One month from today...

[tazber]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:06pm

...it will all be over.

Obama will win
No more Sarah Palin to make fun of
Biden will slip into the background as (most) VPs do
The GOP will start to revise their strategy for the mid-term elections

It feels like this thing has dragged on forever.

[Weez]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:25pm

Oh please. Check your pants, your naiveté is showing. :P

Remember when Bush won the first time, and no one could work out for the longest time if he'd actually won or not? Remember how, for the last eight years, we've all been talking and complaining about him? Things may calm down a little, but they're definitely not going away.

And - heaven forbid - McCain still might win. >_<

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:26pm

Do you really believe this, Taz?

I mean the part about there being no more Sarah Palin to make fun of? I kinda think some things last forever.

[tazber]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:28pm

Yes, I do believe that Obama will win miss p. And I think it will be a landslide.

[KrissySim]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:28pm

On the other hand, if McCain/Palin win, it will be the biggest mock-election in American history. We will then welcome the Unites States into the exclusive club of one of the world's largest Third World countries and totalitarian states.

[tazber]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:33pm

If McPalin wins all bets are off, of course.

So, I'm curious now:
Do you guys really think in your heart of hearts that Obama won't win?
I'm not talking about not counting chickens before they hatch, I'm not saying let down the gaurd, I'm talking about what you really think.

He's opening significant leads all over the place. Michigan has been conceeded, even my state (VA) looks like it's going to vote democratic for the first time in 40 years.

I think there is no overcoming the Bush stigma.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:33pm

Chicken Little much, Krissy?

I, for one, don't think it's over yet. The tide may change yet again.

[KrissySim]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:36pm

Chicken Little much, Krissy?

No, I just have an odd sense of humor.

[verynewyorkcurious]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:42pm

I look at the polls even with Obama leading by 7 points, this race is still too close, especially when we have 31 more days to go. Don't get your hopes up yet. There is a chance you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

[tazber]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:44pm

Yea, I guess anything can happen.

[Q]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:49pm

All I know is that's how I felt four years ago, and . . . well, we all know what happened. I'm still not over THAT, nor do I understand.

And, here we are again.

[Weez]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:50pm

The problem is, I'm in England. I can't see as much of your politics as I would like, and it's all filtered through the internet. The news sites give it a cursory description before moving on to Peter Mandelson's "triumphant" return to government and the resignation of Sir Ian Blair, and the opinion sites are... well, it's here, and LiveJournal, and I've found that my friends and fellow theatre fans are a delightfully open-minded and liberal bunch. So it sounds like Obama has an excellent chance.

But you guys... you do live in a country that's had George W. Bush as your president for the last eight years. You might, as a nation, be fed up of Republican nonsense by now and desperate for a sane and sensible Democrat to take power. But then, enough of your guys voted that Republican into power in the first (and second!) place.

Right now, from this side of the pond, we'd like Obama to win, but it does feel like it has the potential to go either way. I'm trying to maintain optimism, but when it comes to politics, I simply don't have that much any more. Blame the Labour party. And David Cameron.

Updated On: 10/4/08 at 01:50 PM

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 1:50pm

TAZ, please reread my post. You missed my point!

[madbrian]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:04pm

While all the momentum is with Obama right now, in my opinion there are a couple of things that could swing this back to McCain. One would be a terrorist/national security incident. The other would be a major smear campaign. While the former is unlikely, the latter is almost a certainty.

[Jane2]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:07pm

"Check your pants, your naiveté is showing"

LOL Weez!!

Sorry Taz, she's funny.

[supportivemom]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:16pm

Palin would end up as a political analyst on Fox. She can finally put that journalism degree that it took her 6 schools to get to good use.

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:18pm

Really, S-mom? I thought she would become the new co-host of Dancing with the Stars!

[JohnBoy2]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:37pm

Both of which are better jobs than Vice President.

[supportivemom]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 2:58pm

Good one Miss P. I think Palin is loving this spotlight. I'm sure her children love all the neglect as well! (and before anyone crucifies me, I have 2 kids and I work. There were so many times when I couldn't be there for them because of business trips, working at night, ...I was not even close to the national spotlight and my business obligations were few). Was she ever the anchor at her news station or was she always the sports reader?

[frogs_fan85]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:07pm

The polls do not take into account people who do not own land line telephones. Who operates mainly off of cell phones? Younger people, who overwhelmingly will vote Democratic, or at the very least not vote Republican. Couple that fact with the tremendous effort the Democrats and other organizations have put into increasing voter registration makes all of these polls are totally irrelevant.

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:14pm

I have very firm opinions about this election, but I am not broadcasting them because -- although I am not a suspicious person -- I don't want to be cocky and over-confident and "jinx" anything (again, not in the "true" sense of the word.)

Everyone here knows where I stand with the candidates, but I have vowed NOT to gloat...until after the election.

(But, Taz, I'm happy to tell you what I think off-line.)

(Oh, and S-mom, I can't imagine what her kids must be going through, especially Bristol. I feel extremely sorry for her, most of all. And I mean that in the kindest, most compassionate way.)

[madbrian]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:19pm

It doesn't render them irrelevant, but it is a factor that needs to be considered. One of my favorite websites for this election has been www.fivethirtyeight.com, and they tend to think that the cell phone factor should give Obama about a +2% nationally. However, it's not that simple, since non-landline folks vary from state to state, so you can't just give Obama a +2% in every state. They did seem to imply that Obama seemed to overperform in states that have a significant cell phone only population. You are correct in stating that voter registration, plus the get out the vote campaign (aka ground game) is another wild card. Again, I strongly recommed www.fivethirtyeight.com for insight to polling.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:30pm

Obama/Biden will win with at least 325 electoral votes. Sarah Palin will instantly be the front runner for the Republican nomination in 2012.

Whther she can hold on to that for 3 years I do not know; no one can predict how Republicans "think."

[verynewyorkcurious]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:33pm

Palin would end up as a political analyst on Fox.

After Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin one of her "gotcha" questions, what newspapers and magazines she reads, one of her answers was "All of them. Any of them that have been in front of me all these years.." Keith Olbermann made a funny joke this week about how if the election doesn't work out for her, she'll have a job at Fox News.

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/4/08 at 3:36pm

This was the best thing that could ever have happened to Sarah Palin's career. She's going to sign a book deal, make guest appearances and be a "celebrity." That NEVER would have happened if she'd only been the Governor of Alaska.

Frankly, I see her as Ado Annie in the next Broadway revival of OKLAHOMA!