Why does everyone seem to think that the BEST MUSICAL race is between JB & TDC?

I keep coming across these articles etc that are stressing the fact that this years Best Musical race is unpredictably between THE DROWSY CHAPERONE and JERSEY BOYS. I think everyone is dismissing THE COLOR PURPLE and I don't know why. I havent seen DROWSY yet but I saw both JERSEY and TCP and thought they were just about equally well-done but when all said and done, I probably enjoyed TCP a little bit more than JERSEY. TCP is a huge hit (bigger than DROWSY and just as big as JERSEY), it features a very well-done, electic score, a rich and original book, a phenomenally talented cast, great designs, and a very good directorial debut. And it has Oprah; a BIG plus. I don't see why everyone is dismissing this show as a contender for the big prize this year. I think TCP has more potential than we are giving it credit for.

Any ideas/opinions/comments etc?

I am going to go ahead and say that TCP will win for Best musical based solely on Oprah's name, and the inspirational, redemptive theme of the show. but really for Oprah.



thread jack- did anyone see the oprah parody on SNL last night? priceless!!!!

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Oprah refused the offer to host the tony's. And if she did it the ratings for the tonys would go way up. But since shes not they tony voters really dont care about her.

I *wish* TCP would win. I don't know if I saw a special performance or what, but I thought it was clearly the best show of the season. *shrug*

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Why do people think Oprah hosting the show would help TCP?
If Mickey Mouse hosted would TARZAN have gotten more noms?

I'm on the TCP bandwagon and I've been saying that since March when I got to see the show. There's something about the performances that I think bring up what is a good (not great by any means but certainly not bad)book to an outstanding level through honest interpretations of the characters. I was not at all surprised at Brandon Victor Dixon's nom and I feel that the other three acting noms were just as well deserved.

Technically speaking it is visually appealing and executed very well. And like wickedrentq said, maybe I just happened to be there a night that the atmosphere was different in the show and I saw something people on the boards didn't...but regardless I am rooting for it at the Tony's.

Cheers,

Christopher

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The thing is, TCP has really gotten to the point where it doesn't need to win Tonys to be successful. It's already among the three top grossing shows on Broadway on a weekly basis and I would hazard to say that the vast majority of the people who are nearly selling out the enormous Broadway Theatre nightly could care less about the Tony Awards and won't be tuning in on the 11th. Word of mouth is fantastic and is reaching far and wide around the country and they're coming in by the busload and whether or not Felicia Fields wins the Featured Actress Tony is completely irrelevant to the show's future.

They should have a nice performance on the awards show which will give them a slight little boost at the box office (which they don't even need) and even if they go home empty handed, the show is still going to run for a few years.

Jersey Boys also doesn't NEED Tonys to succeed, though it'll likely take home a few and if it gets Best Musical, it's tour will be even bigger than it already promises to be.

Drowsy is the show that probably NEEDS a good showing at the Tonys in order for long term success. It's doing OK at the box office, but it's having trouble filling up that barn of a theatre, the Marquis (there are rumors that it may try to move to a smaller house after the Tonys, which would be very smart). It doesn't have any real stars, a title that leaves people scrathing their heads, and a TERRIBLE marketing campaign. I think word-of-mouth has been solid (though it's too early to be able to really measure that). Winning the Tony would likely guarantee it a run of at least a couple of years (though it could end like MILLIE and run a couple of years and still not recoup). Losing it could really hurt it. It's all speculation right now, but it'll be interesting to see where its box numbers are at in about a month or two, after the Tonys air, win or lose. If attendance starts hitting the 90s, it'll probably be around for a while. If its still in the 70s and low 80s, it's going to be a struggle.

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Everyone seems to think that the race is between TDC and JB because it IS.

And Margo, that's very true about TDC needing the Tony more than the others, but that obviously isn't going to effect the voters (Spamalot, much?).

It would probably be better off at a 1000 to 1100 seat theatre, (rather than the 1600 seat Marquis). There will a few of them to choose from in the next several months.

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Have not seen "JB".... Have seen "TDC" 3 times so far, and its really growing on me, but I would LOVE to see "TCP" win !!!

And please..... let LaChanze win !!!