Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26 — Page 4

Mr. Wormwood said: "The NYT noted over a decade ago that only about 25% of Broadway shows each year turn a profit. I'd be willing to bet the new musical percentage even then was lower than 25%. 25% might be higher than it is now but it's not like 25% was a high probability and people still invested. People will always dream big and always chase the next Hamilton, Phantom, Wicked, etc."

I couldn’t find the 25% figure but if that’s even close to being true, that is the sort of percentage that would attract investors. Everybody thinks they can spot a hit, just like they believe they can beat the stock market averages or bet on the right football team. 

But we can all count the number of post-2020 hit new musicals on one hand, and everything but the inexpensive Six and The Outsiders was a jukebox show. There are a few possible exceptions still running, but the requirement that new musicals in for years just to break even is daunting.

I really enjoyed Maybe Happy Ending when I saw it a year ago. It won Best Musical, and the winning Best Actor is still with the show for a little while longer. But while the musical has been successful, it’s far from a sensation. And how long must it run just to break even? I don’t know. If I were a potential investor, that could spook me.

As Kad points out, the model for the starry play - usually a revival - seems to have a limited upside. Investors can make money, but not all that much.

I have been coming to New York City for theater trips for the last decade now, and an unpleasant thought just hit me. I’m not paying that much more for tickets than I did then. Hamilton skews the sample, as I paid much more in 2016 for seats in the rafters than I have for any show since. The only times I have paid more than $250 (barely) have been for the Merrily We Roll Along revival and Just in Time last month. Ticket prices haven’t kept up with expenses. While I may have gotten a little more savvy since 2016, I haven’t gotten that smarter. Local folks and people willing to buy cheaper seats or get rush tickets are doing better than me. That’s good for theatergoers, not producers or investors.

I don’t have any particular solution, but I am neither as filled with doom as some (lots of packed theaters on last month’s trip) nor as sanguine as others. The absence of government support for the arts, as exists in the UK, seems like it makes a big difference.

 

kdogg36 said: "

[...]


With that out of the way - do you not think it is absolutely crazy that Broadway producers sometimes (often, it seems) expect writers to work for free?"

 

Of course I agree. Absolutely everybody involved should be properly paid.

When there are problems the bucket's first stop should be at the producers and investors. After all, they are the ones who set the business up to make a profit, so they should also take the risk.
 

If the producers have good reasons to try to keep the show afloat despite lacking the money they should try to find more investors or talk to the landlord. Stay away from anyone employed by the show.

It may dip and dive and be slow but theater is not going to die. There will always be things in the pipeline and people willing to pay, and when they're not, they drop some starry revival or show and it goes right back up again. It's not always going to be recoupments and higher than ever grosses. I can't see a world in which all Broadway theaters close because people don't see shows anymore. I just don't.