Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)

I was in my beloved NYC last week and there was just no convincing someone I encountered at TKTS about the musical "Mary Poppins". He persisted to tell me (and I keep up with theater very closely) that Mary Poppins would win the Tony for best musical. I said no it wouldn't; the only Disney musical to win was "The Lion King" and Mary Poppins' reviews didn't exactly live up to those of the "Lion King".
He said because it was touring it would win.
My feeling-it won't win-if it goes on tour, it'll sell on name-everyone knows the story. Something lesser known will win, in my opinion. (Look at 2004-Ave. Q) Yes, I have my hopes-read my profile to see what those could be. (I definitely have a personal fave for best musical. But, I'm realistic. I'll be satisfied if my 2 faves split some major awards and can manage to stay open through 6/10, when I go to the Tonys.)

Honestly i hope it doesnt win... something like Spring Awakening should win or Grey Gardens something not Disney! And let people talk about who they want to win its their own opinion we wont know for sure until all the nominations come in.

It's too early.

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I would love this award to go to SA or GG but I have a feeling it will go to something like Poppins or Pirate Queen.

You haven't seen Pirate Queen, have you?

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Updated On: 1/5/07 at 11:02 AM

A show won't win Best Musical if it is not NOMINATED for Best Musical. The nominating committee of 25 New Yorkers don't give a fuck about which show is the most commercial. MARY POPPINS doesn't have a shot in hell at getting a nomination for Best Musical.

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Yeah, fortunately, no one on the nominating committee has any vested interested in any show.

Oh, wait...

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There are never any givens where the committee is concerned. They oftentimes go so far in the other direction so as to be ludicrous. I've always felt like it came down to popularity contests in the end. All board predictions are pretty much useless.

Best commercial show? I guess Wicked is a bomb compared to Avenue Q....

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I realize I should know this, but when are the nominations out?

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Finally! Someone spelled that damn word right.

I hope the nominators don't even nominate Poppins.

*Edited

Updated On: 1/5/07 at 01:22 PM

Explain "snobs"?

WBAF: You are right. However, the nominators are not going to overlook commercial hits just as they are not going to nominate an entirely artistic slate. "Tarzan" understandably did not get a nomination last year, but to rule out "Mary Poppins" this early in the game doesn't quite wash. While it didn't get out and out raves from the critics, it didn't get panned either. (Much like "The Lion King.") So I wouldn't count it out just because it's a commercial hit. Not yet. There is still a lot left to the season.

One thing is for sure, there are certainly going to be a lot of choices this year and it will be an interesting race.

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