Tony predictions

[laughingplace]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:51am

What will be tony nominated for best musical and best play ?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 7:16am

There may already be hundreds of threads on this, but...

Best Play:
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III

Here are my current thoughts on Best Musical:

Who's In?:
Hamilton

Who Could Join It?:
On Your Feet!
School of Rock

Looking Solid (from early reports):
American Psycho
Waitress

Lookout For:
Shuffle Along...(if they can get the show in great shape by opening night)
Tuck Everlasting

Longshots:
Allegiance
Amazing Grace
Bright Star
Disaster!

Updated On: 3/29/16 at 07:16 AM

[Alex10]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 7:59am

Hamilton is an obvious lock. I think that based on the great early word for American Psycho and Waitress and the generally stronger reviews for School of Rock that On Your Feet! doesn't have much of a chance, but you never know.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 9:51am

I hate to keep this thread going because it's one of four billion on the subject... But I will be shocked if On Your Feet! gets a Best Musical nod.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:11pm

I'll say SCHOOL OR ROCK gets that 4th nomination unless SHUFFLE ALONG makes some drastic changes this week. The locks should be: HAMILTON, WAITRESS & AMERICAN PSYCHO.

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:18pm

Can there be up to 5 nominees for Best Musical under that new 'tie' rule? Or does that just apply in the performance categories?

 

I predict: HAMILTON, WAITRESS, AMERICAN PSYCHO, SHUFFLE ALONG and maybe SCHOOL OF ROCK.

[funhamilton_rent]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:20pm

For Best Musical:

American Psycho

Hamilton

Shuffle Along

Waitress

 

And Best Play:

Eclipsed

The Father

The Humans

King Charles III

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:24pm

If there are at least 9 eligible shows for the Best Production categories, the nominators will be given four slots to fill. A fifth nominee can be possible, if there is a close race between two shows in the nominating process.

If there are up to 5 eligible shows for the top awards, the nominators will be given three slots to fill. A fourth nominee can still be possible, if (again) there is a close race between two shows in the nominating process.

Updated On: 3/29/16 at 12:24 PM

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:29pm

Sorry if this is already covered elsewhere, but isn't Shuffle Along trying to position itself as a revival?  Does anyone think there is any chance it could be thrown into the revival category?  

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:32pm

^From early reports, it seems to be more along the lines of a new musical.

[HarrietTaylor]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:34pm

Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress, American Psycho

The Humans, King Charles, Eclipsed, The Father

[vampire musical]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:36pm

Daddy Warbucks said: "Sorry if this is already covered elsewhere, but isn't Shuffle Along trying to position itself as a revival?  Does anyone think there is any chance it could be thrown into the revival category?  

 

"

They are trying to do that.  But the show is 90% new material.  I don't think the Tony Committee will buy the revival argument. 

[jkstheatrescene]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:42pm

It may be worth noting that on the Tony Awards website, Shuffle Along is under the "Category to Be Determined" heading:

 

http://www.tonyawards.com/en_US/broadway/spotlight/

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:43pm

Best Play

 

The Humans

The Father

 

Best Actor

 

Frank Langella - The Father

 

Best Musical

 

H

On Your Feet - Sorry about disagreeing with others on this

[Unknown User]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:50pm

I think the only for sure nominees for both are....

Musical:

Hamilton (which has basically already won...especially if it wins the pulitzer)

School of Rock (people seem to be forgetting that this got good reviews and is respected by theater people, but its also a hit)

Waitress (Sara's score and Jessie's performance alone will secure it a nomination but it's also a decent smaller musical)

The fourth nominee is up for grabs yet (I would be surprised if it's American  Psycho and there is talk that Shuffle Along is a revival)

Play

King Charles the III (the nytimes called it an instant classic)

The Humans (also called one of the best plays of the year)

Eclipsed (a decent play about unique subject matter, with diversity and great performances)

The fourth nominee is up for grabs (that being said its a very small number of new plays produced on Broadway this year...my opinion, keep it at these three)

 

 

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 12:56pm

I don't think Psycho is anywhere near a "lock."

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/29/16 at 8:31pm

I am not a play person so I will just focus on Musical. There are so many things right on the edge here that there is no telling how it's gonna go. This is a SUPER insanely strong season. One of the strongest seasons I have seen in years. The deciding factors, in my opinion, right now comes down to three things. 

1. How well received (or not) Tuck Everlasting is. It could surprise people being the "Aladdin" of the season. The show that people find to be so-so but critics love it and it's family friendly nature, letting it squeeze into a spot. Plus Casey's shows tend to be Tony nomination DARLINGS even when they are only okay.
2. The changes Shuffle Along makes during their hiatus will really be the make or break for them getting a nomination. It has the potential but can they tap into it and fix it up before it's too late?
3. The reviews on American Psycho. There seems to be no real agreement so far among the audiences as to if it's a hit or a miss so there is no telling at this point which side of the street the critics and eventually the nominating committee will be on if they ended up being as torn as the audiences seem to be.

So I'd say as of right now we have Hamilton as the only LOCK in the category. It's gonna be likely joined by School of Rock in Slot 2. Right on the edge of the bubble are Waitress, American Psycho, Shuffle, Tuck, AND On Your Feet! (who easily could slide in there should all three of the above shows I mentioned flop with critics). Everything else from the season isn't a factor in the race. This could be the year that the 5th slot gets used though, no doubt. It's just SO strong and those things on the bubble are SO evenly matched at this point.