disneybroadwayfan22 said: "Why are people saying that Frozen is going to close? Yes, it's (surprisingly) the least Disney show that's doing well. But, it can't be in danger to close? Do you guys think Hercules will come after?"
Disney’s original plan was based on prior history once Frozen opened Aladdin would close about 1.5-2 years later as Disney hasn’t been able to successfully have 3 shows on the boards since Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Aida*. The last of which was not sold as a Disney production. It follows a pattern of Beauty closing 8 months after Mary Poppins opened, Mary Poppins closing 1 year after Newsies opened, and Newsies closing 14 months after Aladdin opened. Disney would then bring in a “limited”/tour based revival of Beauty and the Beast into the New Amsterdam, akin to the recent Cats, Miss Saigon, Bring it On, and now Lightning Thief productions. This would then close to make way for their newest musical at which point sounded like Hercules. Frozen’s middling box office, and Aladdin’s surprisingly strong staying power, has thrown a wrench in that. Add to the glowing reviews Hercules got over the summer. I can see Disney rearranging their plans now to having an out of town production or two of Hercules over the next year, with Frozen closing in August 2020/ January 2021 to make way for a Spring 2022 opening of Hercules.