5th Leading Actress in a Musical Slot speculation- Page 4

[DickonDefysGravity]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 7:52pm

Unfortunately, I think Brown will snag the 5th spot.

Chenoweth or Audra will win. Guaranteed. Hopefully Chenoweth.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 7:54pm

I'll bet, he said, sarcastically.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 7:56pm

Dickon, do you mean the OCC Awards. If you don't, you might be forgetting Chrisitne Ebersole.

[jbdc]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 10:34pm

I still think it's gonna be Lea Michele. I can't explain why...just my gut. I freely admit I may be way off the mark here, but whatever.

As far as Ahley Brown detractors--if you've read any of the Mary Poppins books, Mary is way different than in the film--she's a little scary. So while Ashley is nothing like Julie Andrews, she is that character.

[MungoGypsy8232]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:17pm

I'm all for Ashley over Laura and Lea over Debra, I'm just partial to Ashley since I've seen her in Beauty and the Beast. Good prediction jbdc!

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:21pm

Guys. the Outer Critics Circle nominations in no way predict the Tony nominations, and are a reflection of NOTHING.

Ashley Brown will not snag the 5th spot, and declaring so now just because of the OCC nominations is silly. Look at some of their past nominees.

[songanddanceman2]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:25pm

i agree 100 percent with munk

[theaterdude87]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:37pm

I third that.

[ashbash1990]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:41pm

I'm waiting for an Upset nomination-wise...

[Elphie3]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:47pm

I think - and I don't agree with this, but politically what I think will happen is Kristin won't get a nom. and LM and LBB will get nominations.

Side note... do you think Xantheel Brick ("Coram Boy") will get a nom for best actress in a play? I think she diserves it.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:48pm

Who or what is LM?

[iluvny04]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:48pm

I maty risk getting stoned by all the Ebersole lovers by saying his, but don't start celebrating until the Tony is actually given out, cause nothing is final yet. Upsets have ocurred in the past and I don't mean the whole Berndette/Marisa thing in 2003, but look at the entire thing with Tonya Pinkins for Caroline or Change, one of the best shows of the year and everyone thought that she was probably going the Tony, but then out of nowhere Idina wins for WICKED, remember what shock that was. All I am saying is that even though Christine's performance is definitely Tony worthy, nothing is final until Tony night when and if her name is announced, but I have no doubt she will sang a nonmination, but like I said nothing is final.

[Elphie3]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:49pm

LM - Lea Michele

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/23/07 at 11:52pm

Thanks.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 1:23am

luv: While you are correct in that we shouldn't 100% bank on Ebersole winning, to compare her buzz to Pinkins' is incorrect.

While Tonya Pinkins was, by many, considered the frontrunner for the Tony - she didn't win EVERY SINGLE award leading up to the Tonys as Ebersole has. Pinkins' reviews were good, but not ANYWHERE near as fanatical and awe-inspired as Ebersole's are.

Yes, Idina Menzel's win was an upset...but that was NOTHING like this year.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 1:32am

munk thank you for correcting me, and who knows maybe Christine will take a home tony, maybe she won't, but whatever happens I can't wait to see the surprises this yr.'s tonys has in store. If christine doesn't win, which is very slim, who do you think has the potential to take the prize.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 1:38am

I don't think there's any chance that she won't win.

Regardless of how great Audra is, they will not award her an unprecedented 5th Tony when she's up against someone like Ebersole.

All of the other projected nominees already have awards. Debra Monk doesn't have a chance, and while Kristin Chenoweth is probably due for another Tony, she won't be getting it for THE APPLE TREE.

Donna Murphy is in an odd piece and she already has 2 Tonys. Ebersole only has one, for a performance that was strong, but forgettable. There is NO way they won't give her this.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 1:41am

So what your syaing that Christine is basically the Helen Mirren of the Tonys. Now who do you think could be a potential Jennifer Hudson or she have that title too.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 1:56am

I don't see comparisons to the Oscars.....

Jennifer Hudson went from nobody to an Oscar winner. I...don't even know how you can draw parallels.

I feel, with a certain amount of confidence, that Mary Louise Wilson will win the Tony.

[jbdc]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 8:35am

I never said Ashley Brown would get the fifth slot for the Tony noms.

I was just defending her performance.

My prediction, as it has been for weeks is Lea Michele, and as I said before--I don't honestly know why. Maybe because it's braver than the other "5th slot contenders."

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 8:46am

Idina winning is really considered an upset? Granted I missed Caroline or Change, but still.

jbdc - stranger things have happened, but don't get your hopes up. Michele's part is too small compared to everyone else who has the ability to be nominated for Lead Actress.


I don't understand what the problem is - Ebersole's performance is one of the most lauded in history. If she won all the awards this season, all of you would be on her bandwagon. Since she won them last season, you're all ruling her out for some reason?

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 8:52am

If anything, Donna Murphy was the favorite going into the 2004 Tonys. Didn't she win everything prior to the Tony's? Her case is different from Ebersole's though and some felt Murphy's absences hurt her chances for the Tony.

[jbdc]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 9:03am

Oh no--I think Ebersole's going to win, and deservedly so. And after her--hands down, Audra comes in second. So yeah--I guess this thread has no point.

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 9:06am

"I don't understand what the problem is - Ebersole's performance is one of the most lauded in history. If she won all the awards this season, all of you would be on her bandwagon. Since she won them last season, you're all ruling her out for some reason?"

Amen! And to add to that...here's Ben Brantley's rave on audio. (I've never heard such a wonderful review. Amazing!)
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/arts/20061224_BRANTLEY_AUDIOSS/blocker.html

I still say she'll win.
PS-Idina winning wasn't that big an upset. The awards were split between Donna Murphy and Tonya Pinkins that year. (Personally I think perhaps that split the vote and allowed Idina to win.)

[somethingwicked]

Posted: 4/24/07 at 10:24am

Ebersole is still obviously the clear frontrunner (and will remain so up until the night of the ceremony,) but McDonald is starting to pick up steam with some very strong buzz early in previews. Will it be enough for her to upset?, probably not, but it is undeniably making what was previously thought to be a closed race all the more interesting.