What is the next long running show to close?

Just wondering what/when you guys predict will close next that is long-running (meaning over 1000+ performances)?

I'm thinking that Avenue Q, Chicago, Spamalot, and possibly Hairspray are in long-term danger, meaning by the end of 2009, they will likely be gone...

I also can say with confidence that Mamma Mia!, Lion King, Jersey Boys, Wicked, Mary Poppins, and Phantom appear to be in no imminent danger anytime in the forseeable future...

I think Avenue Q id in the most danger, and Chicago follows right behind. I think Hairspray has a few more years but i not going to go over 10 years.

I think Phantom might not have much time left in it.

Yeah, I guess the reality that it still does about 90% weekly validates this.

Oy!

Spamalot seems to be struggling a bit without stunt casting.

That or Avenue Q. They're the kind of shows that the tourists who want to see it have seen it already, not like Phantom, Mamma Mia!, etc., which have universal tourist appeal.

In all honesty, Hairspray, Avenue Q, Chicago, or maybe even Spring Awakening. All of them have been on the border line.

I don't pay attention to weekly numbers and attendence and such, but Spamalot has been doing a lot of 'stunt' casting recently, and I wouldn't be totally surprised if it didn't last to 2009. As soon as Clay left they brought in Stephen & Drew...just a top of the head assumption it's not at it's best.

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I know someone said that they hate the negative aspect of talking about what shows are going to close next. I can understand that. But, what's the alternative? Pretending that the theatre isn't a business but rather a popularity contest? We all here know that theatre is a business and that means shows closing because they aren't making money. Because that is a truth of the matter there is no use getting upset when someone decideds to make a thread talking about a show closing or to ask what show is going to close next. And, before anyone jumps down my throat about how I am saying this because I love to see a show do bad business and to se it close. I don't. I am just a realist who realizes that this is part of the business of Broadway.

That being said, I don't think Avenue Q has much life left in it. Whereas Phantom has LOADS of time left in it. I doubt that they are going to have to resort to stunt casting in any manor. I know the original production of Les Miserables did some stunt casting to stay open but that doesn't seem like something Phantom would do or would need to do. As for Anne Hathaway being in the show as philly03 suggested. She was chosen as a movie star with an operatic voice to do the move version of the show. Makes sense that a movie star would do a movie. I don't think Phantom is ever going to have to resort to stunt casting. Because by the time it gets that bad for the show they could still close having been the longest running show on Broadway and making it hard for any other musical to beat them in that record.

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Avenue Q is my guess to be gone by the end of the year.

Phantom has YEARS left, and isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It'll certainly be around for its 25th anniversary, and possibly even its 30th.

Chicago has a year or two left, as does Hairspray.

Spring Awakening's grosses have dipped, but I don't believe they've had a week where they've lost money. Their nut is very low. It's not going anywhere just yet.

Updated On: 6/28/08 at 11:42 AM

I think avenue q is not going to make it to next year.

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I have to disagree, I think Hairspray will be around for a long time.

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Updated On: 5/3/09 at 07:09 PM

PHANTOM doesn't need stunt casting, no one who goes cares who's on it, they are going for THE SHOW ! I am positive now, it's gonna play FOR EVER !
I adore AVENUE Q, but I am worried.
And I am honestly asking, when is something called a Long Running Show ? Because, I have to say, that I wouldn't think of SPRING AWAKENING or SPAMALOT, if I heard the term, but I saw them mentioned !

Updated On: 6/28/08 at 09:27 PM

I love all these people who want Phantom to close because they didn't like it. Im sure you'd feel differently if you had invested in the show and were receiving a huge check every month.