My long considered TONY PREDICTIONS for non tech awards; Fire away- Page 3

[TechEverlasting]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 8:18am

"There was much fury amid the road Tony voters when Avenue Q announced it was going to Las Vegas instead"

This is one reason that I think Legally Blonde will get the Best Musical trophy. The road voters haven't forgotten that they got screwed over by an artsy little musical.

[Dirty_Rotten_Guy]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 8:26am

""Company" while an interesting production lacks the charm, warmth and acting skills from the majority of the cast to make it even remotely enjoyable. Raul was just as cold as the ice cubes they were standing on."

i also strongly agree with this point. it was a good show, but i personally dont think it was anything Tony-worthy. the songs and dialogue are so exciting, but when delivered in this production, they came across almost montonous and cold.

i think either A CHORUS LINE or 110 will take Best Revival.

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 2:36pm

Okay, my two cents. I'm only doing musicals because the only plays I've seen are COU and Talk Radio, so I can't really guess too well.

Best musical=
Grey Gardens
Spring Awakening
Legally Blonde
Curtains*

Best Actress in a Musical
Christine Ebersole* (she's had these roles for over a year now and I've never seen anything like her performance-seen it many times and she has yet to give a bad performance-always consistently amazing.)
Audra McDonald
Donna Murphy
Kristin Chenoweth
Laura Bell Bundy or Debra Monk

Best Actor in a Musical
Raul Esparza*
David Hyde Pierce
Steve Kazee
Michael Cerveris

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Mary Louise Wilson*
Orfeh
Karen Ziemba
Barbara Walsh

Best Featured Actor in a Musical (this is tough for me-haven't seen too many that do it for me)
Jason Danieley*
Jonathan Gallagher
two others-basically think Danieley will win because he was the only one aside from Hyde Pierce who had great material to work with (I really didn't like the score-was so disappointed.)

Best Score
Grey Gardens
Spring Awakening* (hate to admit it!)
Curtains
Legally Blonde

Best Book
Grey Gardens*
Curtains
Spring Awakening
LoveMusik

Best Director of a Musical
Michael Mayer*
Harold Prince
Michael Greif
Jerry Mitchell

Updated On: 4/28/07 at 02:36 PM

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 2:50pm

Scooter-
While your points are well founded, I don't think GG or SA has the chance. I like GG, it's a great show. I have too many personal connections to SA to even find it remotley enjoyable (For details PM me). And I agree, sometimes the tourability doesn't matter, BUT given precedent, it looks like it will again this year. And, truth be told, I want BADLY for D'Amboise to not get a nomination. Not because I dislike her, but because I dislike her in the role that much. Granted, I LOATHE "Les Miserables" and I am hoping Daphne Rubin Vega gets a nomination (even though she probably won't).


I will say this, this is the first year (for me at least), in a while that the Tony's are a TOUGH competition.

Updated On: 4/28/07 at 02:50 PM

[ashley0139]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 3:04pm

I just might shoot myself if SA wins over GG. I liked SA, not loved, liked. But I thought GG was leagues beyond it. I believe it should take home Best Musical, although that probably won't happen.

And no one has mentioned it yet, but I would love to see Erin Davie get a nomination for GG. I know Mary Louise is a lock, and deservedly. But I think Erin gives a nuanced and brilliant performance.

As for revival, I loved both Les Mis and ACL but I don't think either deserve to win. Apple Tree was a great production with great performances, but I thought the show overall was mediocre. Company offers a fresh take on a classic show. And I think each performer is amazing.

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 3:07pm

My only fear is, since Ebersole is going to get the Tony, they may decide to award a different show Featured Actress. (Granted, they didn't in 76 for "A Chorus Line")

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 3:11pm

They didn't for Millie, either.
And GG is far better. (with incredible performances from the two women who will win, IMO.)

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 3:15pm

bwaygal-
I am pulling for the two of them, however, I won't be suprised if Parker doesn't get it.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 3:23pm

Parker?

And ashley, amen! I would love to see GG win Best Musical (and score), but I know it probably won't happen. It would be awesome if it did though. And I also agree Erin deserves a nom. Her "Daddy's Girl" is flawless.

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 4:39pm

Why does everybody think that the most 'tourable' production will win Best Musical?

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 4:44pm

Because that's what always happens. The most commercial and tourable show almost always wins, whether it deserves to or not.

Some examples:

POTO over Into the Woods
The Lion King over Ragtime
Millie over Urinetown
Spamalot over any of the other nominees

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:08pm

Why does everybody think that the most 'tourable' production will win Best Musical?

Because of the percentage of voters with the interest in touring productions succeeding...remember that a lot of smaller cities favour the safe entertainments.

There is always a factor of interest when voting for these awards. If we go by the critic's response, technically Spring Awakening would already win, but we know it could be the complete opposite.

And I don't think any performer is a real lock either - just remember last year's "Sweeney Todd" drama.

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:09pm

What about:
Avenue Q over Wicked
The Will Rogers Follies over Miss Saigon
Kss of the Spider Woman--The Musical over The Who's Tommy (they are both tourable but my guess is that Tommy would find more of an audience on the road)
Passion over Beauty and the Beast
Contact over Swing!
Nine over Dreamgirls and Joseph

And those are just some that I thought of on the top of my head.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:16pm

Well:

Q went on a huge campaign to win the Tony. Vote your Heart, anyone? They also promised both a Vegas prodution and a tour, which prompted voters to pick them.

Passion won because the voters had a grudge against Disney and didn't want to see them win.

I don't think any of the shows in 2000 were commercial, and wasn't Swing! a flop?

As, I'm not sure, because I'm not too familar with those shows.

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:24pm

Well, from that list I would exclude Nine, because it seems that the appeal of the most tourable production is a lot more recent than that.

I don't see how Swing! was lighter than Contact. I saw them both, and the "dancical" market on the road would had been pretty close, except that Contact had probably more musical variety than the other.
The Disney-hate was already explained, and, please, it was Sondheim, none of the contenders this year is a Sondheim.
I still don't see how Tommy was more touring friendly than Spider Woman.
Will Rogers was the popular "All-American" choice at the time (which smaller states would LOVE), as opposed to the import. We knew later that this choice was wrong, but at the moment I'm sure it was the right choice in their heads, as they imagined the American flag in their minds.
And I'd give you Avenue Q, if they hadn't come up with the "Vote With Your Heart" campaign, that seemed to work with almost everyone.

[JustABroadwaybaby2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:25pm

110 in the Shade and Company are the only revivals that divert from their originals, really. I can't see Les Miz or Chorus Line wining. Although I haven't seen 110, I still think Company will win. At least, I really hope so.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 5:27pm

I believe The Apple Tree is different from the original production.

[JustABroadwaybaby2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 6:38pm

Oh, sorry, I forgot.

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 7:55pm

I think you meant Wilson-her name is Mary Louise Wilson.
(Still say both will win. This is a much stronger show than Millie and the reviews for the actresses even more so.)

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 8:27pm

Blaxx- Tommy would be more tourable because people would only know Spiderwoman based on the movie. Have you seen the movie? It is pretty scary, and I don't know how many people would want to see that as a musical.

[TechEverlasting]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 8:59pm

"My only fear is, since Ebersole is going to get the Tony, they may decide to award a different show Featured Actress."

I don't understand how this would happen. The nominations are decided by a committee, but after that it's a matter of individual votes being tallied, isn't it? Each voter puts in their choice for best actress and best supporting actress. There isn't some sort of group discussion where it's decided how the awards should be balanced.

Just ask any other show that went up against The Producers.

In this case I expect both Ebersole and Wilson to win, and I hope this gives GG a huge box office jump.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/28/07 at 9:30pm

Ashley, I agree about Davie. Completely overshadowed by the other two in the eyes of BWW, at least, and she is the only one of the Edies who had to create a character with absolutely nothing to go on. I don't know why more people aren't recognizing that around here.

[MiracleElixir]

Posted: 4/29/07 at 2:25am

CURTAINS and LEGALLY BLONDE may do well with Tonys (key word "may"-- I don't think CURTAINS will make the cut. Its awfulness will probably hurt its chances), but I don't understand how anyone could argue they're more "solid" shows than SPRING AWAKENING or GREY GARDENS. More commercial, definitely. More solid? Are you ****ing kidding?

CURTAINS benefits from the charm of the delightful David Hyde Pierce and LEGALLY BLONDE benefits from its target audience being filled with people who equate "perky" and "upbeat" with "quality," but I don't think either will be enough to take the Tony. While yes, the winner tends to be the most tourable show, when there's a show that's critically beloved AS WELL AS tourable (e.g.: SPRING AWAKENING), they tend to find it hard to resist.

LEGALLY BLONDE is this season's WEDDING SINGER, not this season's HAIRSPRAY.

And does anyone think there's any chance that despite it being Stoppard/epic/irresistable, that COAST OF UTOPIA bored the **** out of any Tony voters and might have hurt its chances? Updated On: 4/29/07 at 02:25 AM

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/29/07 at 2:36am

I doubt SA will take the Tony. It got great reviews, yes, but it's not the most tourable. If it were playing to sold-out houses, then it would have a shot. But as it is now, it's doing well, but not as well as Blonde did in its first week.

And, Elixir, you may have thought "Curtains" was awful, but it did get some positive reviews, and it also helps it's a Kander and Ebb show, and it's original. I'll be very suprised if it isn't nominated.

Updated On: 4/29/07 at 02:36 AM