Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26- Page 3
Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
witchoftheeast2
Leading Actor Joined: 9/25/24
#50Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 10:25am
Theater is not dying or dead. You can't expect every season to full of smash hits. How exactly do you expect to change the business model?
#51Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 10:26am
EDSOSLO858 said: "Kad - we may very well be heading back to the mid-'90s in terms of lighter Broadway seasons. The only question ishowlight the coming seasons will be."
Yes, we may well be- but my point is Broadway has had these periods and rebounded. It is far too early to fret about Broadway's viability.
#52Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 10:46am
witchoftheeast2 said: "Theater is not dying or dead. You can't expect every season to full of smash hits. How exactly do you expect to change the business model?"
You can’t unless the costs reduce. There are only two main variables, the revenue and the costs. I would suggest the revenue is pretty fixed right now and uncontrollable - audiences aren’t willing to pay more, theatres can’t get bigger. And it’s too difficult to understand how to create a smash hit that will run for years at capacity at high prices which seems to be the necessary condition for these shows to be financially viable.
Therefore, the only thing that can possibly budge is the costs but everyone keeps saying they can’t.
Well the numbers just don’t add up. I don’t think we can compare historic Broadway to now because Broadway has never had such a broken economic model before. When in recent history has almost no new musicals recouped over a period of 6 years? (Post COVID).
The only thing that will keep it going is people pouring money into shows accepting the risk they will lose it in even greater likelihoods than ever seen before. Well the word on the street, producer statements etc. seems to suggest it’s getting harder and harder for people to do this.
The new Broadway musical might not be dead, but it has to be dying because its life blood as a capitalist enterprise, money, is wearing too thin.
#53Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 11:08am
Mary_Poppins said: "No, kdogg36 clearly said: "The authors should get paid before anyone else, including the cast".
It was wrong of me to imply that the cast is not as important as the writers. I apologize for that.
With that out of the way - do you not think it is absolutely crazy that Broadway producers sometimes (often, it seems) expect writers to work for free?
DaveyG
Broadway Star Joined: 8/11/05
#54Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 11:26am
kdogg36 said: "Mary_Poppins said: "No, kdogg36 clearly said: "The authors should get paid before anyone else, including the cast".
It was wrong of me to imply that the cast is not as important as the writers. I apologize for that.
With that out of the way - do you not think it is absolutely crazy that Broadway producers sometimes (often, it seems) expect writers to work for free?"
Like Rick Elice said, it's baked into the current model and it's crazy.
#55Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 11:42am
Question: I have sometimes wondered if concessions and merchandise figures in into the weekly grosses. Just curious....
#56Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 1:49pm
Kad said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "Kad - we may very well be heading back to the mid-'90s in terms of lighter Broadway seasons. The only question ishowlight the coming seasons will be."
Yes, we may well be- but my point is Broadway has had these periods and rebounded. It is far too early to fret about Broadway's viability."
This. I can't help but wonder if the 2024/2025 tsunami of new musicals was broken up a bit with, say, Boop, Dead Outlaw, Real Women Have Curves and Operation Mincemeat opened this season instead of last season. There would have been breathing room for shows that had some very positive aspects about them to find audiences. And if that were to happen, maybe Titanique and Beaches wouldn't have jumped at coming in. This season feels so wan because so many shows opened last season. And some of those shows were solid but got smothered in their cribs from the absolute glut of new musicals. It felt exhausting.
MysteriousLady
Featured Actor Joined: 10/24/20
#57Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:12pm
It's pointless but I keep playing the "what if?" game myself. I hate that Real Women and Outlaw had no chance because of the crowded season, and can't help but wonder what would have happened to them if they opened this season. (Of course they could still have flopped this year as well).
DaveyG
Broadway Star Joined: 8/11/05
#58Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:19pm
It's hard not to play that game! Good shows flopped because of the glut of last year. And I predict some Tony winners this season that may not even have been nominated last season.
dan94
Stand-by Joined: 5/17/15
#59Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:19pm
Sutton Ross said: "I would say it's almost certain that none of this season's new musicals will recoup, which isn't going to encourage investors to put money in new musicals for next season or any future season.
Completely agree, many investors have already pulled way back and long term this is a very bad situation for musicals and Broadway in general."
I think the investment problem really is not the low percentage of shows that recoup. It's low, but taking a wider look at the industry it's not significantly lower than pre-pandemic years. The problem is the shows that do recoup are not disbursing returns like hits.
