Donna Murphy indeed won just about every NY-theater-based award she was eligible for prior to the Tonys in '04 for her star turn in WONDERFUL TOWN. She was the obvious front-runner but it was thought she wouldn't win because of all the bad press she was getting, Tonya Pinkins was probably the most obvious choice after Murphy. I believe Menzel was definitely a surprise.
Ebersole *will* win the award. The buzz with McDonald is about her giving a great performance...the same way she always does, Ebersole's performance hasn't been called "great" but "legendary." Murphy could've been her strongest competitor but with the mixed buzz LoveMusik is getting (some people rave about her performance and call it her best since PASSION, others say she sounds like Betty Boop inhaling helium) she is probably out of the running. Murphy and McDonald will probably compete for Drama Desk, Outer Critics et al but now I'm convinced that Ebersole will most likely win the award.
Videos