Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
aepratt
Swing Joined: 10/3/06
#1Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 6:57am
I was in my beloved NYC last week and there was just no convincing someone I encountered at TKTS about the musical "Mary Poppins". He persisted to tell me (and I keep up with theater very closely) that Mary Poppins would win the Tony for best musical. I said no it wouldn't; the only Disney musical to win was "The Lion King" and Mary Poppins' reviews didn't exactly live up to those of the "Lion King".
He said because it was touring it would win.
My feeling-it won't win-if it goes on tour, it'll sell on name-everyone knows the story. Something lesser known will win, in my opinion. (Look at 2004-Ave. Q) Yes, I have my hopes-read my profile to see what those could be. (I definitely have a personal fave for best musical. But, I'm realistic. I'll be satisfied if my 2 faves split some major awards and can manage to stay open through 6/10, when I go to the Tonys.)
Yankeefan007
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/20/04
#2re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 7:55amGiven that the Tony voters vote for the best commerical show, Poppins winning wouldn't surprise me very much.
MamawhoBoreme
Stand-by Joined: 1/4/07
#2re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 8:06amHonestly i hope it doesnt win... something like Spring Awakening should win or Grey Gardens something not Disney! And let people talk about who they want to win its their own opinion we wont know for sure until all the nominations come in.
#3re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 8:52amI would love this award to go to SA or GG but I have a feeling it will go to something like Poppins or Pirate Queen
#4re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 9:01amIt's too early.
Josephine2
Leading Actor Joined: 9/29/06
#5re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 10:56amI agree...it's much too early to predict. People can speculate, but there are still shows that have yet to open. I've heard good buzz, for example, about "Curtains." We'll all just have to wait and see what unfolds in the next few months.
SueleenGay
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/9/03
#6re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:02am
I would love this award to go to SA or GG but I have a feeling it will go to something like Poppins or Pirate Queen.
You haven't seen Pirate Queen, have you?
SorryGrateful
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/10/05
#7re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:03am
"I would love this award to go to SA or GG but I have a feeling it will go to something like Poppins or Pirate Queen"
The people working on The Pirate Queen will have to pull off a gold-plated miracle to win Best Musical.
#8re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:05amA show won't win Best Musical if it is not NOMINATED for Best Musical. The nominating committee of 25 New Yorkers don't give a fuck about which show is the most commercial. MARY POPPINS doesn't have a shot in hell at getting a nomination for Best Musical.
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
MamawhoBoreme
Stand-by Joined: 1/4/07
#9re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:07am
"A show won't win Best Musical if it is not NOMINATED for Best Musical. The nominating committee of 25 New Yorkers don't give a **** about which show is the most commercial. MARY POPPINS doesn't have a shot in hell at getting a nomination for Best Musical."
I totally agree with you.
#10re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:10am
Yeah, fortunately, no one on the nominating committee has any vested interested in any show.
Oh, wait...
#11re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:11am
WBAF: I beg to differ. The Tony Awards are often about the commercial over the artistic - Thoroughly Modern Millie, for God's sake? La Cage Aux Folles? The Pajama Game revival?
The best that can be said is that they are inconsistent. Yes, artistic productions have deservedly gotten nominations and have won bushels of Tony Awards. But just as frequently the big box office winner has taken all of the nominations and awards deservedly or not.
BreeDaniel
Broadway Star Joined: 1/25/04
#12re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:15amThere are never any givens where the committee is concerned. They oftentimes go so far in the other direction so as to be ludicrous. I've always felt like it came down to popularity contests in the end. All board predictions are pretty much useless.
#13re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 11:16amD2, Tony Award WINS for Best Musical tend to be commercial over artistic. WINS are decided by voters from all over the country, many of whom are out of town theater owners who can benefit from a commercial show coming and playing their town. The NOMINATIONS are determined by the nominating committee, 25 New Yorkers (president of BC/EFA, president of The Actor's Fund, set designers, costume designers, lyricists, actors, ARTISTS) who make no money off of favoring a commercial show over an artistic show. The shows need to make it through them before they get to the voters.
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
#14re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 12:30pmBest commercial show? I guess Wicked is a bomb compared to Avenue Q....
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/4/04
#15re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:11pmI think POPPINS has a very good chance of a nomination, but it is a bit early.
SorryGrateful
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/10/05
#16re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:12pmI realize I should know this, but when are the nominations out?
#17re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:15pm2nd week in May.
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
BSoBW2
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/8/04
#18re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:17pmFinally! Someone spelled that damn word right.
Amneris
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/16/03
#19re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:21pmwho cares who wins? Tonys don't always help a show.
#20re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:22pm
I hope the nominators don't even nominate Poppins.
*Edited
Updated On: 1/5/07 at 01:22 PM
#21re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 1:30pm
Well, as ridiculous as it is, speculation this early is fun.
Predictions? Not necessarily, but speculation? Yes.
It was awesome. - theaterkid1015
CurtainPullDowner
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/4/04
#22re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 4:10pmExplain "snobs"?
purpleprince101
Broadway Legend Joined: 10/19/06
#23re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 4:13pmtoo early to tell.....but who knows. Best Musical award always seems to give it to the wrong person.
#24re: Anyone Else Think This Early Tony Prediction is Ridiculous? (I do!)
Posted: 1/5/07 at 4:56pm
WBAF: You are right. However, the nominators are not going to overlook commercial hits just as they are not going to nominate an entirely artistic slate. "Tarzan" understandably did not get a nomination last year, but to rule out "Mary Poppins" this early in the game doesn't quite wash. While it didn't get out and out raves from the critics, it didn't get panned either. (Much like "The Lion King.") So I wouldn't count it out just because it's a commercial hit. Not yet. There is still a lot left to the season.
One thing is for sure, there are certainly going to be a lot of choices this year and it will be an interesting race.
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