Will Grey Gardens Do Well On Broadway?

[RustyRocketteBoy]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:28pm

I dont know much about this show, but from what i know it seems like its not the most commercial show coming to Broadway...Do you think mainstreem audiences will wanna see this?

[All_For_Laura]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:32pm

Yes and No. I think it will be successful to an extent. It does not appeal to everyone, but it is a show that will find an audience and will appeal to many.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:34pm

I think it could run for a good year or so. Ebersole is bound to get raves again, and that will keep the show going until the Tony's. Her certain win will propel the show into the fall. When she decides to leave, however, I doubt they'd attempt to replace her.

[RustyRocketteBoy]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:40pm

Updated On: 6/26/06 at 08:40 PM

[musicman89]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:52pm

The show received mixed reviews, with raves for Ebersole. She will most likely get the most praise from the critics, even perhaps a Tony win.

The creative team needs to fix a lot of structural elements in the show's plotting and coherence. Act I and Act II are so fundamentally different and specifically Act I contains dramatic filler that serves no overarching purpose.

For commercial Broadway, it is going to struggle without great reviews (which it can get, if it can fix some of the aforementioned problems). It is good that it is in one of the smaller Broadway houses (about 950 seats, I believe). A good marketing campaign will certainly help the show as well.

[Tiny-Toon]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 8:57pm

Great reviews do not always translate into Great ticket sales.. Both WELL and SOUVENIR were big hits Off-Broadway but floped on Broadway and lost a lot of money.

Updated On: 6/26/06 at 08:57 PM

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 9:59pm

This is actually a really tough question...will Ebersole win the Tony? I can say without a moment of thought, yes. Will that help the show? Of course. Will the show recieve raves? Probably only for Ebersole. It's an ambitious piece that isn't really what people are going for on stage nowadays (see Wicked, Jersey Boys, Drowsy Chaperone, Tarzan, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King, Mamma Mia!, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Spamalot, Avenue Q, Hairspray etc etc etc all of which are HUGE, HUGE hits but are not nearly as ambitious as Grey Gardens). We can also see other shows like The Light in the Piazza (an ambitious show that has seen the same kind of critical notices that Grey Gardens most likely will). It won quite a few Tonys, was a much bigger hit than most expected (while not exactly becoming the phenomenon shows like Wicked and The Lion King have) and now, it has lost it's buzz for some reason or another and is going downhill gross-wise. I think we will see the same kind of reaction for Grey Gardens. It will probably open with a 70 percentile attendance rate which will then increase to high 80's/low 90's after Ebersole's Tony win (it's inevitable, we all know it...she has this award under her belt unless someone comes along and delivers an absolutely groundbreaking performance to rival hers) and then, it will probably decrease percentage wise to about 50-65% a year or so later. Unless they do some incredible stunt casting (Rosie O'Donnell? ), the show will probably do fine and close quietly after making a respectful profit. Sorry for such a long response.

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 11:01pm

The ONLY awards that have ever been shown to have more than a marginal effect on the box office are Best Musical, Best Play (sometimes -- several Best Plays have closed within months of winning) and occasionally Best Revival. People from out of town don't know or care who Ebersole is and her winning will have a negligible impact on the box office (although a kickass performance by her on the Tonys could help).

But all that may be moot. The bigger issue is that the Tonys don't happen until 9 months after the show starts previews -- how will they survive that long? How will it make it through February and March when the tourists aren't here and even hit shows have been known to struggle? This is a very eccentric, dark, moody and strange show to try to market and explain to the out of town tourist market which is most of the audience for shows now. I can just hear it now: "A mother and daughter sit around a filthy condemned house bickering with one another over nothing? And it's a musical? And it didn't even get good reviews? Why would I want to pay $110 for that?"

And remember the reviews were very mixed, so unless they do a complete fundamental overhaul of the book (which the creative team has been highly resistant to), they can't even rely on a slate of raves to overcome the odd subject matter (Brantley basically loved Ebersole and Wilson and was very lukewarm or negative about almost everything else and unfortunately he's the only critic that has any real power).

The show is based on a cult movie that 95% of America has never seen or heard of (though those who have love it, including myself). With no stars, a heretofore unknown creative team and a weird and difficult to market plot, can this make it past March? I wish the show no ill will and hope I'm wrong, but right now, I foresee attendance in the 40s and 50s most weeks. It's sort of like WELL (which at least had the advantage of rave reviews, but was also difficult to market and hovered in the 30s for most of its short run) or SOUVENIR (another off-Broadway transfer of a show about an eccentric which featured an acclaimed star turn by a nonstar in the leading role -- it rarely cracked 40% and closed after just a couple of months).

Updated On: 6/26/06 at 11:01 PM

[ThankstoPhantom]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 11:08pm

^Count me as one of the Grey Garden film lovers, Margo. :)

From your review of the show on your blog, I can definately see where they need to fix it. Maybe if the had the first act mingle in with the second as flashback moments it would be better? (if they had to keep them in.

[mathewbrock]

Posted: 6/26/06 at 11:10pm

I pretty much agree with Margo. (Margo, you always have top notch theatre insight - without being offensive. Love it!) Why do you think the writers are resistant to changes? Pride? They have to know they're dealing with touchy subject matter to force on most of their audience. Any more insight for us?

[courtnyj]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 12:23am

Sorry, a little off-topic but, Margo, Thankstophantom, would you recommend that we see the film before seeing the show? Would it inhance the show or detract from it?

[SueleenGay]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 12:36am

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 12:39am

About Ebersole winning the Tony, even if it was open till then, the Tonys are still a year away...there's still a chance for other actresses to deliver a groundbreaking performance and snag Best Actress.

