The Official Tony Awards Prediction Thread

Here's my thoughts. Note: I'm predicting "High" will be ruled ineligible due to its short run (much like "Elling", which ran the exact same number of performances earlier this season). If it is eligible, though, Kathleen Turner and Evan Jonigkeit probably find their way into their respective categories.

BEST MUSICAL
Book of Mormon
Catch Me If You Can
The People in the Picture
The Scottsboro Boys

Winner: Mormon. There's no stopping it at this point--nothing else has gotten even half the raves it has. Either "Sister Act" or "Priscilla" could replace "Catch Me", but Tony voters seem to like the creatives behind "Catch Me", so I'll give it the edge even with the negative write-ups.

BEST PLAY
Good People
Jerusalem
The Motherf**ker With The Hat
War Horse

Winner: Good People. Both "Jerusalem" and "War Horse" are gaining considerable ground, but "People" has still been the biggest hit of the season from a play standpoint. I also still think it's possible "Lombardi" sneaks into his category as the fourth nominee, but for now I'll give "Motherf**ker" the edge since it opened more recently.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Anything Goes
How To Succeed...

Winner: Anything Goes. Almost as much of a guarantee as "Mormon", with the predominantly negative write-ups "How To Succeed" got.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart

Winner: Earnest (pending potential raves for "Normal Heart"). This is actually pretty wide open as all three shows that have opened were almost unanimously praised, but "Earnest" has been the biggest hit with its four-month extension, and has carried that momentum all the way to Tony season.

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Brian Bedford (Earnest)
Bobby Canavale (Motherf**ker)
Joe Mantello (Normal Heart)
Al Pacino (Merchant)
Mark Rylance (Jerusalem)

Winner: Rylance. Even the Tony's love of Mantello can't derail them from recognizing Rylance's brilliant and unanimously heralded performance. MAYBE the slightest chance of an upset from Pacino, but I really don't see anyone else having a shot.

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Nina Arianda (Born Yesterday)
Frances McDormand (Good People)
Lily Rabe (Merchant)
Vanessa Redgrave (Driving Miss Daisy)
Annabella Sciorra (Motherf**ker)

Winner: McDormand. Respected veteran actress who's never won finally gets it here, but Arianda could definitely surprise (and I'd say Lily Rabe has a shot, but "Merchant"'s been closed too long).

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Josh Gad (Mormon)
Daniel Radcliffe (How To Succeed)
Andrew Rannells (Mormon)
Tony Sheldon (Priscilla)
Aaron Tveit (Catch Me If You Can)

Winner: Gad. Radcliffe has gained a lot of momentum, but Gad is giving arguably the funniest and most heartfelt performance on Broadway in the almost guaranteed Best Musical winner. This will be a case of the far better-liked show carrying it's star to a win. Side note: I haven't seen "Catch Me", but from what I understand Tveit's part is far bigger that Norbert Leo Butz's. If not, though, I could easily see Butz getting the nod instead.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sutton Foster (Anything Goes)
Beth Leavel (Baby It's You)
Patina Miller (Sister Act)
Donna Murphy (People in the Picture)
Sherie Renee Scott (Women On The Verge)

Winner: Foster. I think this comes down to Foster vs. Murphy (sorry Patina fans, I just don't see her carrying this momentum all the way through Tony season against these two beloved veterans). While I personally thought Murphy was far better and more deserving, Foster's playing a classic role in a breakout hit of a show and will carry that to a win.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Mackenzie Crook (Jerusalem)
Billy Crudup (Arcadia)
Tate Donovan (Good People)
Raul Esparza (Arcadia)
Seth Numrich (War Horse)

Winner: Crook. Really, none of these seem like sure-fire winners, but Crook got the best write-ups of the bunch, so I'll give him the edge (although if he's too overshadowed by Rylance, this could finally be the year Esparza wins).

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Becky Ann Baker (Good People)
Ellen Barkin (Normal Heart)
Dana Ivey (Earnest)
Judith Light (Lombardi)
Estelle Parsons (Good People)

Winner: Parsons. Legend making a comeback on Broadway these days is rewarded in another relatively weak category.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Colin Donnell (Anything Goes)
John Laroquette (How To Succeed)
Rory O'Malley (Mormon)
Tom Wopat (Catch Me)
Chip Zien (People In The Picture)

Winner: Wopat. O'Malley could take it if it turns into a "Mormon" sweep, but I think they reward the veteran character actor finally getting a showstopping role here (much like Gregory Jbara in this category a couple years ago).

