Long Runs of the Future

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Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:00pm

Hey all, With Phantoms record breaking performance tonight, do you think there are any shows currently playing that have a chance to break the record or even come close? I think the following have a shot

Chicago
The Lion King
Wicked

"I wouldn't let Esparza's Bobby take my kids to the zoo...I'd be afraid he'd steal their ice cream and laugh."- YankeeFan
"People who like Sondheim enjoy cruelty."-LuvtheEmcee

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:01pm

I kind of think Chicago will close eventually without much reason, but I agree with Wicked and Lion King.

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:04pm

I'm sure "Wicked" will outlive us all....

"It is bad enough that people are dying of AIDS, but no one should die of ignorance." - Elizabeth Taylor

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:07pm

I wonder if Woman in White will be another long running Webber show...

So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that's on the worst day of my life.~Office Space

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:10pm

WIW doesn't seem to be doing as well as I thought.

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:11pm

I doubt it will ever exceed Phantom, but RENT will definately make it's mark.

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:11pm

I disagree about The Woman in White. It doesnt seem to be getting the kind of public response Phantom, Cats, and Les Mis had.

"I wouldn't let Esparza's Bobby take my kids to the zoo...I'd be afraid he'd steal their ice cream and laugh."- YankeeFan
"People who like Sondheim enjoy cruelty."-LuvtheEmcee

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:12pm

Unless WIW comes out running soon, It doesn't look well. RENT will go out quick like "Chicago" - without warning (when it does)

"It is bad enough that people are dying of AIDS, but no one should die of ignorance." - Elizabeth Taylor

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:16pm

Chicago is already the longest running revival ever (no, Oh! Calcutta! doesn't count), so I agree it won't make it. Lion King could very well have a real shot, though - it's been running for for just over 8 years (give or take), and it's still one of the hardest tickets on Broadway. Wicked might get up there, as well. I'd wouldn't count out Hairspray or Rent, either.

That said, if I were to bet on what would pass Phantom, I'm not sure that I'd take anything on Broadway today. I think we've seen the end of the 15-year, 20-year run for a while. The only show in recent memory that would have a real chance (not counting off-stage stuff) would have been Ragtime, in my opinoin. If they hadn't gone through legally what they did, I believe that it'd still running and doing very well. Plus, I believe it's constructed much better than any of the British shows, Phantom included, though it's still in that vien of the musical epic. But, I guess we'll never know.

"Who is Stephen Sondheim?" -roninjoey
"The man who wishes he had written Phantom of the Opera!" - SueleenGay

GO CARDINALS!!!

#10

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:21pm

i think chicago could do it- the weisslers like money and it has an operating cost around ummm zero there no reason for it to close. and fir arguement's sake the next one to take the title will be beauty and the beast sinced its disney's baby and they won't let it die

"Grease," the fourth revival of the season, is the worst show in the history of theater and represents an unparalleled assault on Western civilization and its values. - Michael Reidel

#11

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:25pm

That might just spell the actual end of the American musical, if the next long running show is BATB, which would probably then be passed by Lion King. And I'm not usually one of those Broadway doomsday people, either.

"Who is Stephen Sondheim?" -roninjoey
"The man who wishes he had written Phantom of the Opera!" - SueleenGay

GO CARDINALS!!!

#12

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:28pm

Yes, it would truly be terrible if Beauty and the Beast overtook the esteemed Oh, Calcutta! for the fifth spot on the long-runners list.

Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.

#13

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:30pm

I believe Chicago has like a year left on Broadway unless they start getting big names and take advantage of the new Tony award.
The Lion King might get far but I agree that the 20-year runs are not going to become a trend.

"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"

#14

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/9/06 at 11:30pm

Everyone seems to be forgetting that, in order for any show to exceed PHANTOM's run, PHANTOM has to close first.

And that doesn't look it's happening anytime soon.

But, of all the shows currently on Broadway, I'd say THE LION KING has the closest chance at approaching PHANTOM's run.

BlueWizard's blog: The Rambling Corner HEDWIG: "The road is my home. In reflecting upon the people whom I have come upon in my travels, I cannot help but think of the people who have come upon me."

