EW Vote: Is RENT due for #1?

Realistically, I don't think Rent has a chance of opening in the number one position. Harry Potter will only be in its 2nd week and it will surely dominate.

My guess is that both HP and Walk the Line will drop off next week...RENT can take #1 for sure, or at least deserves to!

---

Even if Harry Potter drops off 50% (which it will at the most, but I'm guessing a 40% drop) that's still $50 million that RENT would have to make to beat it. Only big blockbusters open with that, and RENT won't get that. I think if anything, it could give that stupid Johnny Cash movie a run for its money.

If you do the simple math, most films have a percentage drop-off of between 30% - 65% for the 3 DAY WEEKEND. Let's split the difference and say there will be a 50% decrease. That means HP would bring in about $50 Million. NO WAY "Rent" will do close to that. And word of mouth on "Goblet of Fire" is, well, on fire. Unanimous praise, so I bet that the %drop off might be closer to 40%.

The advantage for Harry Potter is that it's an ideal Thanksgiving Weekend movie that multi-generational family groups can agree on seeing (as long as you're not dealing with very young children). I hope Rent does well (I plan on seeing it Friday), but I think it's safe to say that it will pull a mostly teen/young adult crowd, plus some adult musical theatre fans who know what it is.

---

What about yours mine and ours, just friends, and the others opening the 23rd. You have to put them into consideration. Yours mine and ours (although a remake and competing with harry potter) can bring in the thanksgiving family audience.

Harry will definitely be Number 1.

I think Walk the Line will be Number 2. All the shows here have been sold out, and it's gotten awesome buzz.

RENT may take #3....but even that will take some luck.

---

No, I have too. My sister says that most of the kids in her high school class all want to see it. That's alot of people :)

I think that HP will stay #1 for this weekend and the weekend after, and RENT will maybe take #2 or #3.

---

I'm thinking #3 at best as the film is still very much a niche product. Harry's audience is everyone, young and old, families, single folk who all want to see latest installment of a blockbuster franchise. Walk the Line opened a lot stronger than expected, which points up positive word of mouth as the weekend progressed. While Johnny Cash subject matter skews older, the presence of Joaquin and especially Reese pretty much evens the age appeal, and then on top of that there's the curiosity factor of seeing these established actors doing their own singing (and quite well). Yours, Mine & Ours is the biggest threat for #3. While it'll definitely take a hit due to Harry (and Zathura, for that matter), it'll draw those families who can't get a ticket to Harry or have already seen Harry and Zathura. The audiences for those are broader than what I see as the *initial* audience for Rent, which are young adults, MTV crowd people--a fraction of whom could be seeing Harry or Walk the Line instead, or even two lesser releases (Just Friends and In the Mix, which will both probably land outside the top 5 but cut mostly into potential Rent viewers). I do think word of mouth could keep Rent afloat for a little bit to a healthy gross. (Though Aeon Flux will further dilute the potential viewership the following week) It just won't post those blockbuster numbers out of the gate necessarily.

Updated On: 11/21/05 at 06:52 PM

Also, it's Thanksgiving weekend...All the RENTheads will see it Wednesday, so if it tapers off during the weekend, that'll hurt it. BUT, as it's a fou-day weekend, I expect most of the family movies to dominate, pushing back Walk the Line as well.

I really feel like Rent has a great shot at number 2. It has had a great, vigorous advertising campaign that really put it out there to teens and young adults. From the buzz and word of mouth I have been hearing all over, I think it could definetly have about a 25-35 million dollar Thanksgiving weekend.

Harry Potter will most certainly be number one.... I mean let's be realistic. I just don't see Walk the Line taking in a HUGE total this weekend, I'd say $15-20 million. Chicken Little will not be competition; it's box office take will start to die down.

**I predict RENT opens number two and takes in $20 million Friday-Sunday, and $32 million Wednesday-Sunday.**

Anyone else want to offer a box office prediction? We can see on Sunday if anyone guesses right.

---