SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK is fighting, but ARGO has the momentum. Another telling will be the WGAs on Feb 17 (a week before the Oscars). If SLP takes the WGA, it may have a better chance. Though even if that does happen, I think ARGO still takes Picture and SLP may get a screenplay Oscar instead.
How interesting (and wonderful!) it is that no one film is hogging all of the award categories. It's a very diverse year. Perhaps this year more than ever, a high number of films will be able to bill itself as an "Oscar-winning movie."
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle