Riedel Tony Predictions

[cjmclaughlin10]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 8:43am

https://nypost.com/2019/04/25/2019-tony-awards-predictions-which-shows-will-be-nominated-or-snubbed/

I think he tends to be off in his predictions, but Im concerned that he seems to think Best Musical is all but locked up for Tootsie

I get that there is a certain level of politics involved in the Tony process (voters tend to be road producers and want big names for the marquee) but there was no perfect (or universally liked) musical this year. I found Hadestown to be thrilling with its unique sound and stunning physical production (the race for best director between Chavkin and Finch is the one I am most looking forward to)
Sorry for the rant so early

Updated On: 4/29/19 at 08:43 AM

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 8:58am

I don't think he's ever really been too great at predicting these, but its not a lock for Hadestown. I believe it will win in the end, but this is the closest we'll get to another Kinky vs Matilda battle. I think for that season Matilda just wasn't as good as some on this board mentioned, so Kinky won the hearts over for that one. I could see the same potentially happening here with Tootsie. I know that some out of town people would never have interest in Hadestown, since I'm from a family of casual theatergoers. They have zero interest in the show, so road voters may see that and really push for Tootsie. I haven't seen either, but Im going with a bunch of family to Tootsie, so I suspect long term the box office for that show will be a hit. Interesting race for best musical though, and Im glad we have one. 

[cjmclaughlin10]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:01am

I didn’t mean to imply it was a lock for Hadestown. If the people from Tootsie run a great campaign (think Avenue Q) they could win

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:08am

Im commenting on Riedel, he has Tootsie as the front runner which I find odd and don't agree with, but I also think that there is a competition there to be had for sure. Im really excited for the Tony's this year, truly great and worthy competition all around, so much better than last year. 

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:17am

Has anyone been following the gold derby odds?

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/tony-awards-nominations-2019/

[PipingHotPiccolo]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:27am

Reidel doesnt seem all that far off to me, which makes me think I have no real idea of whats going on this season. The only limb he seems to be going out on is less love for Hadestown than we are imagining, which would give room for the Prom actors to sneak into the acting categories (I think only Leavel and Ashmankas will get nominated), and would give Tootsie or the Prom the win. 

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:59am

In the last paragraph he says that he thinks Beth Leavel, Brooks Ashmanskas, Angie Schowerer, Chris Sieber and Caitlin Kinnunen are going to get nomintations. That is what surprised me most about this. Also calling Tootsie the front runner when they are so evenly matched.

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:27am

It's kind of insane that this board has decided that Tootsie stands a chance. I think a lot of you haven't seen it yet. It's thoroughly mediocre. I think if anything is giving Hadestown a run for its money, it might be The Prom or Ain't Too Proud, but, honestly, I think Hadestown will absolutely walk away with this. Reidel also predicts the wrong musical to win every single time, so therefore, Hadestown will win.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:31am

Riedel is a self-professed pot stirrer who works for a tabloid. Why are his columns always taken as being legitimate? 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:35am

The tony awards have rewarded the “underdog” show I feel like so often the past 5 or so years. Like When Fun Home won over AAIP or Gentlemen’s guide won over Beautiful and Aladdin and the even last year when the bands visit won over spongebob. I don’t think this year will be any different. Hadestown is winning.

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:38am

I will say, if they love THE PROM I could see both Leavel and Kinnunen being nominated. Kinnunen could take that fifth slot most think is going to Noblezada. I doubt it, but possible.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:41am

Call_me_jorge said: "The tony awards have rewarded the “underdog” show I feel like so often the past 5 or so years. Like When Fun Home won over AAIP or Gentlemen’s guide won over Beautiful and Aladdin and the even last year when the bands visit won over spongebob. I don’t think this year will be any different. Hadestown is winning."

But Hadestown is the front runner, not the underdog. If they were awarding the underdog this year it'd go to The Prom or Tootsie, not Hadestown. Tootsie got great reviews which I believe is providing Hadestwon competition, but I certainly wouldn't call it the underdog here. 

[52889j]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:46am

I think the issue here is that Hadestown has a long narrative of being beloved since NYTW. The Broadway production has been met with a lot of superlative praise setting high expectations that are difficult to fulfill for many. Tootsie, being a seemingly commercial movie adaptation, benefits from low expectations that it can easily surpass.

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:48am

Mike Barrett said: "Call_me_jorge said: "The tony awards have rewarded the “underdog” show I feel like so often the past 5 or so years. Like When Fun Home won over AAIP or Gentlemen’s guide won over Beautiful and Aladdin and the even last year when the bands visit won over spongebob. I don’t think this year will be any different. Hadestown is winning."

But Hadestown is the front runner, not the underdog. If they were awarding the underdog this year it'd go to The Prom or Tootsie, not Hadestown. Tootsie got great reviews which I believe is providing Hadestwon competition, but I certainly wouldn't call it the underdog here."

Mike, I think what Jorge is trying to say is as between a big budget movie-to-stage show like Tootsie versus a more art piece like Hadestown, the art piece often gets chosen at the Tony's.  See last year with My Fairy Lady taking all the best revival awards leading up to the Tony's, and then OOTI taking the Tony.  Same thing with Fun Home winning over the big and brassy An American in Paris and the incredibly well-written Something Rotten.  So "underdog" probably isn't the best way to describe it, but perhaps the art show over the commercially-focused show? 

 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:56am

Warbucks2 said: "Mike Barrett said: "Call_me_jorge said: "The tony awards have rewarded the “underdog” show I feel like so often the past 5 or so years. Like When Fun Home won over AAIP or Gentlemen’s guide won over Beautiful and Aladdin and the even last year when the bands visit won over spongebob. I don’t think this year will be any different. Hadestown is winning."

But Hadestown is the front runner, not the underdog. If they were awarding the underdog this year it'd go to The Prom or Tootsie, not Hadestown. Tootsie got great reviews which I believe is providing Hadestwon competition, but I certainly wouldn't call it the underdog here."

Mike, I think what Jorge is trying to say is as between a big budget movie-to-stage show like Tootsie versus a more art piece like Hadestown, the art piece often gets chosen at the Tony's. See last year with My Fairy Lady taking all the best revival awards leading up to the Tony's, and then OOTI taking the Tony. Same thing with Fun Home winning over the big and brassy An American in Paris and the incredibly well-written Something Rotten. So "underdog" probably isn't the best way to describe it, but perhaps the art show over the commercially-focused show?

"

This I 100% agree with. Its an underdog commercially, may be the best way to put it. But the artsy show over commercially successful things is why I love the Tony's cause they honor the best and highest art. So yes, that is a good point and Hadestown I think would still be less of an underdog then the shows mentioned in years past, but I see your point. TBV, Fun Home, Gentlemen's Guide, OOTI are all perfect examples of that. 

[After Eight]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 11:01am

"So "underdog" probably isn't the best way to describe it, but perhaps the art show over the commercially-focused show? "

 

Definitely. "Art shows" stroke the egos of those who rule the roost. Dogma darlings even more so. And when you're both at the same time, well, that deal is signed, sealed, and delivered.

No contest, really.