My long considered TONY PREDICTIONS for non tech awards; Fire away- Page 2

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:06pm

Why would Ebersole cancel Wilson out? Two actresses from the same show have won before.

[bob8rich]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:16pm

Bob, then there must be no god, because Murphy won't win. Did you SEE Ebersole's reviews? She got love letters from every critic, as did Mary Louise Wilson. They're locks.

I have not based my choices on reviews - I made my judgements on the performances I've seen. Also, as I said in my first post, my list is merely my personal opinion not a prediction of who will win. I think Ebersole was very good but not exceptional. And I still think Murphy's performance is the best I have seen anywhere in over 30 years of watching musical theatre.

Updated On: 4/27/07 at 06:16 PM

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:17pm

It's happened, ww, but not necessarily when you've had such strong competition in the Featured category.

[Mattbrain]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:20pm

"I don't think SA will win Best Musical. If the Musical nominations turn out the way you've predicted them, Curtains will win. I think it's the most tourable of the bunch."

Wow! If that sort of mindset dominated Broadway...well, we'd be in bad shape wouldn't we.

[bob8rich]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:21pm

I've heard LoveMusik has great performances but is a terrible show.

Lovemusik is a superb show - beautifully directed by Hal prince and with stunning Kurt Weill songs. Alfred Uhry's book in my opinion demonstrates the best writing of any book for a show this year - great subtlety of subtext that allows the characters to emerge from the perfect performances. It totally gripped me from start to finish.

Updated On: 4/27/07 at 06:21 PM

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:22pm

""I don't think SA will win Best Musical. If the Musical nominations turn out the way you've predicted them, Curtains will win. I think it's the most tourable of the bunch."

Wow! If that sort of mindset dominated Broadway...well, we'd be in bad shape wouldn't we."

Ummmm...

[RockabyeHamlet]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:23pm

""Company" while an interesting production lacks the charm, warmth and acting skills from the majority of the cast to make it even remotely enjoyable. Raul was just as cold as the ice cubes they were standing on."

- Could not agree with you more, husk.

And I think most of you are underestimating LoveMusik's TONY chances.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:25pm

Well, in the scenario that Murphy or McDonald win, then Wilson would most likely take her category.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:26pm

Well Mattbrain that IS the mindset of the Tonys. The most tourable show almost always wins.

[bob8rich]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:29pm

""Company" while an interesting production lacks the charm, warmth and acting skills from the majority of the cast to make it even remotely enjoyable. Raul was just as cold as the ice cubes they were standing on."

I respect your opinion but I'm afraid I can't agree. COMPANY is one of my favorite shows and I think this production is a hugely enjoyable re-invention of a classic. And I found Raul Esparza's performance to be oustanding vocally and - acting-wise - he deftly brought out all the nuances in the humor of George Furth's book.

[Crapgame13]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:31pm

SA doesn't beat GG or Curtains, mostly due to subject matter and it's relation to the voter base.

I think GG wins.

I think Celia may get a nom for Les Miz. But Les Miz is so hot and cold with people, who knows.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:32pm

As much as I love it and want it to win, it has the least chance of winning. It's just not a commercial show.

[jordangirl]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 7:20pm

""Company" while an interesting production lacks the charm, warmth and acting skills from the majority of the cast to make it even remotely enjoyable. Raul was just as cold as the ice cubes they were standing on."

So THAT'S what those were. I didn't get it. Liked the music, but totally didn't get the point of anything else.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 9:39pm

I think SPRING AWAKENING will win for Best Musical, even though it is not doing as well commercially as most thought it would. Why? Because even some of the theater veterans on the voting panel will probably recognize that we should be inviting more people to something that will appeal to them, and get them (hopefully) interested in theater. They wouldn't have to apologize, either, since SA got the best reviews out of all the shows this season (not including LOVEMUSIK and LEGALLY BLONDE, although we'll see, won't we?)

I'm really, REALLY rooting for Raul Esparza to win Best Leading Actor. God knows he deserves it.

And yeah, COAST OF UTOPIA has too much going for it to not win Best Play (of course, wait until Tony night and I'll be proven wrong, if the voting committee has anything like the "Let's count how many surprise wins we've had so far" attitude of the Academy Awards... God, that was stupid...) It's pulled off the herculean task set by its creators, it has a fantastic and well-loved director that brought out the best in it, and... it's nine hours of Stoppard (as someone previously said).

[musicman117]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 11:55pm

Do any of you think that because Grey Gardens opened so long ago that people might forget about it. Not entirely, of course, Ebersole is a lock for AT LEAST a nomination. Plus, i have heard from many people that have seen it that the show is not great but the performances are amazing. I just re-read most of the reviews for the show and most of the praise was for Ebersole and Wilson.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Best Musical nominees are Curtains, Legally Blonde, LoveMusik, and Spring Awakening.

Also - If anyone from Legally BLonde is getting a featured actress nomination, it will be Orfeh, not Kate Shindle.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 11:59pm

I doubt GG will be shut out. While most of the reviews centered around Christine and Mary Louise, the critics did say the show had improved much since it's run Off-Broadway.

[Nick Plasia]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:05am

There is no way Grey Gardens won't be nominated for best musical.

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:17am

Husk- "Spring Awakening" has little chance of anything other than Supporting Actor.

Are you for real? What do you think is going to take Best Score?

[Trish2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:26am

Although I havent seen SA yet, it just seems to me a no brainer that Legally Blonde would be the most commercially successful show to tour. Branding, merchandising, the "girl" thing, etc. all point to $$$$$.

From most of the feel good repsonses on LB it seems to me that this show will be the one to beat, reviews notwithstanding. They say its not close to Hairpsray in book or music, but it certainly looks to have all the sparkling packaging. My gut is LB is going to take the prize.

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:29am

Neddy-
I personally feel it will go to either "Curtains" or "Legally Blonde." Both of them are enjoyable, solid, and are much better IMHO than "Spring Awakening."

HOWEVER I have problems with "Spring Awakening" on all levels. The show hits a little too close to home for comfort in multiple areas, and on a whole it is not enjoyable to me.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:30am

What about GG, husk?

[WhatDoINeedWithLove?]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:41am

Besides being the critical favorite, I think that Spring Awakening will win based on the fact that its tour weighs heavily on its success at the Tony's. People want this show to do well and they want it to have a future, Tony voters included.

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 12:50am

WW-
I don't think GG is as good or as solid as "Curtains" or "Legally Blonde"

[scooter38432]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 6:29am

"This years two heaviest major awards contenders will be "Curtains" and "Legally Blonde." ... "Legally Blonde" is a suprisingly tight show, with fabulous direction/choreography, a solid score, and a good cast. "

I couldn't disagree more. in my opinion, SPRING AWAKENING and GREY GARDENS are the two strongest of the possible Best Musical contenders. Have you seen LEGALLY BLONDE? Surprisingly tight? I thought it was a mess (other than the enjoyable opening number). Solid score? Oh yeah, crap is solid.

The Tony doesn't always go to the show that will tour well. I know that people have said this before, but I think it's true. Did they think that PASSION would tour better than BEAUTY & THE BEAST? Did they think that AVENUE Q would tour better than WICKED with their adolescent girl market already guaranteed? Would CONTACT tour better than SWING!?

If Gavin Lee is nominated over Jonathan Groff, or if Karen Ziemba or Charlotte D'Amboise is nominated over Erin Davie, there's something wrong.

I know these may very well be pipe dreams, but again, in my opinion, Groff and Davie gave two of the best performances I've seen this year. The only person I'd be happy to see win over Erin Davie would be Mary Louise Wilson. I think they should both get noms, though.

I know, I know...

[Smaxie]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 8:00am

In 1994, there was so much anti-Disney sentiment that a vote for Passion was a vote against Disney, not necessariy that the voters truly loved Passion. Avenue Q quite famously courted the road Tony voters, promising a tour. It's quite possible that those voters thought that a juggernaut like Wicked wouldn't need the Best Musical Tony to succeed (since Wicked became a huge hit in spite of its reviews), while a little show like Avenue Q would need the imprimatur of the Best Musical Tony to succeed in their markets. There was much fury amid the road Tony voters when Avenue Q announced it was going to Las Vegas instead of a national tour two days after winning Best Musical, with some voters saying in print they voted for it because the thought they were getting the show in their market.