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#51

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 3:49pm

Watching McCarthy in Bridesmaids all I could keep thinking was that I know this woman, I grew up with women like her (and precisely in that part of the country), McCarthy knows exactly who this woman is, celebrates her to the core of her very being, and, almost but not quite secondarily to all of that, is making me and just about everybody else in the theater fall out of our chairs with laughter.

#52

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 3:54pm

I actually think Streep is campaigning for Davis to win. It's almost blatant! Which, of course, makes me love her more.

As for Hugo, I was actually embarrassed at how self-serving the film was for Scorcese. 'LOOK! FILM PRESERVATION IS IMPORTANT. I'M IMPORTANT!!! A CREEPY AUTOMATON THAT RIVALS THE POLTERGIEST CLOWN DOLL IN ITS TERRIFYING VISAGE IS IMPORTANT!!!!'

Jesus Henry Christ, Martin, did you throw your back out by patting it so hard???

#53

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 3:58pm

See, I didnt get all of that Henrik. I laughed a few times, and thought the speech to Wiig's character towards the end was the best part of her performance, but I have no idea what was at her core and I definitely stayed in my chair.

"Carson has combined his passion for helping children with his love for one of Cincinnati's favorite past times - cornhole - to create a unique and exciting event perfect for a corporate outing, entertaining clients or family fun."

"In Oz, the verb is douchifizzation." PRS

#54

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:03pm

Gotcha, Doodle. I don't think The Help is a great film, although I certainly enjoyed it and respect it for what it was (an entertaining pop movie with social value that, surprisingly, didn't insult my intelligence), but I do think the performances, including the three almost certain to receive nominations tomorrow, are phenomenally good. I have to admit though that I'm a huge fan of Bridesmaids, which I think is one of the very best and funniest broad comedies in a very long time.

As to the level of challenge posed by the performances in question, we just disagree (as I said, it's all subjective). In any e;vent, I'm not quite sure that how much of a challenge a performance is really enters into my equation of whether a performance is oscarworthy; I tend to be more struck by how truthful, transporting and impactful a performance was and, therefore, how memorable (classic) I think it will become in time.

Earlier in the year, I didn't expect Bridesmaids and Midnight in Paris would be likely oscar contenders for best picture, but I can't say I'm unhappy about it.

#55

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:08pm

Robbie, I agree about Hugo. Who was this for? Children in an enchanting world (in 3-D!) yet also, an over two-hour movie on the importance of film history. He doesn't need to make a movie about preserving Georges Melies name and films, he has proven he can actually do it. I may know Melies was real, reviewers will know Melies was real, but does the average moviegoer know he was real rather than a fictional character?

#56

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:15pm

I would argue that pulling off a purely comedic role well, like McCarthy did in Bridesmaids, is equally as difficult as a dramatic role. And the Academy will almost always overlook the comedic role.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#57

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:16pm

Henrik, I didnt mean to imply that my only criteria was the role itself. Of course it's an acting award, but I just dont think these three roles were challenging enough for any actor. I think the characters of Minny and Celia were definite oscar roles when I read the novel, but many of the teeth seemed to be removed for the film for each character.

Just my opinion, of course. I havent seen enough films this year to fill any of the catergories, so perhaps these are three of the best performances and i'm just blowing smoke....wouldnt be the first time!

#58

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:20pm

The easiest way to understand the new rules is simply that a film must get at least 5% number 1 votes to be nominated.

It's totally silly. They increased it to 10 because The Dark Knight (and other "populist" movies) never got nominated.

And it worked as we saw such films as District 9 make the cut subsequently.

This was of course meant to increase ratings, which it never did.

Then everyone bitched that it was no longer "exclusive" enough.

So now they have this new statistical method which will again exclude any "popcorn" movies from making the cut.

So just go back to 5!

Anyway, I think I've seen all the films in the pool this year. Here are my predictions, although certainly not my personal choices:

Best Picture (7)
The Artist
Descendants
Midnight In Paris
Hugo
The Help
War Horse
+ one of the following:
Moneyball, Bridesmaids, Dragon Tattoo.

