I'm curious if that's ever happened. Like has there ever been a show that is clearly a better musical and is selling out, yet another show wins Best Musical because to basically give it a boost in sales?
Oh, that was definitely the popular theory regarding Gentleman's Guide winning Best Musical. If Beautiful or Aladdin won, it would have been the "touring" theory. The other popular theory is "vendetta" theory when Passion won over Beauty and the Beast. It's rare that a musical wins where the popular theory is that the best was actually chosen by the voters. I think the last time that happened might have been 2003. Otherwise, you'd probably have to go back to 1979.
The way it usually works is like this:
1. Tony voters cast their votes however they see fit.
2. Tony awards is broadcast.
3. Non-Tony voter fans who don't know or communicate with Tony voters watch the broadcast.
4. The non-Tony voter fans of the losing show tell us precisely what Tony voters were thinking and the rationale for their voting.
5. One theory becomes the meme and is later popularly expressed as fact.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian