Riedel's Tony Predictions

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 2:36am

For the full column:
http://www.nypost.com/entertainment/68418.htm


"The fourth slot - and the nominators really will be scraping the bottom of the barrel here - is probably going to "The Wedding Singer."

It's crude and stupid, to be sure, but the nominators don't seem to dislike it as much as they do "Tarzan" (which has zero support) and "Lestat" (which only one nominator I spoke to says was "interesting").

Dark-horse candidate: Andrew Lloyd Webber's flop "The Woman in White."

Compared to the others, "it's starting to look better," says a nominator.

As for Roberts, nobody's making the case that she's much of a stage actress, but she's either better than they expected her to be or they feel sorry for her.

"I thought she was game," says a nominator about her performance in "Three Days of Rain."

"But I think it's just hard to say this is one of the best performances on Broadway."

Yesterday, though, Roberts got a little help from the people who determine Tony Award eligibility.

They ruled that Zoe Wanamaker, very fine in "Awake and Sing!," is eligible as Supporting Actress in a Play rather than Best Actress.

A weak field of leading actresses was made even weaker, which probably means Roberts will make the cut, joining Cynthia Nixon ("Rabbit Hole"), Judy Kaye ("Souvenir"), Kate Burton ("The Constant Wife") and Frances Sternhagen ("Seascape").

Two big stars who will not be nominated are longtime Tony favorites - Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick ("The Odd Couple").

The nominators don't seem to like anything about "The Odd Couple," including the direction by Joe Mantello.

Mantello's won Tonys before (for "Assassins" and "Take Me Out"), but this year he's going to be snubbed as punishment for what's considered poor work on both "The Odd Couple" and "Three Days of Rain."

"This is his off-year," says a nominator.

"The History Boys," on the other hand, can expect a shower of Tony nominations.

Almost every nominator I talked to adores this Alan Bennett play.

It'll be nominated for Best Play, and it will win.

Richard Griffiths, the veteran British stage actor and star of "The History Boys," will be nominated, as will that other great stage vet, Frances de la Tour.

Stephen Campbell Moore, who plays Griffiths' adversary, will also get a nod.

Of the boys, expect nominations for Dominic Cooper ("the sexy one," as the nominators call him) and Samuel Barnett ("the gay one") and either Jamie Parker ("the really cute piano player") or Russell Tovey ("the dumb one").

The only reason the entire slate of supporting actors in a play won't be made up of History Boys is that the nominators will save a spot for Ian McDiarmid, of "Faith Healer."

Other performers who can expect nominations Tuesday include Anthony Sher ("Primo"), Patti LuPone ("Sweeney Todd"), Michael Cerveris ("Sweeney Todd"), Edward Hibbert ("The Drowsy Chaperone"), Ralph Fiennes ("Faith Healer"), Brian F. O'Byrne ("Shining City") and Jim Dale ("The Threepenny Opera").

Updated On: 5/12/06 at 02:36 AM

[Luckydave14]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 3:55am

I think it is interesting he says Edward Hibbert will get a nomination. He was great in the show, but wasn't a standout.

[Gelfling]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 4:05am

With the reviews she got, they'll probably lose as much credibility as the Oscars did if they nominate Roberts... Granted this was not a great season for actresses but it was just a publicity stunt and they know it. They'll be written off as fluff awards and with the decline of theatre, it's a shame.

anyone holds much hope for Woman in White? I don't care one way or the other but I'm curious what you think...

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 5:01am

I hope they understand that a Tony nomination for Wedding Singer will really help it out, where as a nom for WiW won't really do much because the show is closed with really no tour planned.

And as for Roberts, do you think she'd show up to the Tonys if she was nominated, knowing very well that she won't win?

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 6:18am

I think the very simple, smart choice for the fourth Best Musical nominee, is "Chita Rivera: The Dancer's Life". Chita is a legend and is adored by the Broadway community. Yes, her show was so-so, but when we're choosing between "The Wedding Singer", "Tarzan", "The Woman in White" and "Lestat", given the fact that the nominating committee were the ones who made the choice in the first place to deem "Chita" eligible for Best Musical, it seems the obvious pick.

"I hope they understand that a Tony nomination for Wedding Singer will really help it out"

Yeah, and that can be a deterrent. If they really dislike this show that much, they're not going to recognize it, even with a pity nomination.

[Tricky Joe]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 6:51am

"Given the fact that the nominating committee were the ones who made the choice in the first place to deem "Chita" eligible for Best Musical, it seems the obvious pick."

Actually the nominating committee had nothing to do with putting Chita in the Best Musical category. The bone-headed Admin Committee did that. The nominators don't make any administrative decisions, they just nominate based on the categories the Admin committee have handed down to them.

[mabel]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 8:09am

Does anyone really think History Boys will take 4 of the 5 supporting actor nominations?!?!? As much as I'd love to see Jamie Parker slip into the mix there (or Russell Tovey for that matter) I just don't see that happening.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 8:39am

Oh I didn't realize that, Tricky Joe. Well even so, I think "Chita" is the safest choice for the fourth slot. I'd even say it was the best reviewed out of all the remaining contenders.

[LaCageAuxFollesFan2]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 8:46am

My only thing with them giving CHITA or WIW the forth slot... (and I don't have a problem with it) is that they are both closed and the Tony Nominators will want to give that slot to a show that is still running so they can perform on the telecast to make the CBS folk & Producers of the show happy.

Thus the reason I believe THE WEDDING SINGER, as undeserving as it is, will take the 4th slot. And we'll all get to hear one more time that theme that haunts the entire 2 and a half hours at the theatre, This is Your Wedding Day!

[songplugger]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 8:52am

Reidel's take on COLOR PURPULE is worth noting. IMHO, he can barely hide his distaste for the show, its producer and its racially diverse audience it is attracting.

*******************************************

"The least annoying in-law seems to be "The Color Purple," which is a pretty good bet to get the third slot.

The nominators aren't intimidated by Mrs. Producer, Oprah Winfrey ("I'm prepared to resist her," says one), but they know her show's a big hit, pleasing, if not theater people, all those ladies who do whatever she tells them to do.

There's also a race factor.

As one nominator says: "It's a serious black musical. How can we ignore it?"

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:08am

But CHITA performing on the TONYS will be better than anything from TWS and help her tour also.
not that it should be about that, but....

[Calvin]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:14am

Has one show ever had as many as four nominees in one acting category?

[LaCageAuxFollesFan2]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:21am

The cardnial rule has been if your show is closed on Broadway, you don't perform on the Tony telecast. Correct? Or am I Wrong?

[philcrosby]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:26am

A closed show not performing on the Tonys is more a factor of getting the company back together to rehearse a number. Solo performers have sung numbers from closed nominees in the past -- Dorothy Loudon sang "Fifty Percent" on the Tonys long after BALLROOM closed.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:31am

Closed numbers performing is up to the producer of the telecast and the persistance of the producer of the closed show.

Lots of closed shows have performed...

[mikem]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:32am

I agree (!) with Riedel -- The Wedding Singer will get the fourth slot by default because it's not as horrible as Lestat or Tarzan and is still open. It's interesting that WIW probably would be a nominee if it hadn't closed. I think WIW will get a Best Score nod, though, and may get a nom for Maria Friedman (I think it's hard to ignore someone who embodies, "The show must go on" who also gave a very strong performance.)

I also agree that Julia Roberts is going to get nominated -- it's not the best work in the world, but the category is weak and no one will be clearly snubbed if she gets in.

[DottieD'Luscia]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:35am

I'm just wondering if Woman in White would have done better if it had opened later in the season.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:37am

The girls did the finale of Side Show after they were closed down. Rags was also closed and they did a full number (Judy Kuhn was in two numbers that nite, Rags and Les Miz.) I think it depends partly on how much of a number they can put up with the cast having moved on, so the Emily and Alice could just stand and sing, so Chita could just do a number, no set would be necessary.
Id rather see her than anything from WS, unless Felicia does the break up letter.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:40am

The most recent case of producers of the telecast refusing to let a nominated closed show perform was with the "Big River" revival a few years ago, if I remember correctly. And that production was about to start a national tour, so there was plenty of reason to give them a performance slot. Instead, video clips from the production were shown.

ETA: "Pacific Overtures" did not perform last year, but with "Big River" I remember there being a big deal made in the press regarding their having been denied a performance slot since the tour was about to begin.

Updated On: 5/12/06 at 09:40 AM

[Corine2]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:45am

The Butcher has spoken.
He did forget a very important person.
John L. Young for leading man. Daniel Reichard for supporting.

I hope that Felicia P Fields and La Chanze get nominations.

Updated On: 5/12/06 at 09:45 AM

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:46am

I would HATE if something was nominated just because it is still open. If WIW or Chita are better than the running pieces of crap, than they should be nominated, number or not.

Last year, the network said that no closed shows will perform, that was the first time it was a rule. I believe that their reasoning was to keep the numbers to a minimum. I expect the reasoning is that if someone wants to watch the Tonys, they will, and if not, they wont. It wont matter if WIW performs or not. They know the ratings will suck.

Nominating a show because it needs box office help is one reason this Tonyphile would boycott.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:49am

doodlenyc, read my post above re: Big River. Last year was not the first year closed shows were denied a performance slot.

Also, you're totally wrong regarding the network not caring about the numbers. The numbers are ALL they care about. That's how they make money. Why else would we have LL Cool J and Renee Zellweger presenting and Aretha Franklin performing?

Updated On: 5/12/06 at 09:49 AM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:55am

Reidel is the one who pointed out that JLY is getting help singing his high notes so I guess he left him out for a reason.
BIG RIVER got screwed, that was an Amazing Revival.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 9:57am

Sorry...the Big River controversy was two years ago. I thought that controversy was what made the network say that NO closed musicals would perform last year, which knocked PO out of the lineup.

However it happened, my point is that it can be tought to put up a number when the whole crew has moved on from a closed show. That has kept many shows from performing. Thank God we got to see Loudon sing 50 percent!

[jdixon69]

Posted: 5/12/06 at 10:16am

IMO... you'd have to really, really detest each of the recently opened musicals (besides DC) to nominate WIW. Cause that show's not just closed.... it's bad.