We're seeing a lot of these celebrity plays end up with an ROI of only about 10%. They aren't losing any money, but they aren't really making any money. The runs are too short for investors to get much return, and the runs are also too short to make up any ground for a couple underperforming weeks. Dorian Gray announced it recouped during the final week of its run. They may have ended up with a 10% return after the tax credit. Snook spent most of the run doing 6 or 7 performances a week, and they only ran for 16 weeks. They had a few weeks at the start of previews that were healthy, but not boffo business, and there was very little room to make up for that. Had she done 7 or 8 performances a week, and had it lasted 20 weeks, some real money could have been made. Instead they got away with definition bare minimum.
This has effects downstream. Investors don't have hits that offset some of the losses anymore. Oh Mary is about the only show since the pandemic to pay off like a hit musical. If we want a decent number of musicals running, there have to be returns to offset musical risks. We have to reject celebrities that have a 10 or 12 week gap in their schedule. The celebrity makes out terrifically. The overall industry gains nothing.
#60Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:26pm
Patti LuPone FANatic said: "Question: I have sometimes wondered if concessions and merchandise figures in into the weekly grosses. Just curious...."
They're not- it's purely ticketing.
Ensemble1698878795
Broadway Star Joined: 11/1/23
#61Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:26pm
The reality of the matter is that on top of labor costs being astronomically higher than ever before, we have a flood of Hollywood talent on Broadway. People are more inclined to spend their $200 on a celebrity in X play than a questionable new musical. The theater owners taste dictates the offerings and their selections haven't been top tier. It's a systemic issue in that regard. Revivals are a better bet because they're familiar and people have nostalgia for what they're seeing. I blame the powers that be. Lackluster new musicals don't program themselves.
#62Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:31pm
And that's the issue with the star-driven limited run model that's being championed by Seaview and other producers: these things can't really make much, if any, profit. They might get an award and they may break even. Rudin embraced that model, but he also had shows like Book of Mormon. Seaview and the other younger producers just are no good at developing new hit musicals, at least not yet.
RippedMan
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/14/05
#63Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 2:47pm
I think we are also - which may be because of the current model - lacking in new composer talent. Besides Lin Miranda, there doesn't seem to be any big composers making new musicals. It's all teams of people we don't really know about - like Death Becomes Her. There does not seem to be anything exciting in the pipeline besides Sara B's new musical.
Ensemble1698878795
Broadway Star Joined: 11/1/23
#64Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 3:27pm
RippedMan said: "I think we are also - which may be because of the current model - lacking in new composer talent. Besides Lin Miranda, there doesn't seem to be any big composers making new musicals. It's all teams of people we don't really know about - like Death Becomes Her. There does not seem to be anything exciting in the pipeline besides Sara B's new musical."
I don't think this is true. I think you are only aware of the musical talent you are exposed to. There's a pipeline of new writers that can't get 20 million behind their names because they are "nobodies." They're out there. The politics of them being seen is a different story.
#65Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 3:29pm
The composers are out there, believe me. Their works are not being produced at the Broadway level. They're getting degrees and winning awards and grants and then not having work produced.
(and Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, although not "names," have been out and working in NYC for a while)
witchoftheeast2
Leading Actor Joined: 9/25/24
#66Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 3:46pm
kdogg36 said: "Mary_Poppins said: "No, kdogg36 clearly said: "The authors should get paid before anyone else, including the cast".
It was wrong of me to imply that the cast is not as important as the writers. I apologize for that.
With that out of the way - do you not think it is absolutely crazy that Broadway producers sometimes (often, it seems) expect writers to work for free?"
I think it's more crazy for audiences to expect to pay very low prices if they want quality shows.
#67Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 3:59pm
The doom and gloom in this thread is just silly and keep in mind that some of these posters were convinced in 2020 that Broadway was over for good.
We have had one rough season in terms of number of new musicals. And yes I know a lot of new musicals aren't recouping in recent years but that is nothing new. That's been going on for forever. Sure maybe some investors are pulling back because of it but at some point there will be another project someone believes in or another can't miss prospect that will buoy other projects.
The Covid backlog was always going to dry up and there's a very high number of still running shows from previous seasons compared to some recent years that has played a factor. It's not like very many Broadway theaters are sitting empty. Back in the early 90s, it was routine to see more than half of the theaters empty even at busy times of the year. We're nowhere close to that.
Do I think we may see an uptick in limited run star power plays? Of course. But there's a big gap between that statement and something like "the new musical is at death's door."
Broadway is a copycat industry like so many others. What is working right now are star powered plays. But all it will take is one hugely successful musical, which will happen at some point, and you'll see everyone chasing that again. Honestly the Hamilton halo lasted probably until right about now and was bolstered by other original new titles along the way like Dear Evan Hansen, Come From Away and Hadestown.
