Time Out New York's Tony Predictions

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:16pm

PLAY
Will Win: Doubt
Should Win: Pillowman

MUSICAL
Will Win: Spamalot
Should Win: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels

BOOK
Will Win: Eric Idle, Spamalot
Should Win: Rachel Sheinkin, Spelling Bee

SCORE
Will Win: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Should Win: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels

REVIVAL -- PLAY
Will Win: Virginia Woolf
Should Win: Glengarry Glen Ross

REVIVAL -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Sweet Charity
Should Win: Pacific Overtures

ACTOR -- PLAY
Will Win: Billy Crudup
Should Win: Brian O'Byrne

ACTRESS -- PLAY
Will Win: Kathleen Turner
Should Win: Cherry Jones

ACTOR -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Norbert Leo Butz
Should Win: Norbert Leo Butz

ACTRESS -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Victoria Clark
Should Win: Victoria Clark

FEATURED ACTOR -- PLAY
Will Win: Alan Alda
Should Win: Michael Stuhlbarg

FEATURED ACTRESS -- PLAY
Will Win: Amy Ryan
Should Win: Adriane Lenox

FEATURED ACTOR -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Dan Fogler
Should Win: Dan Fogler

FEATURED ACTRESS -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Sara Ramirez
Should Win: Jan Maxwell

DIRECTION -- PLAY
Will Win: Doug Hughes
Should Win: Doug Hughes

DIRECTION -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Mike Nichols
Should Win: Mike Nichols

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:19pm

Will win and should win best score: DRS?

I don't agree with that at all. Not that the score isn't great, but Piazza c'mon. I think Scoundrels is a bit too raunchy for some Tony voters.

[umgeoboy]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:22pm

Wow I completely disagree with the revival of play category.

Twelve angry men should win (but I do agree that I think Wolf will win )

[LaCageAuxFollesFan2]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:23pm

Wow - I don't agree w/most of these! Book, Revival Play/Musical, Actor/Actress in a Play I HIGHLY disagree with ALL of them!

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:24pm

I think whatever group of TONY writers sat down and made those predictions did so after partaking of one too many special brownies.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:25pm

Yeah, he's WAY off...

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:28pm

I do think they're way off, especially given the buzz surrounding particular performances. I would say Crudup is anything but a "will win" for the Pillowman, even though I would love to see it.
There are others on there that just sound ridiculously based on nothing but that one stands out the most.

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:28pm

The predictions are by David Cote and Adam Feldman -- Time Out New York's main theatre critics.

Not to say that that means anything or that they're right ........

[wendy72]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:29pm

Does anyone who's seen "Spelling Bee fail" to see why Dan Fogler's performance was any more special/nomination-worthy than Jose's or Jesse's? He was good, but friends who have seen Matthew Morrison or Christopher Sieber have praised their work to a MUCH greater extent..

[jasobres]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:29pm

WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???????!!!!

REVIVAL -- MUSICAL
Will Win: Sweet Charity
Should Win: Pacific Overtures

Don't make me laugh! (Sarcastic lol) BOTH of those productions were trash!

Updated On: 6/1/05 at 02:29 PM

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:29pm

Did someone say "special brownies"? mmm

[robbiej]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:31pm

Crack is wack.

I don't do crack.

It's a poor person's drug.

[magruder]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:34pm

Actually, Time Out says Doubt will win and should win for Best Play.

Here's the text:

WILL WIN: After nabbing the Pulitzer and a slew of other awards, Doubt playwright John Patrick Shanley will need to make space on his mantel for one more.

SHOULD WIN: The Pillowman is the dark horse, but Shanley's eloquent examination of faith deserves the prize.

Updated On: 6/1/05 at 02:34 PM

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:35pm

Oops, your right Magruder

[uncageg]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:51pm

Having not seen all nominated shows and performances I am not even going to guess. But look at what happened last year....

I just don't think DRS should win for best score. I wasn't humming it when I left the theatre. Give them What They Want and the Dirty Rotten Number are the only 2 songs that really stood out for me when I saw the show. Although, I am listening to the copy I got at the show and the music is ok to listen to if you have seen the show. I don't think it stands well just on its own though.

[magruder]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:52pm

And for Actress in a Play, they also say that Cherry Jones will win and should win.

Text below:

WILL WIN: The mighty Kathleen Turner, right, gives a hurricane of a performance, but voters are more likely to go Cherry-picking.

SHOULD WIN: As the conflicted nun at the heart of Doubt, Cherry Jones comes in with a wimple and goes out with a bang.

[baddadnpa]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:53pm

A score that stands up on its own out of context of the story is not a prerequesite for winning a Tony. In fact, I think a score that is forever tied to its book is far more worthy of a Tony for best score than a score that can easily be sung outside of the show.

[Princeton78]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:55pm

I love these predictions.

The Tonys this year are sounding waaaay too predictable. A bit like the Oscars this year...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...............................

[friesgirl]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:57pm

"Does anyone who's seen "Spelling Bee fail" to see why Dan Fogler's performance was any more special/nomination-worthy than Jose's or Jesse's? He was good, but friends who have seen Matthew Morrison or Christopher Sieber have praised their work to a MUCH greater extent.."

I haven't seen Spamalot, but I have seen Spelling Bee, Chitty, and Piazza, and IMO I found Jose to be the male highlight of Spelling Bee for me. I liked Fogler, but not nearly enough that he lived up to the insane amount of hype he seems to be getting. The material was funny, but there is no question that Morrison has a much harder role, with the language difference, vocal demands, and the emotional execution of the material.

It amazes me how people continue to badmouth Marissa Jaret Winokur for her lack of vocal skills when Fogler continues to be praised for his performance, which though, while personally enjoyable, is not exactly the most vocally satisfying by any means. Is there a double standard at work here?

Updated On: 6/1/05 at 02:57 PM

[twogaab2]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:57pm

I'm glad I don't have to make any of these choices. To have to compare the score of a farce and a serious musical play is almost impossible. I enjoyed all of these equally. It is good to have such a strong season. There were many, many strong performances (many worthy perfomances were omitted). It makes me very happy to have been able to see so many of them.

[MagicToDo82]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:57pm

Wow....gotta say I don't really agree with many of those. Is Kathleen Turner really a definite over Cherry Jones? How did Spelling Bee and Piazza get shunned so much, and Jan Maxwell should win instead of Sara Ramirez? I thought that Kelli O'hara was the darling underdog in that category. And Sweet Charity as Best Revival? Really?

Whatever. Smoke up, Time out New York.

[jasobres]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 2:58pm

The score is DEFINITELY going to Spamalot. I mean for the past four years, people, FUNNY HAS ALWAYS WON!!! Lookatit:

2001: The Producers (Mel Brooks)
2002: Urinetown (Mark Hollmann, Greg Kotis)
2003: Hairspray (Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman) (who could ever forget that kiss?)
2004: Avenue Q (Jeff Marx, Bobby Lopez)

However, there may be competition with Bee and DRS, I dunno. But I left the Shubert Theatre whistling "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life" (I know that was not written for the show, but still...)

[wendy72]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 3:07pm

I'm with ya friesgirl...and I though Marissa was great.

[whatyouown223]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 3:16pm

"I don't agree with that at all. Not that the score isn't great, but Piazza c'mon. I think Scoundrels is a bit too raunchy for some Tony voters."

And Q wasn't too raunchy?
Updated On: 6/1/05 at 03:16 PM

[jasobres]

Posted: 6/1/05 at 3:20pm

Just a little OT: Isn't it ironic how the initials of Time Out New York are "TONY"?