I don't know how anyone can say, today, that it will win the Tony. You don't even know what the competition will be. What if something like a FUN HOME or a BILLY ELLIOT or a BOOK OF MORMON a comes along....we just don't know yet. Let the season play out.
What sucks for all new shows this season is that the first word of mouth question will be "Is it as good as HAMILTON?"
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle