The Predict Closings Game

[JRTO]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:09pm

What do you think will close between now and Feb.?

Here are my educated guesses:

13
Avenue Q
August: Osage County
Spamalot
Spring Awakening
Young Frankenstein

and quite possibly Poppins.

You will notice that Hairspray is NOT on my list.
Updated On: 10/13/08 at 06:09 PM

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:10pm

Educated HOW? 4 of those are running on pure profit.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:11pm

6, if you count Poppins and Hairspray

[JRTO]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:13pm

Wait and see how long they will run once they have to start paying running costs out of that 'pure profit' because they can't make their nut.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:14pm

Do we really need another closing thread?

But I would go with (besides the confirmed ones):

13
Spring Awakening
A Tale of Two Cities
Spamalot
Avenue Q
Mary Poppins

[NGD2225]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:17pm

I think that Tale has found it footing & will be around for a (little) while. I give it 6 more months.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:42pm

I don't think Spring Awakening has had a week yet where they've lost money. You think those kids (save for Hunter Parrish, perhaps) are getting paid any more than scale? I think they'll be ok, as will Mary Poppins, which will run until Disney has something else to put into the New Amsterdam. They won't let their flagship theater sit dark for any extended period of time.

13 and Tale of Two Cities seem to be in the most immediate danger.

I'd venture a guess that Spamalot's final performance will be Clay Aiken's final performance, on January 4, 2009. I also think Young Frankenstein will close up shop then, too.

And I DO think that Hairspray will stick to its January 18 closing date.

[dg22894]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:50pm

Here are my educated guesses:

13
Tale of Two Cities
Spamalot
Poppins
Young Frankenstein
BOEING-BOEING
To Be Or Not to Be
Speed The Plow


I think Hairspray will extend like Rent did

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 6:52pm

Do limited runs count? Both To Be or Not to Be and Speed the Plow are limited runs, scheduled to close this winter anyway.

[D2]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 7:06pm

I predict every show currently running on Broadway will eventually close. Yes, even POTO.

[NGD2225]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 7:11pm

D2 you must be some sort of Psychic.

[JRTO]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 8:07pm

Here's the thing with Poppins- it's launching a National Tour in March.

With the economy the way it is, I bet that it will want to funnel all the remaining tourists to LK and LM, with one of them moving back into the New Amsterdam after Poppins leaves.

The broadway production will set up shop in Chicago- saving a huge amount of set up costs, and instead of having to recoup, will pretty much have profit from day one.

The road is much more risky-er than it use to be.

[monkeybutt]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 8:14pm

Boeing Boeing is not going to close because they just recouped

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 8:15pm

Yeah, I retract Mary Poppins and Spring Awakening. It's hard for SA to lose money, and Disney won't close Poppins unless they have something else in the pipeline or it's losing some SERIOUS cash.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 8:15pm

Double Post...

Updated On: 10/13/08 at 08:15 PM

[Robert Taylor]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 9:34pm

Wow, there are SO many negative threads being posted today...it's astonishing.

Here's hoping the shows hang on until at least the holidays so that their casts and crews have a job and can bring home presents to their children. *fingers crossed*

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 9:49pm

The broadway production will set up shop in Chicago- saving a huge amount of set up costs, and instead of having to recoup, will pretty much have profit from day one.

Well, no. They're re-designing the set for the tour, because they couldn't possibly tour the house the way it is now. What it's going to look like is a closely guarded secret at the moment. The Broadway production will not be "setting up shop" in Chicago. That will be an all new production, with a modified set design.

[JRTO]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 9:52pm

It's fairly easy to modify an existing set. Much easier than creating a whole new one.

[ThankstoPhantom]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:23pm

Where are these predictions coming from?

Poppins is not likely to close within the next 4 months...I'd say the end of next year would be a reasonable prediction (albeit pure speculation based on CURRENT trends), but not January 2009. The show recouped within a year, and did very good summer business. It recently cast two imported actors in the leads, and, apparently, they are reteching certain moments in the show (correct me if this was pure rumor).

Updated On: 10/13/08 at 10:23 PM

[Lynnespock2]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:26pm

I don't understand why these threads exist. It's like there are vultures waiting to pick the bones of the bodies of these shows.

These threads dreary and depressing. Why not wait for the show to announce rather than flying over head waiting on the dying?

[Robert Taylor]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:28pm

I could not agree with you more, Lynnespock2

[ACL2006]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:32pm

My predictions

TO BE ANNOUNCED SOON:
13
A Tale of Two Cities

EARLY WINTER CLOSING(Jan.):
The 39 Steps
Spamalot
Spring Awakening
Young Frankenstein


LATE WINTER CLOSING(Mar.):
August: Osage County
Boeing-Boeing
Hairspray(w/extension)
Gypsy
Grease

There's going to be a lot of empty theaters come next spring.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:36pm

Oh, I wouldn't hang a closing notice on 39 Steps quite so cavalierly.

[Robert Taylor]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:38pm

Smaxie, I wouldn't hang closing notices on most of these shows so cavalierly, but still they continue.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/13/08 at 10:40pm

I love how people have shows closing that have not had a single week where they've lost money yet. Several of the shows people have mentioned as closing are making a profit every week.