which shows close before/right after the tony awards?

[massofmen]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 7:52pm

There are way too many shows opening and a few will close after not getting any nominations, some will close right after the tonys when they don't win and more will of course close on labor day. here are my predictions:

Close before the tony's
Bandstand (why did the producers bring this thing in. No word of mouth, the advance must be close to zero)

Amalie (bad word of mouth from LA, Phillippa soo is not a name to sell tix on and does anyone really care about this show?)

 in transit (can anyone believe its made it this long?)

DEH will win the tony.  (Come from away, Groundhog day, Comet will be nominated possibly War paint as well for the 5th slot)

a little Before labor day or right after the tonys:

Groundhog day (the show has a huge capitalization ((16.5 million)) and high running costs, if it doesn't win the tony its going to have a tough time selling based on a niche movie and no stars ((ben platt will beat out andy for the tony)). Still might make it to labor day but wont run past that. 

War Paint (does anyone really think this is going to sell?)

Anastasia. (too many kids musicals)

 After or right on Labor day:
Kinky boots (its done)
Come from away (will get lost in all these new musicals)
Comet (once Groban leaves it will sadly not sell well)
A bronx tale (competition will slow down its sales)

Just My thoughts. I know its a drab topic but the economics of this season really interest me with a whole slew of new works coming in. Not to mention, Sunset Blvd, Miss saigon, Hello Dolly, Charlie and the Choc factory, sunday in the park, etc taking tix away as well. its going to be interesting (yes I know Sunset is limited so it might not take tix away in the summer unless it extends which it might if it wins for best revival)



 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:09pm

Every year, there's always some shows that end up closing before the Tonys after failing to receive some major nominations such as American Psycho, The Bridges of Madison County, Disaster!, Doctor Zhivago, Jekyll & Hyde, Leap of Faith, Lestat, Little Women, Tuck Everlasting, etc.

Then there are shows that quickly close after failing to receive any major wins nor boost from performing on the Tonys such as After Midnight, Bright Star, Cry-Baby, Gigi, Godspell, Guys & Dolls, Jesus Christ Superstar, The Visit, etc.

Updated On: 2/2/17 at 08:09 PM

[massofmen]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:12pm

...right. isn't that what I said in the original post?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:17pm

massofmen said: "Anastasia. (too many kids musicals)"

Having seen a bootleg of Anastasia when it was out-of-town, I'd say it's much more mature than the animated film, hardly categorizing it as a 'family show'.

[massofmen]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:20pm

well thats even worse. I don't think Anastasia screams "date night". 

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:26pm

/ Updated On: 10/21/20 at 08:26 PM

[Whateverjsays]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:37pm

It should be a crime that In Transit has been open longer than American Psycho was. 

[massofmen]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:45pm

all those early to mid 20's people with 120.00 to spare to buy a bway tix. 

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:48pm

/ Updated On: 10/21/20 at 08:48 PM

[Whateverjsays]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:50pm

aaaaaa15 said: "massofmen said: "all those early to mid 20's people with 120.00 to spare to buy a bway tix."

Yes, they exist. I'm one of them. 

 

"

Me too. I have tickets to most of the shows opening this spring and I'm most excited for Anastasia 

[curel1]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:51pm

massofmen said: "all those early to mid 20's people with 120.00 to spare to buy a bway tix. 

 

"

lol it's gonna do fine

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:52pm

/ Updated On: 10/21/20 at 08:52 PM

[somechrysanthemumtea]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:52pm

When I last checked tickets for Amelie, I was surprised to see that a lot of the performances I clicked on were pretty well sold. I wouldn't underestimate her name recognition with the large Hamilton fanbase (who have a lot of expendable income). 

I think that Bandstand is currently the most likely to flop. War Paint also might just not be able to make economic sense at the Nederlander (though I feel like the star power of its two leads will keep it going for a few months). 

 

[Whateverjsays]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:54pm

somechrysanthemumtea said: "When I last checked tickets for Amelie, I was surprised to see that a lot of the performances I clicked on were pretty well sold. I wouldn't underestimate her name recognition with the large Hamilton fanbase (who have a lot of expendable income). 

I think that Bandstand is currently the most likely to flop. War Paint also might just not be able to make economic sense at the Nederlander (though I feel like the star power of its two leads will keep it going for a few months). 

 

 

"

I think the heavy discount that Amelie has could be helping with ticket sales.  War Paint needs to do a lot more promo and should change the artwork they have currently

[MarkBearSF]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 8:59pm

In general, I mostly agree with your conclusions with a few quibbles. And, as anyone who has followed past seasons knows, a show can become a big hit "out of nowhere." 

- I think that the staging and the show itself will keep The Great Comet running, although not necessarily recouping. 

- I think "Come From Away" could very well become one of those sleeper hits, based upon the out-and-out enthusiasm I've consistently heard from those who have seen it thus far. Still it's a small show in a crowded season - and how NY reacts to this 9/11 show is anyone's guess. But I wouldn't count it out.

- A Bronx Tale has been quietly packing 'em in and making money for months now, even during slow weeks. It's not on the radar for many of us, but it could be a long-running replacement for the Jersey Boys crowd.

I expect War Paint will be one of those stories that us show queens tell for years, but will not last long on Broadway. I'm also not especially enthusiastic about Dolly beyond 6 months out or so. (But who knows?)

Updated On: 2/2/17 at 08:59 PM

[Emmaloucbway]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 11:51pm

Also The Great Comet's lasting power depends on who they get to replace Groban. It could be another "name" for Pierre. 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 2/2/17 at 11:56pm

Unless Groundhog Day intensifies their marketing, it's not looking too good for them either. 

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 12:02am

Pierre isn't that hard a part to cast with a star- if the producers are smart (and that isn't necessarily the case) they should already be looking for someone to do it. 

I know Come from Away has gotten nice reviews elsewhere, but I will be very surprised if it does well. Reviews aside, it's a new musical with no stars, a godawful title, and a plot description that requires you to mention 9/11 at some point. It's not impossible that it does well, but I think people are really overstating its potential as a commercial production. 

[@z5]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 12:09am

I do think that Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has good advance sales and will do very well...it'll be more than just a "kids show" I'm 22 and very excited to see it. 

I also have high interest in Amelie, even though I have never seen the movie.

Groundhog Day is the one I probably have the least interest in of the opening shows in the next few months. 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 12:23am

wonderfulwizard11 said: "Pierre isn't that hard a part to cast with a star- if the producers are smart (and that isn't necessarily the case) they should already be looking for someone to do it. 

I know Come from Away has gotten nice reviews elsewhere, but I will be very surprised if it does well. Reviews aside, it's a new musical with no stars, a godawful title, and a plot description that requires you to mention 9/11 at some point. It's not impossible that it does well, but I think people are really overstating its potential as a commercial production. 

 

"

You can say the same things about Dear Evan Hansen or Hamilton. While they don't mention specifically 9/11, they still both deal with difficult subject matters.

 

Updated On: 2/3/17 at 12:23 AM

[Wick3]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 12:26am

I agree with wonderful wizard on Come from Away. I was here in NYC on 9/11 and would prefer not to watch a musical about that event (I've never been to the 9/11 museum either.) None of my friends who were downtown with me that day are interested in watching the show either.

I think Anastasia will stick. Even people in their 30s (like me) remember watching it in the 90s and enjoyed the music. Personally I wouldn't buy full-price tickets and am waiting for it to get to TKTS or I'll do rush for it. I haven't decided yet.

Friends who are visiting me this summer all want to see Amelie mainly because they loved the movie. I plan on watching Amelie but have no desire to pay full price for it given what I've read about it thus far. I have a feeling it will be on TKTS this summer as well. 

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 12:59am

The point is not "difficult subject matter", the point is that it's about 9/11, which was not that long ago and for many folks in New York and in the tri-state area, it's still a vivid memory. Now, I know the show isn't actually about 9/11, but when you describe the show you have to bring it up, and I don't know how the show will be seen as anything other than the 9/11 musical- and the title certainly doesn't help. Again, it could succeed despite of that, but it does not help its chances. 

[bct14972]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 1:05am

I'm sure some roducers are bringing in some of these shows to legitimize the properties for licensing purposes. Not all of them anticipate making money, but for shows like 'Bandstand', which as we know has been kicking round for a few years, I'm sure the producers at least see commercial appeal for the regional/community theatre market. 

[MarkBearSF]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 1:20am

There's truly no way to tell.

It's equally likely that the positive message and tone of "Come From Away" may strike a chord with New Yorkers and could be a cathartic or healing moment for many. Also the story of humanity reaching out to comfort and support others could be a message that resonates this spring. 

Having lived through the plague years in San Francisco, I resisted seeing the revival of Normal Heart a few years ago. And others of my age urged me to see it, so I got tickets. I was in the front row. It was one of the most powerful experiences in my life.

Also, not AT ALL to diminish the experiences of those in the city on that day, but a lot of people have moved to NY in the past 15-16 years. Perhaps, like those who were not alive during the early AIDS years learned a lot about the events and the emotions of that time at "The Normal Heart," there's a new generation eager to hear the story of how individuals bonded together to help after 9/11.

Who knows?

Updated On: 2/3/17 at 01:20 AM

[broadwayguy91]

Posted: 2/3/17 at 3:24am

Call_me_jorge said: "wonderfulwizard11 said: "Pierre isn't that hard a part to cast with a star- if the producers are smart (and that isn't necessarily the case) they should already be looking for someone to do it. 

I know Come from Away has gotten nice reviews elsewhere, but I will be very surprised if it does well. Reviews aside, it's a new musical with no stars, a godawful title, and a plot description that requires you to mention 9/11 at some point. It's not impossible that it does well, but I think people are really overstating its potential as a commercial production. 

 

"

You can say the same things about Dear Evan Hansen or Hamilton. While they don't mention specifically 9/11, they still both deal with difficult subject matters.

 

 

"

DEH has a much broader appeal and relevant subject matter, a social media savvy marketing team and lead star, who appeared in two teenage/young adult centric relatively modest box office performing movies (the first Pitch Perfect is on its way to becoming something of a cult classic) . also struck gold with Pasek and Paul being nominated for Oscars and having won Golden Globes.

 

Come From Away has noble intentions but will tank because there won't be enough of a tourist crowd to sustain it. 

 

I agree with the poster above who said most of these producers know that the shows won't have any broad market appeal and are likely financial flops; they are looking forward to the eventual licensing . look at Tuck Everlasting ; it'll probably be on the to-do list of many high schools/ community theatres in years to come; however mind numbingly boring that score and how inane the book is (book of the musical that is; not dissing the source material). This includes Anastasia btw (I can already imagine the pre teen girls salivating of performing Journey to the Past as Anya in an eventual HS production) - although I hope, believe and am convinced that it will do modestly well - probably have a run similar to 2013 R&H Cinderella, even if it doesn't recoup.

Updated On: 2/3/17 at 03:24 AM