My Tony Predictions (MUSICAL CATAGORIES)- Page 2

[Musical Master]

Posted: 4/28/13 at 11:43pm

I have a sinking feeling that even though Pippin from what I heard was an amazing revival, Cinderella might become the suprise of the year for some and I have not seen both shows.

Updated On: 4/28/13 at 11:43 PM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 12:20am

disneyfan, those are pretty good, I'd substitute Stark over Matthew.

[Emmaloucbway]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 9:35am

@Musical Master: I highly doubt Cinderella will become the surprise of the year and win. It got mainly mixed reviews, whereas Pippin got positive with a few mixed here and there. Pippin is an excellent revival and deserves to win the Tony, and I feel it's true competition is Edwin Drood, but since that closed I think Pippin will win.

[dreaming]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 10:43am

disneyfan-I concur that by and large these are accurate indications of the noms. However, I think that Chaplin will get left out and A Christmas Story will get the nod, especially since it's coming back this season. I also think you're giving Drood a lot more love than the nominating committee will. (I also think Terrence Mann has a great shot at winning since Bertie is in the leading category. He's a respected veteran who's never won a Tony. He also is quite good in Pippin.) I'd also take someone out of leading actor in a musical (not sure who) and insert Rob McClure. I'm fairly certain he's going to get a nod for his breakthrough performance in Chaplin.

[Musical Master]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 10:49am

^^Emma: Of all things considered Cinderella did get mixed reviews but also had a share of some very postive reviews as well. I'm basing this on the Porgy and Bess revival from last year which got somewhat worse reviews than Cinderella and yet it won the Tony for Best Revival of a Musical over Follies. Besides, reviews never counted to the Tony voters anyway, I'm just sayin.

Updated On: 4/29/13 at 10:49 AM

[bdn223]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 10:56am

The difference was that Follies had closed and there were no plans for a tour or to bring it back for a summer run...while Porgy and Bess was going to run at least through the summer and tour the following year. Apparently several voters were also angry with Sondheim after his opt ed about his distain for what Paulus had done to Porgy and Bess in the New York Times, and they got their "revenge" by voting against Follies for the third time denying its "Best" award.

Pippin and Cinderella are both currently running. The only way I see Pippin losing is if it is not tourable...akin to Spiderman due to the circus elements, allowing Cinderella to pick up the tour votes, but I don't think this is the case. The only other thing Cinderella has going for it is that it is Rogers and Hammerstein, and some may want to give credit to the legendary pair.


If a voter is honestly torn between the two though, I think he or she would give Pippin the Best Revival vote, then vote for Best Actress to Osnes over Miller.

Updated On: 4/29/13 at 10:56 AM

[Musical Master]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 11:04am

^Oh okay thanks. :) So will this mean that lightning will strike twice for Paulus? Becuase I think she is one of the most creative directors on Broadway today who obviously knows what she's doing. But if Cinderella wins what would you think of it?

[dreaming]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 11:11am

Musical Master-I'd hardly be aghast-but I think Pippin will take it. The tour vote could certainly play no small role, particularly as Cinderella is far more family friendly than Pippin and will easily tour well.

[bdn223]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 11:17am

If Cinderella wins it would be a similar surprise to Porgy and Bess wining last year. People may be upset at the clearly superior revival of Pippin lost, but they will get over it.

[dreaming]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 11:19am

Eh, I think I'd place Cinderella's chances at the upset a little lower than Porgy and Bess' were. I had a suspicion they might take it (especially because they were still open). The road voters are an important part of the pool but I think Pippin might be easy enough to tour that they'll vote for it (it is a known title among baby boomers) and it's a more groundbreaking production, which I think could help it (in many ways, Porgy and Bess was more groundbreaking than Follies).

[Musical Master]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 11:55am

^Not Paulus's production of it. I haven't seen the show live but I have "seen" it, despite such a game cast it never soars as it should. The staging and set feels static, and to make it like a "musical" other than it's original operatic form really is a huge mistake. It's no wonder why Sondheim wrote that angry letter to NYT. But hey I'm not one of the Tony voters.

[SamIAm2]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 12:04pm

Dreaming, I'm not sure about your comparison between Cinderella and Pippin, as I have not yet seen Pippin. I'm surprised though at your statement about Cinderella being less ground breaking, as it has an all new book, new plot elements (in a fairy tale standard, and many new or revised characters. Please elaborate.

[Musical Master]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 12:09pm

^That's what I want to know as well.

[kdogg36]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 1:14pm

I'm surprised though at your statement about Cinderella being less ground breaking, as it has an all new book, new plot elements (in a fairy tale standard, and many new or revised characters. Please elaborate.

Well, I don't think it's accurate to equate new material with groundbreaking material. If we followed that line of thinking to its logical conclusion, then we'd have to say that every new musical is more groundbreaking than every revival. Does that seem right to you?

[dreaming]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 2:19pm

I didn't mean to imply that. I meant the staging of Pippin is certainly more groundbreaking than Cinderella, which tells its story in a highly traditional format (which could lead to an upset-not saying it won't). Pippin does far more with its staging and is more innovative in that sense. That was what I meant. I enjoyed both shows, but felt Pippin was a better production.

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 4:47pm

Just because I want to note these officially somewhere so I can come back tomorrow and check my work, these are the folks I'm betting on for nominations tomorrow. the featured categories are particularly tricky this year.

Best Musical:
Matilda
Kinky Boots
Motown
Hands on a Hardbody

Best Revival of a Musical:
Cinderella
Pippin
Annie
Drood

Best Leading Actor in a Musical:
Brandon Victor Dixon-Motown
Bertie Carvel-Matilda
Billy Porter-Kinky Boots
Rob McClure-Chaplin
Anthony Warlow-Annie


Best Leading Actress in a Musical:
Patina Miller-Pippin
Carolee Carmello-Scandalous
Lilla Crawford-Annie
Valisia LeKae-Motown
Laura Osnes-Cinderella

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
John Bolton-Christmas Story
Terrence Mann-Pippin
Raymond Luke-Motown
Gabriel Ebert-Matilda
Keith Carradine-Hands on a Hardbody

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Annaleigh Ashford-Kinky Boots
Andrea Martin-Pippin
Keala Settle-Hands on a Hardbody
Rachel Bay Jones-Pippin
Jessie Mueller-Drood

[SamIAm2]

Posted: 4/29/13 at 5:00pm

Thanks, dreaming, understood.

Kdogg, in general I agree with you, but I think that this situation is somewhat different. Although this production does not break new ground in terms of theatrical conventions, it does make substantial innovations to an established, universally known story. There are issues with the content of DCB's new book that have drawn criticism and yet I believe that many have feelings about the fact that there are significant deviations in and of themselves. Perhaps it is most accurate to say that this show is groundbreaking in relation to the Cinderella fairy tale, though not in terms of theater as an art form.