It only appears as if many shows have gone "silent." Without any date for the voting period or ceremony, shows are not going to ramp up campaigning for a Tony. If they start that up too early (like if they had some big event now but the ceremony isn't until May) it wouldnt help them at all. Expect that side of things to snap into focus once the powers that be finally announce a date.
As for predictions, I agree that Moulin Rouge! is ahead. A big joyful spectacle is going to look pretty appealing during the most joyless stressful time in history for Broadway. There is a long difficult road ahead for the industry and this is the type of show that can bring ticket buyers back.
Some of the pundits seem to let their own likes/dislikes get in the way of their predictions...ok well maybe just Harry Haun. I don't know why he is so dismissive of A Soldier's Play winning revival. Whether he liked it or not, its undeniable that it got great reviews, features an important and timely subject, and overperformed in nominations. Sure it's possible that Betrayal takes it, but then why couldn't it get in Zawe Ashton or Charlie Cox if it was that strong? On paper, the race is A Soldier's Play's to lose.
It feels like all the musical categories are pretty locked up this year. I guess there's a real race for Book...since all of these books are full of problems its difficult to choose the winner (In the video Musto says Score should have been eliminated this year but I strongly disagree. There was some wonderful music in the plays. It's Book that should have disappeared as I'm skeptical any of these three would have made the cut in a full season). But JLP has the most book scenes and most topical content, so it takes Book along with Featured Actress for Patten. Warren wins for Tina. Moulin Rouge wins everything else. End of story.
Play categories are much more exciting. Genuine races for Play, Lead Actor, Featured Actor, Director, Score, design categories. And while I agree that MLP is out front for Lead Actress, I can see a world in which Kalukango pulls off an upset.
