I think there will be hits and flops, people will be mad when their favorite performer isn't nominated for a Tony, and then we'll go back to arguing whether Alice Ripley is crazy and if Karen Olivo can dance.
oh, and I will complain endlessly about Catherine Zeta-Jones as Desiree, should it actually happen.
I can't wait for TURN OFF THE DARK LADY!
Understudy Joined: 4/4/07
If American Idiot from Berkeley Rep transfers, it'll be a hit.
"Artists are always on the vanguard of change: they give the community a vision."
"Desire comes from the Latin "de sire", or "of the father", or "of the stars". We want what is magical, what is out there, what is of the stars. And so our characters should as well."
"If there are people who don't believe in you, don't hang out with them. Wish them well, wish them peace, and move on."
Right now, "The Addams Family" looks like it is the most likely to be a hit - I'm sure the material must at least be stomachable, otherwise they wouldn't be able to secure such a uniformly A-list cast.
"American Idiot" will definitely be a hit, if it transfers. Same with "Fela!". Both will get phenominal reviews and just break even on word-of-mouth.
"Catch Me if You Can", "Finian's Rainbow", and "Ragtime" will probably be crtical, but not financial hits - I predict they will have runs similar to "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels", in which they come close to recouping, but have to make the rest up on a national tour.
"Bye Bye Birdie" looks like it's in great shape and will likely have a run similar to that of Roundabout's hit revival of "The Pajama Game". (ie: the one where you stood outside in the cancellation line for hours just hoping to grab one for full price.)
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/8/08
Bye Bye Birdie will definitely extend. It will be able to sell tickets based in its name alone. I'm not sure if it'll be the next 'Cabaret', but it'll definitely as successful as SITPWG (at least). Fela! will probably have trouble selling tickets at first, but it could slowly increase with good word of mouth (similar to N2N).
American Idiot will most probably transfer and be the big hit of the season (right before it sweeps the Tony Awards). I just have a feeling!
A Little Night Music will survive on it's cast.
That we don't even know for sure yet.
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