Best Musical: Who Will Win? Who Will Upset?- Page 2

[DG]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:11am

"the most logical choice is In the Heights, given how appealing it would be to road promoters."

Not sure I agree with this. I think it's a pretty hard sell in many parts of the country.

[jaystarr]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:17am

I personally want PASSING STRANGE to win, but most likely IN THE HEIGHTS will win...

I will still go with my four nominations predictions: IN THE HEIGHTS, PASSING STRANGE, XANADU & A CATERED AFFAIR.

I saw A CATERED AFFAIR this weekend and I like it...I was disappointed about the reviews...I am not agreeing with the some critics on this one~ It think its a beautiful show bec. its SIMPLE!

I do like YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN- its enjoyable- I will give it to them them.. like what I said... its ENJOYABLE while your watching the show but somehow it does not stay with you for a long time! That's why I thought A CATERED AFFAR is far more superior show bec. It is a MEMORABLE show!

BTW- I still have not seen CRY-BABY!

J*

Updated On: 4/27/08 at 11:17 AM

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:22am

Does it matter jaystarr? Cry-Baby has a shot in hell of getting nominated.

I'm going to say a In The Heights win, with a very big chance for a Xanadu upset.

[jaystarr]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:25am

and also I have not seen GLORY HOLES neither...oops I mean GLORY DAYS!

I am a big supporter of XANADU as everyone here knew.. I am one of the 'original' fANADU.. but I HIGHLY doubt if it will win!

Most likely...its a PASSING STRANGE upset!

J*

Updated On: 4/27/08 at 11:25 AM

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:39am

do you remember Spring Awakening's grosses before the Tony's ???? Come on people.

XANADU is be BEST MUSICAL of the year. The road is going to LOVE this thing.

[scaryclowns223]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 11:56am

I enjoyed XANADU, I really did...

But for me, it couldn't even compare to IN THE HEIGHTS or PASSING STRANGE. I would predict IN THE HEIGHTS to win, but I would be fine with either IN THE HEIGHTS or PASSING STRANGE taking it. They were the two best musicals for me.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN got a nomination.

My predictions:

IN THE HEIGHTS
PASSING STRANGE
XANADU
YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN

(I just don't know if some road voters will pick A CATERED AFFAIR.)

[Smaxie]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 12:19pm

>I just don't know if some road voters will pick A CATERED AFFAIR.<

Road voters are not responsible for the Tony nominations. The Tony nominators are almost entirely New York-based and generally have a different objective than Tony voters, who mostly vote their wallets.

[MisterRussell]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 3:06pm

i haven't seen any of this season's shows, being on the West coast. But I have studied Tony History for years, and the most important thing to remember is that THE TONY AWARD FOR BEST MUSICAL IS NOT ABOUT BEING THE "BEST MUSICAL."

It's about being the musical with the most marketability.

Lion King over Ragtime?

Millie over Urinetown?

It'll always be the most "sellable" show, folks. Keep that in mind, and you'll have your winner, not that it matters.

The only Tonys worth anything, as evidenced by the fact that the winners almost always deserve it, are those for BEST SCORE.

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 6:54pm

Yeah, I just think In The Heights is really derivative. And I don't think it will be a good tour show at all.

Passing Strange has some real guts - I love that about it.

[Ed_Mottershead]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 6:58pm

In 1960, Sound of Music tied with Fiorello for best musical.

[buddharich]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 7:14pm

The nominations are done by committee with the award bestowed by the whole voting body - so unfortunately the dreadful Passing Strange will get nominated, but the award will be given to In The Heights. I would be happy with that or with Xanadu. The fourth nominee will be Young Frankenstein and not A Catered Affair due to momentum, not quality. I just hope that Douglas Carter Beane's creative & hilarious book for Xanadu gets a Tony. I'd also really love for Christopher Ashley to at least get a nomination, but not sure either will happen.

So my prediction:

In The Heights
Passing Strange
Xanadu
Young Frankenstein

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 7:22pm

I think A CATERED AFFAIR will get a nod over YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN for multiple reasons (they gave Brooks twelve Tonys for THE PRODUCERS being the main reason).

At this point, I see the nominees easily being

A CATERED AFFAIR
PASSING STRANGE
XANADU or YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN
IN THE HEIGHTS

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/27/08 at 10:40pm

What book could beat Beane's?

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 1:15am

Harvey's

[rufussars]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 1:48am

Am I in the minority thinking that due to the hit-or-miss reviews of several shows, and the sheer small production scale of many shows this season, that YF could end up netting more than we're assuming. Granted, it won't sweep like The Producers, but why is everyone so quick to write it off alongside poorly reviewed original musicals and/or successful but ultimately best-kept-secret minimalistic type shows? Perhaps I'll end up eating crow, but until then, I can't help but think it might at least rack up a slew on nominations.

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 9:17am

yeah, I wouldn't count them out either.

However, I think Harvey's book, while I like some sweet parts of the show's overall delivery, is sophomoric compared to the invention of Douglas Carter Beane's satire.

[dancingthrulife04]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 9:47am

In the Heights wins, with the potential for Xanadu to sneak up on them.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 11:45am

I'm sure beane's book is great. I love his work. I need to see Xanadu. I wouldn't be surprised to find its the best book this year.

But let's not refer to fierstein's book as sophomoric. Its apples and oranges to compare those two pieces. ACA's book is award nomination worthy clearly. And the man has two Tonys for his writing.

[Humbert]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:06pm

I love Harvey and I actually like this show second to Xanadu. It has vision and distinction and some touching moments. but I think it is Harvey's weakest writing to date (still strong obviously because of his great talent), but still there are a lot of wholes for me in the story and his insistence on sentimentality and spoon-feeding the audience the theme the way he does is not good enough.

I cried the first time I saw it - I was moved, so I want to say that - I did have a personal experience, which I owe to the show.

However, standing back and looking at the two books, both adaptations of films, the inventiveness of Beane's work is paramount this year in the Book category. I realize they are so different tonally, but I don't feel Harvey did has much for his drama as Beane did for his comedy.

Just my opinion.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:34pm

I'm glad you liked ACA. I feel the book is way stronger than you did. But Beane getting awards is something I can agree on.

[WaltSummersPI]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:37pm

Passing Strange over Xanadu.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:37pm

Do we think IN THE HEIGHTS will take score as well?

[FMills]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:37pm

In the Heights will win, but Passing Strange would be a thrilling upset.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 12:51pm

IN THE HEIGHTS will win.

[FranklinShepard-Inc.]

Posted: 4/28/08 at 3:21pm

This is going to be an excting race

And I agree with all who think YF will get more than most think now. It's just when YF got its mixed reviews everyone by then expected it to be the major hit. But since then most shows have gone the path of mixed (or worse) reviews as well.

That said, I think the only show one can basically count out is Cry-Baby. But besides that, all have their merits, none having merits that are very strong but what the heck. Always remember the critics called the great parts of the score of West Side Story "not very memorable" back when it opened. Most shows get their appreciation ex post.