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Laura Benanti (Women On The Verge)
Victoria Clark (Sister Act)
Rose Hemmingway (How To Succeed)
Nikki M. James (Mormon)
Nicole Parker (People In The Picture)

Winner: James. Steals the show in the season's biggest hit. Parker could steal if "People" starts gaining momentum, but otherwise I don't see James losing.

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Rob Ashford (How To Succeed)
Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes)
Trey ParkerCasey Nicholaw (Mormon)
Susan Stroman (Scottsboro)

Winner: ParkerNicholaw. Directors of the best musical of the season get their due, with only Marshall standing the slightest chance of an upset.

DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Brian Bedford (Earnest)
Marianne Elliot and Tom Norris (War Horse)
Daniel Sullivan (Good People)
Daniel Sullivan (Merchant)

Winner: Sullivan (Good People). Logic says pick "War Horse", but Best Play and Best Director of a Play have matched each other 6 straight years and 9 of the past 11, making Sullivan the favorite in my book.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford (How To Succeed)
Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes)
Casey Nicholaw (Mormon)
Susan Stroman (Scottsboro)

Winner: Marshall. The Tony's love her, and they loved her show and her work on her show. Nicholaw should win, frankly, but they'll give him his due in the Direction category instead of here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Book of Mormon
Catch Me If You Can
People In the Picture
Scottsboro Boys

Winner: Mormon. Almost as much of a lock as it winning Best Musical.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Book of Mormon
Catch Me If You Can
Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act

Winner: Mormon. Again, none of the other new musicals come close to matching this.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Anything Goes
Book of Mormon
Catch Me If You Can
Sister Act

Winner: Anything Goes. More rewarding a full orchestra playing a classic score on Broadway than the actual orchestrations themselves.

I won't go into all the tech categories right now, but my predictions for winners would be a "War Horse" sweep on the play front, with "Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson" taking sound of a musical, "Priscilla" taking costumes, and either "Wonderland" or "Mormon" taking setslights (or splitting).

These threads always provide good laughs. It's pretty pointless to even start predicting until we receive the final eligibility ruling next week.

Best Musical:
The Book of Mormon
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Sister Act

Best Play:
Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Jerusalem
The Mother****er with the Hat
War Horse

Best Revival of a Musical:
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Best Revival of a Play:
Born Yesterday
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart

Best Actor in a Musical:
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me if You Can
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert

Best Actress in a Musical:
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Beth Leavel, Baby It's You
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Best Actor in a Play:
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Mother****er with the Hat
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem
Robin Williams, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo

Best Actress in a Play:
Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves
Frances McDormand, Good People
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice
Kathleen Turner, High

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Colin Donnell, Anything Goes
Joel Grey, Anything Goes
John Laroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon
Tom Wopat, Catch Me if You Can

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kerry Butler, Catch Me if You Can
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon

Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
Raul Esparza, Arcadia
Jon Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart
Seth Numrich, War Horse

Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart
Judith Light, Lombardi
Estelle Parsons, Good People
Annabella Sciorra, The Mother****er with the Hat
Lia Williams, Arcadia

Best Direction of a Musical:
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Jack O'Brien, Catch Me if You Can
Trey Parker and Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys

Best Direction of a Play:
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse
Ian Rickson, Jerusalem
Daniel Sullivan, The Merchant of Venice

Best Choreography:
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Ross Coleman, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon

Best Book of a Musical:
Iris Rainer Dart, The People in the Picture
Robert Lopez, Matt Stone, Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon
Terrence McNally, Brian Yorkey, Catch Me if You Can
Cheri Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner, Douglas Carter Beane, Sister Act

Best Original Score:
John Kander, Fred Ebb, The Scottsboro Boys
Robert Lopez, Matt Stone, Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon
Alan Menken, Glenn Slater, Sister Act
Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman, Catch Me if You Can

Best Orchestrations:
Doug Besterman, How to Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
Michale Gibson, Bill Elliott, Anything Goes
Larry Hochman, Stephen Oremus, The Book of Mormon
Marc Shaiman, Larry Blank, Catch Me if You Can

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
Derek McLane, Anything Goes
Scott Pask, The Book of Mormon
Neil Patel, Wonderland
Brian Thomson, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert

Best Scenic Design of a Play:
Arcadia
A Free Man of Color
The Importance of Being Earnest
War Horse

Best Lighting Design of a Play:
Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Brief Encounter
Jerusalem
War Horse

Best Costume Design of a Play:
A Free Man of Color
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
War Horse

Best Sound Design of a Play:
Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Brief Encounter
The Merchant of Venice
War Horse

Best Costume Design of a Musical:
Tim Chappel, Lizzy Gardiner, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Susan Hilferty, Wonderland
Ann Roth, The Book of Mormon
Catherine Zuber, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Howell Binkley, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Natasha Katz, Sister Act
Brian MacDevitt, The Book of Mormon
Nick Shlieper, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert

Best Sound Design of a Musical:
Steve Canyon, Catch Me if You Can
Brian Ronan, The Book of Mormon
Jon Shivers, Sister Act
Jon Weston, How to Succed in Business Without Really Trying

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Updated On: 4/24/11 at 06:42 PM

There's "no chance"? But I thought it was "pointless to start predicting", ljay? You sure are confusing me.

But anyway, I did mean to include her but forgot her. Fixed!

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There is absolutely no point in doing this until we know the placement for sure to be nominees Tony Sheldon, Norbert Leo Butz, Josh Gad, Robin Williams, Rose Hemingway, Ellen Barkin, etc. Their placement will drastically alter anyone's predictions.

But, as Wishing and Ljay said, these threads sure are amusing.

Updated On: 4/24/11 at 07:16 PM

MUSICAL:
Anything Goes
Book of Mormon
Sister Act
Priscilla
Winner: Mormon

PLAY:
Good People
Motherfu*ker with the Hat
Jerusalem
War Horse
Winner: Jerusalem

Best Actor Musical:
Tony Sheldon - Priscilla
Josh Gad - Mormon
Norbert Leo Butz - CMIYC
Daniel Radcliffe - How to Succeed
Andrew Rannelles - Mormon
Winner: Tony Sheldon

Best Actress Musical:
Patina Miller - Sister Act
Sutton Foster - Anything Goes
Donna Murphy - People in the Picture
Sherie Renee Scott - Women on Verge
Winner: Sutton Foster

Best Actor Play:
Al Pacino - Merchant
Mark Rylance - Jerusalem
Bobby Cannavale - Motherfuc*er
Brian Bedford - Importance of Being earnest
Joe Mantello - Normal Heart
Winner: Mark Rylance

Best Actress Play:
Frances McDormand - Good People
Elizabeth Rodriguez - Motherfuc*er
Vanessa Redgrave - Miss Daisy
Lily Rabe - Merchant
Nina Arianda - Born Yesterday
Winner: McDormand (But if Rodriguez is Featured Category I think she could win)

Featured Actor Musical:
Joel Grey
Rory O'Malley
John Larroquette
Tom Wopat
Winner: O'Malley

Featured Actress Musical:
Victoria Clark
Laura Benanti
Nikki M. Jones
Kerry Butler
Winner: Benanti

Featured Actor Play:
Mackenzie Crook
John Benjamin Hickey
Yul Vazquez
Seth Numrich
Winner: Hickey or Vazquez

Featured Actress Play:
Ellen Barkin
Estelle Parsons
Judith Light
Becky Ann Baker
Dana Ivey
Winner: Estelle Parsons (or possibly Elizabeth Rodriguez if in Featured Category)

Choreography:
Winner: Kathleen Marshall - Anything Goes

Director Musical:
Winner: Trey Parker and Casey Nicholaw - Mormon

Director Play:
Winner: Marianne elliot and Tom Morris - War Horse

I forgot to put Arian Moayed from Bengal Tiger on my list for Best Featured Actor in a play. He definitely deserves to be nominated.

howdy. new here. I agree with many of your choices (at least nominee wise...) but didn't Anything Goes and How To get about the same good reviews? Times aside...

Thanks!
Then i'll replace it on my list with Scottsboro.

My Tony Award Nomination Predictions (Each nominee in the category is ranked from 1-4 or 1-5 with 1 being the most likely to win)

Best Musical
1. The Book of Mormon
2. Sister Act
3. Catch Me If You Can
4. Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
(outside hope for “The People in the Picture”, but barring excellent reviews remains an unlikely prospect)

Best Play
1. War Horse
2. Good People
3. Jerusalem
4. The Motherf**ker with the Hat
(the last slot could go to “Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo”)

Best Revival of a Play
1. The Normal Heart
2. The Importance of Being Earnest
3. The House of Blue Leaves
4. Born Yesterday
(I could see “The Merchant of Venice” or “Arcadia” slipping into this category, but “Heart” and “Earnest” are locks. My money is on “The Normal Heart” for the win.)

Best Revival of a Musical
1. Anything Goes
2. How to Succeed…
(I think this is an easy win for “Anything Goes”)

Best Actor in a Musical (dependent on placement for all acting categories)
1. Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed…
2. Aaron Tveit, Catch Me If You Can
3. Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
4. Tony Sheldon, Priscilla QOD
5. Benjamin Walker, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
(Josh Gad could take the last spot here, as could Norbert Leo Butz if he is placed in this category. Call it the Hugh Jackman effect, but I foresee a Radcliffe victory)

Best Actress in a Musical
1. Patina Miller, Sister Act
2. Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
3. Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
4. Beth Leavel, Baby, It’s You
5. Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
(Janet Dacal could sneak in here, and if “Baby” is absolutely destroyed in reviews, I do think Beth Leavel will not be nodded.)
Featured Actor in a Musical
1. Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon
2. Colin Donnell, Anything Goes
3. Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can
4. John Larroquette, How to Succeed…
5. Joel Grey, Anything Goes
(Yet another category that will be hard to set until we get placement of the men in "Catch Me if You Can" and "Anything Goes". Rory O'Malley is getting a nod and is the front-runner. I think if Colin Donnell is entered in this category, which he should be, he has a strong chance of winning. If Norbert Leo Butz is placed in this category, he will be nodded. If not, I think Tom Wopat will grab his spot. John Larroquette and Joel Grey will likely carry enough name recognition to capture nods.)

Featured Actress in a Musical
1. Nikki James, The Book of Mormon
2. Victoria Clark, Sister Act
3. Rose Hemmingway, How to Succeed…
4. Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
5. Kate Shindle, Wonderland
(Nicole Parker or Rachel Resheff from “People in the Picture” could snag a slot, as could Tammy Blanchard)

Leading Actor in a Play
1. Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
2. Mark Rylance, Jerusalem
3. Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
4. Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
5. Robin Williams, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
(I could see Al Pacino, Ben Stiller, Jim Belushi, or Billy Crudup sneaking in and knocking out Cannavale or Williams, but this is really a two man race between Mantello and Rylance. I’m giving the edge to Mantello since Rylance just won this award recently)

Leading Actress in a Play
1. Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday
2. Frances McDormand, Good People
3. Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves
4. Kathleen Turner, High
5. Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Other Contenders (in order of chance to gain a nod): Lily Rabe (The Merchant of Venice), Cherry Jones (Mrs.Warren's Profession), Hannah Yelland (Brief Encounter)
(This category is actually pretty set. The only surprise I could foresee would be Lily Rabe sneaking into the spot I have set aside for Vanessa Redgrave. I think that Nina Arianda will win Best Actress in a Play this year. Frances McDormand will make it competitive, but I think ultimately Nina Arianda will prevail.)


Featured Actor in a Play
1. John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart
2. Robert Sean Leonard, Born Yesterday
3. Yul Vazquez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
4. Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
5. Seth Numrich, War Horse
(A lot of other contenders in this field, especially Tate Donovan, Kiefer Sutherland, Jim Parsons, Lee Pace, Chris Noth, and Raul Esparza, but I have a feeling this will be the field)

Featured Actress in a Play
1. Judith Light, Lombardi
2. Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart
3. Estelle Parsons, Good People
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The House of Blue Leaves
5. Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
(One of the ladies from “Arcadia” or Christina Ricci could sneak into the 4 or 5 spots))

Director of a Musical
1. Casey Nicolaw and Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon
2. Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
3. Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
4. Jerry Zaks, Sister Act
(Rob Ashford and Jack O’Brien have minor chances here, but I have a feeling this will be the field with Nicolaw and Parker walking away victorious).

Director of a Play
1. Marianne Elliot and Tom Norris, War Horse
2. Daniel Sullivan, Good People
3. Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe, The Normal Heart
4. Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
(Ian Rickson for “Jerusalem” could sneak in here. Sullivan could be nominated for “The Merchant of Venice”, David Leveaux for “Arcadia”

Book of a Musical
1. The Book of Mormon
2. The Scottsboro Boys
3. Bloody, Bloody Andrew Jackson
4. Sister Act

Score of a Musical
1. The Book of Mormon
2. The Scottsboro Boys
3. Sister Act
4. Catch Me if You Can

Choreography
1. Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
2. Rob Ashford, How to Succeed…
3. Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
4. Casey Nicolaw, The Book of Mormon