One month from today...

Oh please. Check your pants, your naiveté is showing. :P

Remember when Bush won the first time, and no one could work out for the longest time if he'd actually won or not? Remember how, for the last eight years, we've all been talking and complaining about him? Things may calm down a little, but they're definitely not going away.

And - heaven forbid - McCain still might win. >_<

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Yes, I do believe that Obama will win miss p. And I think it will be a landslide.

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If McPalin wins all bets are off, of course.

So, I'm curious now:
Do you guys really think in your heart of hearts that Obama won't win?
I'm not talking about not counting chickens before they hatch, I'm not saying let down the gaurd, I'm talking about what you really think.

He's opening significant leads all over the place. Michigan has been conceeded, even my state (VA) looks like it's going to vote democratic for the first time in 40 years.

I think there is no overcoming the Bush stigma.

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Chicken Little much, Krissy?

No, I just have an odd sense of humor.

Yea, I guess anything can happen.

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The problem is, I'm in England. I can't see as much of your politics as I would like, and it's all filtered through the internet. The news sites give it a cursory description before moving on to Peter Mandelson's "triumphant" return to government and the resignation of Sir Ian Blair, and the opinion sites are... well, it's here, and LiveJournal, and I've found that my friends and fellow theatre fans are a delightfully open-minded and liberal bunch. So it sounds like Obama has an excellent chance.

But you guys... you do live in a country that's had George W. Bush as your president for the last eight years. You might, as a nation, be fed up of Republican nonsense by now and desperate for a sane and sensible Democrat to take power. But then, enough of your guys voted that Republican into power in the first (and second!) place.

Right now, from this side of the pond, we'd like Obama to win, but it does feel like it has the potential to go either way. I'm trying to maintain optimism, but when it comes to politics, I simply don't have that much any more. Blame the Labour party. And David Cameron.

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Updated On: 10/4/08 at 01:50 PM

While all the momentum is with Obama right now, in my opinion there are a couple of things that could swing this back to McCain. One would be a terrorist/national security incident. The other would be a major smear campaign. While the former is unlikely, the latter is almost a certainty.

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Palin would end up as a political analyst on Fox. She can finally put that journalism degree that it took her 6 schools to get to good use.

Both of which are better jobs than Vice President.

The polls do not take into account people who do not own land line telephones. Who operates mainly off of cell phones? Younger people, who overwhelmingly will vote Democratic, or at the very least not vote Republican. Couple that fact with the tremendous effort the Democrats and other organizations have put into increasing voter registration makes all of these polls are totally irrelevant.

It doesn't render them irrelevant, but it is a factor that needs to be considered. One of my favorite websites for this election has been www.fivethirtyeight.com, and they tend to think that the cell phone factor should give Obama about a +2% nationally. However, it's not that simple, since non-landline folks vary from state to state, so you can't just give Obama a +2% in every state. They did seem to imply that Obama seemed to overperform in states that have a significant cell phone only population. You are correct in stating that voter registration, plus the get out the vote campaign (aka ground game) is another wild card. Again, I strongly recommed www.fivethirtyeight.com for insight to polling.

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Palin would end up as a political analyst on Fox.

After Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin one of her "gotcha" questions, what newspapers and magazines she reads, one of her answers was "All of them. Any of them that have been in front of me all these years.." Keith Olbermann made a funny joke this week about how if the election doesn't work out for her, she'll have a job at Fox News.