to be the front runner. At most he could be considered a front runner, along with Hyde Pierce and Lee. Realistically speaking.


Updated On: 11/19/06 at 10:13 AM

[Horton]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 10:22am

Lets look at the last John Doyl Smash, people loved it, got great reviews, where is it now? Where are its TONY's?

[nobodyhome]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 10:38am

Btw, I like Marc Kudisch a lot, but his roles in The Apple Tree are not good enough for him to be likely to even get a featured nomination unless it's a very weak field. I do think that the producers will probably request that he be in that category, but the roles are nothing.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 10:55am

Lets look at the last John Doyl Smash, people loved it, got great reviews, where is it now? Where are its TONY's?

One of its Tonys is with director John Doyle. Its other Tony is with orchestrator Sarah Travis.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 10:55 AM

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 11:03am

Do you hear it? My head smashing into a wall?

Raul will be nominated no matter what. No matter how the show does. Even if it were a total wreck, which it's not, the guy got nominated for Taboo, for God's sake; that's like an exercise in immunity to bad theater. I don't know how much I buy into the cross-seasonal comparison that Lovett and Sweeney are better roles than Robert. Even if they are in some sort of objective comparison, drawing it between two seasons is irrelevant. Besides, good reviews don't even dictate Tonys anymore. It's all f*cking politics, many of which are going to line up in Raul's favor. Horton, you're simplifying it far too much.

If he loses to someone in a Disney show, I guarantee you all will hear the sound of my head smashing into the wall.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 11:03 AM

[nobodyhome]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 11:50am

I don't really care that much about this and I'm amazed that others do, but it can be fun to speculate.

I do wonder what political factors you think are going to line up in Esparza's favor, luvtheEmcee. He didn't get nominated for Chitty.

I think it's worth noting, as I'm sure you're all aware, that no performer from Doyle's Sweeney won.

I do think that Esparza will probably be nominated, but I think it's way premature to think that he is somehow the front-runner or a shoo-in. Even if he had no strong competition that we knew of yet, it would be premature. But knowing that he will have at least two strong competitors . . . well, I hope there aren't mass suicides among the Raulites if he doesn't win.

[PJMPirate]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 12:05pm

Is Patrick Page eligible for The Grinch? I know it's only on for 2 months or so, but he got great reviews from pretty much everyone.

[mijofly19]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 12:13pm

Patrick Page is eligible, but seeing that his show will have been closed for five months, I doubt he will receive a nomination.

[jv92]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 12:24pm

Gavin Lee, David Hyde Pierce and Raul Esparza are all huge contenders right now, with the edge going to Esparza. The kudos he's been getting from "Being Alive" alone makes me think he might just win.

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 12:28pm

Nobodyhome, I think there are a few; if Cerveris gets nominated, that's one, because they were up against each other just a few years ago and Cerveris won. Even without Cerveris, though, the notion that he "deserved to win" back then might come back, if people feel that way. Contrary to what you said, I'd assume there's something underlying in the fact that none of Doyle's actors got awards last year, which could possibly work in his favor if the powers that be feel they should strongly consider one this year. I've said this before, but I think putting him above the title almost assumes success come Tony time, but I also think the strategy could work both ways. I don't think this is comparable to Chitty in several ways, not the least of which is that that was a season with a much, much longer list of eligible actors for the category. Chitty was also not the kind of show in which it would really matter who played the parts. It was well-cast, but in the grand scheme, I can't imagine many people gave a damn who was in it. A lot of these sound sort of inconsequential, and they may not matter -- but, they may very well, too. This stuff rarely makes sense.

I know I'm probably making quite a few excuses, but I'm still hopeful. Maybe too much so in light of my bias, which I don't hide, but hopefully don't allow to go so far that my two cents are discounted. And being that so much of it IS political, obviously there's no real telling what will matter and what won't. It's totally premature to assume he's got it in the bag. I'll certainly live if the crapshoot falls differently, but I'd like to see him get what I think he deserves.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 12:28 PM

[Becoz_i_knew_you21]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 12:29pm

If Esparza does not get nominated I will feel inclined to hurt myself. Maybe.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 12:29 PM