[musicman89]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 1:48am

Ebersole winning Best Actress is not going to have a huge box office increase, as Margo pointed out. It could very well play out similar to Maria Friedman in THE WOMAN IN WHITE. If GREY GARDENS does not make it through the tough months, which it very well may not do, and closes before Tony time, some voters may never have had the chance to see her performance.

In addition, it seems that the award for Best Actress over the past couple of years tends to favor young women that appeal to teenagers. Foster, Winokur, Menzel, and LaChanze are all realtively younger women who have a strong teen fanbase or at least a leading role in a teen-oriented show, Clark being an exception. Perhaps since Ebersole already has an award, the voters may want to award somewhat up and coming stars such as Stephanie J. Block in THE PIRATE QUEEN or Ashley Brown in MARY POPPINS if they deliver stunning performances.

It is all too early to tell in regards to the run of GREY GARDENS and the Tonys.

[mathewbrock]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 2:06am

I say see the movie before the show. You need to have a point of reference with this one and you definitely will appreciate Ebersole's performance 110 times more if you've seen the woman that she is not only playing, but channelling. Definitely see the film first.

[MasterLcZ]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 7:46am

Margo, where did you hear that the creative team is resistant to making changes? I'm one of the few people I know that loves the show (flaws and all) as it is, but I agree that the show needs some major re-writing. As it is, there's barely a story. The implied rivalry and tension between the Edies is never quite spelled out, and one never learns exactly how they both descended into a sort of society baglady madness.

I find the saga impossibly sad. After her re-appearance as a "downtown darling" in the mid-1970s, "Little Edie" never really became an engaged member of society. She died alone few years ago in Florida and her body was not found for several days.

[April Saul]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 8:46am

Nope! I think it will join a long list of successful off-Broadway shows that can't fill bigger houses because they are too off-center. Christine was wonderful but the show was pretty much of a mess, and if more accomplished productions like Caroline, or Change and Well can't really cut it, I don't think this will do any better. Why does everybody think they have to transfer to Broadway anyway?? I was at Spring Awakening on Sunday, which was amazing, and talked to cast members who were dreaming of transferring to the Booth or Helen Hayes, and I felt like saying, "Hey maybe you guys are too good for Broadway!"

[bwayondabrain]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 9:06am

i sure hope it does well! i want to see it very badly!
but can you rent the movie anywhere, or is it a pretty rare movie to find?

[Jimmcf]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 9:14am

Grey Gardens

[dirty rotten guy]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 9:54am

I think it will find a group of very devoted fans, although I doubt it will ever play to sell out audiences. I also think if they make some changes, they could come out with some pretty good reviews, which would certainly help sell tickets. It strikes me as a show similar to Sweeney in the respect that it seems more suited for winter audiences and could thrive in that climate.

Keeping fingers crossed!

[stevenycguy]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 12:54pm

I saw it and didn't like it much at all. A few pleasant songs, but extremely long - it was close to 3 hours! I found myself looking at my watch more than a few times, and found the storyline very boring and overlong to be honest. Definitely not a show I'd recommend. But I must say, at the performance I saw, the audience went wild - screaming like crazy and a standing ovation, at the top of Act 2 when Christine came out dressed like an older lady. It seemed like a weird "cult" hit - I kept thinking, why are these people in the audience going crazy over the show and I think it's sooo boring? I don't think mainstream America would like this show at all. But it seems to have a cult following among many New Yorkers. I never thought Bridge and Tunnel would run for more than 2 weeks on Broadway, but I was wrong. Maybe I'll be wrong about Grey Gardens too.

[uncageg]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 1:01pm

Even though I have not seen the show yet, I agree with Mathewbrock that you would want to see the documentary before seeing the show. I watched it 2 months ago and glad I did. It will prepare me for the musical, which I can't wait to see. If Ms. Ebersole really does play the part as well as I have heard, this ought to be pretty good!

[WheelsofaDream]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 1:35pm

I really don't think it has much of a chance, although I hate to say it. I just don't see how they could fix the book so much to make it interesting and memorable without totally changing the whole show. I mean, I love musical theatre, and even I must admit that it's a so-so musical elevated by great performances.

Plus since the Broadway run comes so close to the end of the Playwrights Horizons run (6ish months), I don't think very many people will go see it again if they did already. This has got to hurt them. If they waited until March or April to open, they would probably get a lot more repeat business, and the show would be able to perform on the Tonys for sure.

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 1:39pm

I think I'm going to NYC in December and I would love to see this show. However, I'm a little weary because I'm not sure if it's something I'd enjoy seeing. Since I don't get to NYC but once every year, I'm a little picky about the shows I see. I want to listen to the cast recording first, but I don't want to ruin the show for myself. I think I'll just watch the movie. I hope this show does well. However, I wouldn't give Ebersole the Tony just yet. Look at Pattie Lupone. Everyone said she had the Tony in the bag, but then the upset came. So we'll see.

[AshleyBrownFan123]

Posted: 6/27/06 at 1:40pm

"In addition, it seems that the award for Best Actress over the past couple of years tends to favor young women that appeal to teenagers. Foster, Winokur, Menzel, and LaChanze are all realtively younger women who have a strong teen fanbase or at least a leading role in a teen-oriented show, Clark being an exception. Perhaps since Ebersole already has an award, the voters may want to award somewhat up and coming stars such as Stephanie J. Block in THE PIRATE QUEEN or Ashley Brown in MARY POPPINS if they deliver stunning performances."

Well said musicman891


Ashley Brown for 2007!