Director
Michel Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
Woody Allen
Tate Taylor
Martin Scorsese
*spoiler* Fincher knocks out Taylor

Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Michael Fassbender
Leonardo Dicaprio
*spoiler* Either Oldman or Demián Bichir could easily knock Dicaprio out.

Actress
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Michelle Williams
Glen Close
Tilda Swinton
*spoiler* Rooney Mara could knock out Close.
(I would love for Theron to be in this category, but it's not going to happen this year)

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Jonah Hill
Albert Brooks
Max Von Sydow
Kenneth Branagh
I don't really see any spoilers here

Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Melissa McCarthy
Bernice Bejo
Jessica Chastain (For The Help)
Janet McTeer
*spoiler* Carey Mulligan (for Shame) could knock out Chastain if Chastain's votes are split between The Help and Tree Of Life.

Who agrees/disagrees?

....but the world goes 'round

Updated On: 1/23/12 at 04:20 PM

#59

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:27pm

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Jonah Hill
Albert Brooks
Max Von Sydow
Kenneth Branagh
I don't really see any spoilers here

I don't think Von Sydow is a given, mostly because the sentiment towards his film hasn't been very positive. So far he's only been nominated for a Critics Choice Award and won two random critics' award. I definitely think he's in the running, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if he were knocked out by someone like Nick Nolte, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Viggo Mortenson, or Armie Hammer.

"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe." -John Guare, Landscape of the Body

#60

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:28pm

And the Academy will almost always overlook the comedic role.

In the Lead category, for sure, but the Academy does have a decent record of honoring comedic performances in the Supporting category, which is why I thought of McCarthy. But I fear McCarthy has lost momentum.

Meanwhile, I totally forgot Peggy Ashcroft won an Oscar for A Passage to India. For some reason, this makes my day.

"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian

#61

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:33pm

Oh I think McCarthy is not only a lock, but the only serious competition for Spencer.

....but the world goes 'round

#62

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:37pm

Tazber, I think you are pretty much on the money, and it could go exactly as you say.

I tend to think it might go just a little differently though:

Best Picture (10)
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Midnight In Paris
Hugo
The Help
War Horse
Moneyball
Bridesmaids

tenth spot: A Separation or The Ides of March, I'm going with A Separation

Director
Michel Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
Woody Allen
Martin Scorsese

fifth spot will go to Miller or Refn

Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Michael Shannon
Demian Bichir

I'm going out on a limb here with the last two, mostly just for sport, but my intuition says I might be right. I don't think Di Caprio will be nominated.

Actress
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Michelle Williams
Tilda Swinton

fifth spot: Glenn Close or Charlize Theron, my intuition says it will be Theron, my superintuition says I'm wrong and of course it will be Close

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Jonah Hill
Albert Brooks
Nick Nolte
Kenneth Branagh

I would love to see von Sydow nominated but think it will be Nolte

Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Melissa McCarthy
Bernice Bejo
Jessica Chastain (For The Help)
Janet McTeer

Tend to think it will be these five. Agree that Mulligan is the likely spoiler, if spoiler there be, but she is more likely to knock out McTeer than Chastain.

Original Screenplay
A Separation
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
The Artist
Young Adult

Adapted Screenplay
Moneyball
The Help
The Ides of March
The Descendants
Drive

Updated On: 1/23/12 at 04:37 PM

#63

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:42pm

I'm also glad you guys are mentioning Nolte. What a fantastic movie that seems to almost completely forgotten. Or maybe there is "boxing movie" fatigue after the past couple of years.

I would love for him to sneak in there though.

Also, I don't think that Demian Bichir is such an out there possibility. He got the SAG nomination.

....but the world goes 'round

#64

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:44pm

I hadn't seen WARRIOR until Nolte was nominated for the SAG (it slipped under my radar). So glad I did. He's fantastic, and it's a really excellent film to boot.

Definitely in my Top 10 for the year.

#65

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:47pm

I agree tazber that Bichir is not so out there, I more meant that he and Shannon both being nominated was perhaps a stretch, but then again, there always seem to be stretches, no?

