Marie Christine was long since closed by the time of the Tonys that year, and had not been looked upon very favorably, by either critics or audiences.
While Aida was also not the critical darling that season, either, Heather Headley was receiving enormous amounts of praise and the show was still running, which is always an advantage when it comes to any awards. I saw both shows and my biggest gripe was that despite what critics or voters thought about the shows (though I found Marie Christine more interesting than Aida), I could not understand how Headley could have been seen as delivering a better performance than McDonald that year. The only thing I could think of was that the voters simply wanted to award someone new rather than give McDonald her fourth trophy in as many nominations and eligible Broadway performances. It was almost like they were asking Audra to give someone else a chance for a change. And she may very well join the ranks of Julie Harris and Angela Lansbury this Sunday.
As for ties, I'd much prefer a tie for Musical or Score than see Newsies win either category outright.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian