I think Atkins is very likely to win this award, especially given the magnitude of this role. Also, whoever said that Roger Bart is not eligible because he was in the original cast, it's not true. The actors could have been in the original cast but they could not have played the role for which they want to be nominated for in this category.
"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"