It may be a dip at the moment but hardly a death knell. Come on people.
Ensemble1698878795
Broadway Star Joined: 11/1/23
#68Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 4:08pm
It may be a dip at the moment but hardly a death knell. Come on people."
This isn't doom and gloom, it's reality. Numbers don't lie. We didn't say Broadway is dying. We're saying new musicals being bankable is a dying trend and that's scary because if they don't sell well we will see less and less of them. This is fact.
#69Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 4:08pm
To further my point... something that doesn't get discussed enough is how many long-runners there are right now.
Right now, we have 21 shows from a previous season playing- mostly musicals but also three plays (Harry Potter, Stranger Things, Oh Mary)
Looking back in previous Aprils at how many shows from a previous season were still running:
2025 - 16 shows
2024 - 15 shows
2023 - 13 shows
2022 - 12 shows
Even pre-Covid in 2019, there were 19 shows.
So this is a very big number of unavailable theaters. Which may be harder for new musicals but certainly speaks to the overall health of Broadway and the art form of the musical
dramamama611
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/4/07
#70Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 4:16pm
RippedMan said: "I think we are also - which may be because of the current model - lacking in new composer talent. Besides Lin Miranda, there doesn't seem to be any big composers making new musicals. It's all teams of people we don't really know about - like Death Becomes Her. There does not seem to be anything exciting in the pipeline besides Sara B's new musical."
I think Dave Malloy would like to have a word with you. I'd plunk down big $ for almost anything he creates. No, it's not always stellar, but it is always interesting.
RippedMan
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/14/05
#71Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 5:36pm
dramamama611 said: "RippedMan said: "I think we are also - which may be because of the current model - lacking in new composer talent. Besides Lin Miranda, there doesn't seem to be any big composers making new musicals. It's all teams of people we don't really know about - like Death Becomes Her. There does not seem to be anything exciting in the pipeline besides Sara B's new musical."
I think Dave Malloy would like to have a word with you. I'd plunk down big $ for almost anything he creates. No, it's not always stellar, but it is always interesting."
I'll give you that for sure. I really enjoyed Great Comet. And hopefully the movie of Octet is good ( did not care for that one).
#72Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/15/26 at 8:13pm
Ensemble1698878795 said: "
It may be a dip at the moment but hardly a death knell. Come on people."
This isn't doom and gloom, it's reality. Numbers don't lie. We didn't say Broadway is dying. We're saying new musicals being bankable is a dying trend and that's scary because if they don't sell well we will see less and less of them. This is fact."
A dying trend? It has to be a trend to begin with to be a dying one and bankable new musicals has never been a trend.
The NYT noted over a decade ago that only about 25% of Broadway shows each year turn a profit. I'd be willing to bet the new musical percentage even then was lower than 25%. 25% might be higher than it is now but it's not like 25% was a high probability and people still invested. People will always dream big and always chase the next Hamilton, Phantom, Wicked, etc.
#73Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/16/26 at 3:07am
We now have Cameron Mackintosh and Sonia Friedman and Andrew Lloyd Webber saying explicitly the costs are unsustainable. In the NYtimes article with Sonia Friedman if I recall it explicitly says investors are less willing to part with money now. We have shows closing early, less shows recouping and less quality shows being mounted. I grant you we might need to wait a few more years to be sure but the evidence is not looking good.
Also, it’s been a long time coming and a slow death. Just look at what shows are presented today vs the past. Casts are smaller, orchestras are smaller, sets are smaller. To cope with the rising costs for years producers have been chipping away at the bone and found a way to make it work. However, there is a point where there is no meat left to cut and we’re getting dangerously close to that point now.
The tragedy is that the market for Broadway has never felt healthier. People are willing to pay top dollar. Theatres can be full for a while. But it’s just not enough anymore.
You will always find exceptions and there will always be SOMETHING on a stage somewhere but I think it would be naive not to see that this artform is suffering right now from these economics conditions and think that it can go on forever. It’s a capitalist enterprise ultimately. And capitalism doesn’t work without capital.
Broadway has been a place of innovation and experimental musicals for decades. In these conditions do you think we will see people take as many risks as they have in the past? I see it moving towards more commercial viability (think of the concern already raised that people aren’t taking risks on new composers), low cost star driven plays etc. We are almost already there now. Practically all other examples have, are or will lose loads of money that don’t make a compelling case for it to continue in future.
#74Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 4/12/26
Posted: 4/16/26 at 3:25am
The other concern is that the Tony for best musical used to almost ensure recoupment. Think fun home or gentlemen’s guide. Now it doesn’t. So it’s just yet another incentive removed and added risk now. Times is hard.
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