"Oscar does get a standing ovation halfway through act one"
You say that as if it were written into the script. Is this a thing? Has he been getting standing ovations after that number at most performances? There was no one standing when I saw the show.
Anyway, I'm personally rooting for Christian Borle. I thought Borle, John Cariani, and Peter Bartlett had the only funny roles in the show (yes, including Brad Oscar). Considering the other two weren't nominated, I'd love to see it go to Borle.
As for plays, I think Alessandro Nivola should win. I thought he was criminally misplaced in the featured category, after giving a fantastic LEADING performance along with Cooper. I'd love to see Nivola recognized to make up for that politically-driven insult to his performance.