The ONLY awards that have ever been shown to have more than a marginal effect on the box office are Best Musical, Best Play (sometimes -- several Best Plays have closed within months of winning) and occasionally Best Revival. People from out of town don't know or care who Ebersole is and her winning will have a negligible impact on the box office (although a kickass performance by her on the Tonys could help).
But all that may be moot. The bigger issue is that the Tonys don't happen until 9 months after the show starts previews -- how will they survive that long? How will it make it through February and March when the tourists aren't here and even hit shows have been known to struggle? This is a very eccentric, dark, moody and strange show to try to market and explain to the out of town tourist market which is most of the audience for shows now. I can just hear it now: "A mother and daughter sit around a filthy condemned house bickering with one another over nothing? And it's a musical? And it didn't even get good reviews? Why would I want to pay $110 for that?"
And remember the reviews were very mixed, so unless they do a complete fundamental overhaul of the book (which the creative team has been highly resistant to), they can't even rely on a slate of raves to overcome the odd subject matter (Brantley basically loved Ebersole and Wilson and was very lukewarm or negative about almost everything else and unfortunately he's the only critic that has any real power).
The show is based on a cult movie that 95% of America has never seen or heard of (though those who have love it, including myself). With no stars, a heretofore unknown creative team and a weird and difficult to market plot, can this make it past March? I wish the show no ill will and hope I'm wrong, but right now, I foresee attendance in the 40s and 50s most weeks. It's sort of like WELL (which at least had the advantage of rave reviews, but was also difficult to market and hovered in the 30s for most of its short run) or SOUVENIR (another off-Broadway transfer of a show about an eccentric which featured an acclaimed star turn by a nonstar in the leading role -- it rarely cracked 40% and closed after just a couple of months).
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
Updated On: 6/26/06 at 11:01 PM
), the show will probably do fine and close quietly after making a respectful profit. Sorry for such a long response. 