Updated On: 1/9/06 at 11:30 PM

#15

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 12:28am

I think Disney will get a lot of backlash from the Broadway community if it tries to get BatB and Lion King to have like 20 year runs, that's just insane. Wicked i think is the only show that could surpass Phantom because Wicked is the first American blockbuster musical and seems to just enchant anyone who sees it. Its got something special about it, which I think Phantom does too.

#16

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 1:40am

I think its safe to say that its WAY to early to start thinking about Wicked surpassing Phantom. Wicked has had about 900 performances compared to Phantom's almost 7500. I would check back in about ten years and if Wicked is still popular, maybe consider it then. Sure its popular now, but its also fairly new.

#17

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 2:00am

"Wicked i think is the only show that could surpass Phantom because Wicked is the first American blockbuster musical "

?????????????????????????????????????

A CHORUS LINE with its 15 year run wasn't a blockbuster? Or LION KING? Or GREASE or 42nd STREET or heck, OH CALCUTTA? Or TWO DOZEN OTHER Shows? Have you no sense of Broadway history?

?????????????????????????????????????

Of current shows, CHICAGO is still doing 85-95% business most weeks with no stars and costs nothing to run, so will likely be around a few more years and just might surpass PHANTOM if the Weisslers want it to. RENT and BEAUTY AND THE BEAST both have a few years in the tank so we'll see how long they go. And LION KING will go at least another 5 years or more.

WICKED is a VERY expensive show to run weekly, so while it'll likely make 10 years, I'm not sure it'll go 20. I would guess it'll move out of the enormous Gershwin sometime in the the next 5 years or so and we'll see how well it runs after that.

"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie [http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/] "The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney

Updated On: 1/10/06 at 02:00 AM

#18

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 2:10am

Here's hoping to Rent. Wicked most likely will.

#19

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 2:13am

Margo, thank you soooo much for that response to the comment "Wicked is the first American Broadway musical"

#20

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 2:16am

Thank you, Margo!

But if you kiss me,
If we touch,
Warning's fair:
I don't care
Very much

#21

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 2:28am

I'm going for the dark horse here with "Lestat". Okay LizzieCurry, say something rotten.

"It is bad enough that people are dying of AIDS, but no one should die of ignorance." - Elizabeth Taylor

#22

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 3:34am

Jam man, could you explain a little more about Ragtime's legal problems?

"If there was a Mount Rushmore for Broadway scores, "West Side Story" would be front and center. It snaps, it crackles it pops! It surges with a roar, its energy and sheer life undiminished by the years" - NYPost reviewer Elisabeth Vincentelli

#23

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 7:11am

My money is on The Lion King and although it has a long way to go Mama Mia!
I would hazzard a guess and say both Rent and Chicago will be gone in 18 months time.

#24

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 10:39am

The Canadian producing company of Ragtime, Livent, and its founder Garth Drabinsky had lots of legal and financial trouble. Due to "accounting irregulaties" and "improper business practices" by Drabinsky, Livent had trouble paying back investors and eventually went bankrupt. Drabinsky had two sets of books for each production, one marked "SHOW TO THE IRS" and the other marked "DO NOT SHOW TO THE IRS"! (sorry couldn't resist)

Even with all that...Ragtime was a VERY expensive show to run and I remember reading that they almost had to sell out the Ford Center every night in order to break even. I still think Ragtime is one of the greatest shows in recent history--but it would have had to have been scaled back a lot in order to keep playing for a long time.

"You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make today worth remembering." --Harold Hill from The Music Man

Updated On: 1/10/06 at 10:39 AM

#25

re: Long Runs of the Future

Posted: 1/10/06 at 10:48am

I tend to agree with Blue Wizard that before we start proclaiming the next long running record-breaker, Phantom has to close first. There was a recent interview where it was stated that Phantom could probably run another 5 years on Broadway. I have a feeling that during that time we could see the end of competitors like Rent, Beauty and the Beast, and Chicago. I still think Lion King has the best chance due to Disney's deep pockets and the fact that it really hasn't slowed down over the years that much. I agree that we need to wait a few years on Wicked to see how it is faring then before we can predict anything.

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