#66

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 4:56pm

Way back when, I actually thought Harry Potter could pull out a Best Picture nod for the final installment. The reviews certainly were strong enough (100% from Top Critics on the Tomatometer). But now it's as if the film never even happened.

"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian

#67

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 5:02pm

As time has passed and the love for McCarthy's performance has either grown or become more openly discussed or both, my surprise has lessened, but I feel very, very out of the loop. The movie was fine. Kristen Wiig wrung some impressive pathos and complexity out of a by-the-numbers character and still managed some very funny moments. (Although I do think it's weird for her to be sold as some kind of odd-duck in the looks department; she's so conventionally pretty.)

But Melissa McCarthy... boy, I just didn't get it. At times her efforts to make her ideas land looked so labored that I winced, like watching Tracy Morgan on "30 Rock," and the only thing worse than feeling an actor's work is feeling a comedian's work. Compounding that, more often than not -- at the showing I attended, for sure -- the audience was laughing not with her, but at her, at this raunchy, masculine woman throwing herself around and engaging in arbitrarily nonsensical behavior. And McCarthy certainly was above making choices that didn't used the character's masculine qualities as a gag and her size as a sight gag. So, not only did I not find the character funny; I also found her a little offensive.

Great comedy performances are impressive; they're also much fewer and farther between because it's usually the inspiration of the actor to elevate what's on the page. But I really saw very little exceptional in "Bridesmaids." It was good. For a Hollywood comedy, it might even be very good... but Oscars? That I don't get, not for the writing and definitely not for McCarthy.

CHURCH DOOR TOUCAN GAY MARKETING PUPPIES MUSICAL THEATER STAPLES PERIOD OIL BITCHY SNARK HOLES

#68

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 5:26pm

I predict somewhat surprising nominations for -

Ryan Gosling, Drive
Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris (Screenplay AND Director)
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady

Beyoncé is not an ally. Actions speak louder than words, Mrs. Carter. #Dubai #$$$

#69

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 5:37pm

Would Woody be a surprise this year? As long as his movies aren't panned, he's almost always a lock in the screenplay category, and MiP got a wonderful reception.

CHURCH DOOR TOUCAN GAY MARKETING PUPPIES MUSICAL THEATER STAPLES PERIOD OIL BITCHY SNARK HOLES

#70

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 5:39pm

But for director too?

I have a feeling in my waters.

Beyoncé is not an ally. Actions speak louder than words, Mrs. Carter. #Dubai #$$$

#71

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 5:52pm

Oh, I see, I see -- your surprise is specifically that he gets both. Yes, that would be a huge surprise. He's gotten 9 writing noms and 4 directing noms, the last one for "Crimes and Misdemeanors" 23 years ago. Even though I think he's done better work than MiP since then, it would be a joy to see his name in the category.

CHURCH DOOR TOUCAN GAY MARKETING PUPPIES MUSICAL THEATER STAPLES PERIOD OIL BITCHY SNARK HOLES

#72

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 6:04pm

Agreed. Normally I like the Oscars decided by merit alone - but I put that conviction aside when it suits me. Go, Woody!

Beyoncé is not an ally. Actions speak louder than words, Mrs. Carter. #Dubai #$$$

#73

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 6:24pm

I really think this is a case of timing with the final Harry Potter film. If it had been a Christmas release, it would be a strong contender for a nomination (not that it would ever win). It got terrific reviews and the buzz would still be going now.

Because it was a summer release and didn't linger in memory, it doesn't stand a chance of getting a Best Pic nod. I would be shocked if it did.

I do think it will get some technical nods, though. No major noms.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

#74

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 6:34pm

Woody was actually last nominated as director a mere 17 years ago for Bullets Over Broadway, mysteriousgrowl...

Beyoncé is not an ally. Actions speak louder than words, Mrs. Carter. #Dubai #$$$

#75

Oscar nominations: final predictions, rants, musings

Posted: 1/23/12 at 6:44pm

Jay Lerner, given the popularity of Midnight in Paris and good showing during the awards season, including his nod from the directors guild, and the fact this is his biggest commercial hit ever, I think it would be surprising if he weren't nominated for both director and screenplay, not if he is.

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