Best Musical: Who Will Win? Who Will Upset? — Page 2

"the most logical choice is In the Heights, given how appealing it would be to road promoters."

Not sure I agree with this. I think it's a pretty hard sell in many parts of the country.

Does it matter jaystarr? Cry-Baby has a shot in hell of getting nominated.

I'm going to say a In The Heights win, with a very big chance for a Xanadu upset.

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do you remember Spring Awakening's grosses before the Tony's ???? Come on people.

XANADU is be BEST MUSICAL of the year. The road is going to LOVE this thing.

>I just don't know if some road voters will pick A CATERED AFFAIR.<

Road voters are not responsible for the Tony nominations. The Tony nominators are almost entirely New York-based and generally have a different objective than Tony voters, who mostly vote their wallets.

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Yeah, I just think In The Heights is really derivative. And I don't think it will be a good tour show at all.

Passing Strange has some real guts - I love that about it.

The nominations are done by committee with the award bestowed by the whole voting body - so unfortunately the dreadful Passing Strange will get nominated, but the award will be given to In The Heights. I would be happy with that or with Xanadu. The fourth nominee will be Young Frankenstein and not A Catered Affair due to momentum, not quality. I just hope that Douglas Carter Beane's creative & hilarious book for Xanadu gets a Tony. I'd also really love for Christopher Ashley to at least get a nomination, but not sure either will happen.

So my prediction:

In The Heights
Passing Strange
Xanadu
Young Frankenstein

What book could beat Beane's?

Am I in the minority thinking that due to the hit-or-miss reviews of several shows, and the sheer small production scale of many shows this season, that YF could end up netting more than we're assuming. Granted, it won't sweep like The Producers, but why is everyone so quick to write it off alongside poorly reviewed original musicals and/or successful but ultimately best-kept-secret minimalistic type shows? Perhaps I'll end up eating crow, but until then, I can't help but think it might at least rack up a slew on nominations.

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In the Heights wins, with the potential for Xanadu to sneak up on them.

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I love Harvey and I actually like this show second to Xanadu. It has vision and distinction and some touching moments. but I think it is Harvey's weakest writing to date (still strong obviously because of his great talent), but still there are a lot of wholes for me in the story and his insistence on sentimentality and spoon-feeding the audience the theme the way he does is not good enough.

I cried the first time I saw it - I was moved, so I want to say that - I did have a personal experience, which I owe to the show.

However, standing back and looking at the two books, both adaptations of films, the inventiveness of Beane's work is paramount this year in the Book category. I realize they are so different tonally, but I don't feel Harvey did has much for his drama as Beane did for his comedy.

Just my opinion.

Passing Strange over Xanadu.

In the Heights will win, but Passing Strange would be a thrilling upset.

This is going to be an excting race

And I agree with all who think YF will get more than most think now. It's just when YF got its mixed reviews everyone by then expected it to be the major hit. But since then most shows have gone the path of mixed (or worse) reviews as well.

That said, I think the only show one can basically count out is Cry-Baby. But besides that, all have their merits, none having merits that are very strong but what the heck. Always remember the critics called the great parts of the score of West Side Story "not very memorable" back when it opened. Most shows get their appreciation ex post.