Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 9:08am

... for the year 2013. With the Academy Awards one week from today, I thought I'd start a "final predictions" thread here.

This is for WHO YOU THINK WILL WIN, not your favorite or the "best." The grand prize winner with the most correct choices will receive a trip to Europe and $10,000. Or not.

BEST PICTURE:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
* 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
* Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
* Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
* Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
* Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
* Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
* Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

BEST DIRECTOR:
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
* Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
* The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
* CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff)
Facing Fear (Jason Cohen)
Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)

BEST FILM EDITING:
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa)
* Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
* The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
* Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Book Thief (John Williams)
* Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Happy (Despicable Me 2)
* Let It Go (Frozen)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Feral (Daniel Sousa, Dan Golden)
Get a Horse! (Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim)
* Mr. Hublot (Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares)
Possessions (Shuhei Morita)
Room on the Broom (Max Lang, Jan Lachauer)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) (Esteban Crespo)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything) (Xavier Legrand, Alexandre Gavras)
Helium (Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson)
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari)
* The Voorman Problem (Mark Gill, Baldwin Li)

BEST SOUND EDITING:
All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)
* Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge, Chris Ward)
Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro)
* Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Tony Johnson)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Lone Survivor (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, David Brownlow)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
* Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
* 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
* Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

One side note: I'm happy with the category name changes for "Best Production Design" rather than "Best Art Direction." Since many aspects of filmmaking have "art directors" (from costumes to makeup to set design to lighting designers, etc.), I think the overall "production design" category best suits the award. Also, I'm glad "hairstyling" is now included with "makeup," since it was falling through the cracks between costume design and makeup, without any recognition. Glad they fixed that.

I'm not happy with the sound category name changes. For most people, these two awards don't make sense. The difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing is negligible. Part of editing the sound should be mixing it, not just cutting it together. The visual equivalent would be Best Editing and Best Color Correction and Contrast. Not the smartest categories for Oscars and Oscar voters. They used to have Best Sound and Best Sound Effects Editing. That made more sense to me, because Sound Effects Editing was the aural equivalent of Best Visual Effects. Now it's just two aspects of Sound Editing and Design. These two Oscar categories need to be rethought and carefully delineated for the "average Oscar voter" and the average movie fan. They're too vague and confusing right now.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 9:16am

Do you know how the change in the sound categories came about? Was there widespread dissatisfaction with the previous categories? Was there one well-known example of extraordinarily meritorious sound mixing that was snubbed?

To this lay-person, the distinction seems arbitrary and perplexing.

You think, what do you want? You think, make a decision...

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 9:33am

Those sort of changes are usually initiated by the branches themselves. Then the governing board just approves or vetoes them. I can't even figure out when the change to "Best Sound Mixing" was made. I see no former winners, so I assume it used to be Sound Effects Editing. When I look up Best Sound Mixing, it just switches me to the Best Sound winners list, which is the OTHER existing category and goes back to the earliest days of sound in movies. So even Google is confused.

The point is, they should just make one Best Sound Design category, in my opinion, or delineate between "design" and "editing" and that's it. Unless they want to add a category for the CREATION of aural sounds, like Best Sound Effects (to go with the Best Visual Effects category).

But Sound Editing (which is also done by the film editor and is included in the Best Editing category, since no film editor edits only the picture/visual image, they edit the sound as well), Sound Design, and Sound Effects need to be delineated by the Academy, the categories, and their rules.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

Updated On: 2/23/14 at 09:33 AM

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 9:47am

I can appreciate that a film editor would, obviously, be involved in the sound editing process. Apart from the editor, would a film's sound "designer" be a different person than the sound "editor"? Wouldn't such a distinction just be a way to give the same person 2 awards?

And if the sound editing is poor, how do we know enough about the "design" to appreciate it? Wouldn't poor execution obscure the good intentions of a--theoretically--well-designed project?

If I do spectacularly beautiful drawings for a house but the built project is a mess--because I didn't manage/co-ordinate the project well, didn't anticipate site conditions, etc.--I don't still qualify for a "best design" award. The beautiful design is moot if the final product is a mess.

You think, what do you want? You think, make a decision...

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 9:49am

Digging through the Academy rules on their own website, I found the following. And it's still confusing, because BOTH awards seem to be design awards. Sound Editing is for the people who create and assemble the sound elements:

Eligibility for this award shall be limited to the Sound Editing Supervisor directly involved in and primarily responsible for the planning, creation, direction, and execution of the sound design and editing for each achievement. The supervisor must be the primary creative decision maker and principal interpreter of the director’s vision to the sound editing team. The supervisor must approve the sound effects and their specific placement in the film, coordinate the creation of newly designed sound and Foley effects, and coordinate the editing of dialogue and ADR. The supervisor must oversee the recording of the pre-dubs and be present at the final mix. In the event the above responsibilities are divided, both co-supervisors must adhere to the above criteria.

Sound Mixing seems to be for the people who do the final mix for the movie theatres.

The Theater Sound Inspection Committee shall inspect and approve the projection sound systems of the Academy’s theaters prior to the annual screening of nominated achievements. No changes may be made in the sound systems after final approval by the committee. Any composite release print that plays on the normal projection sound system of the Academy’s theaters requires no special approval of the committee. Any production that deviates from the normal sound system, or requires modification of the system, must be approved by a majority of the committee before the final check of the system. Notification of such deviation or modification requirements must be submitted to the Academy at least three weeks in advance of the annual screenings of the nominated achievements.

How any moviegoer (Academy member or not) can tell the difference between who created/assembled the sound and who mixed it all together is beyond me.

Their combined efforts reach the ear at the same moment as a joint-effort.

These categories are not clear. They overlap for anyone in the audience listening, and they should be rethought, especially for voters and peer recognition. Right now, they're too "insider" within the craft.

It's like giving an award for Best Hidden Hair Under a Wig along with Best Hairstyles. Who the hell can tell the difference?

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 12:50pm

BEST PICTURE:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: 12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Winner: Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB- Now, I used to think he was a weak front-runner as he never went head to head with DiCaprio in his category but now I think the fact True Detective (which for me is actually his best performance to date) was playing on television during the heart of the voting period helps his case a lot.
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Winner: Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Alternate: Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE- Cate's so winning but Amy being a perceived runner-up in the first time that feels like since Junebug helps her upcoming narrative next year where hopefully she can finally win with BIG EYES.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Winner: Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB
Alternate: Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Winner: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, AMERICAN HUSTLE

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Winner: FROZEN
Alternate: THE WIND RISES

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: None. If Bobbitt had been nominated for 12YAS, I would've said him. Damn Phedon Papamichael's unnecessary b&w photography getting in instead!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Winner: THE GREAT GATSBY
Alternate: 12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST DIRECTOR:
Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Alternate: David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE- Yes, I actually don't even think McQueen is the runner-up. Russell is more populist than McQueen and AH is a director's work that is a more populist film. Even though this is not likely: Think of it as Ridley Scott vs. Ang Lee vs. Steven Soderbergh where Ridley's effect's driven epic got the Best Picture win but the director, Soderbergh, who had been in the business for years with equal amounts of failure and success, who was on the up and up entering that Oscar year, with an all-star cast and a very director film won Best Director when perception was the artistic outsider, Lee, was the runner-up until Oscar night.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Winner: 20 FEET FROM STARDOM
Alternate: THE SQUARE

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Winner: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
Alternate: Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)

BEST FILM EDITING:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Winner: THE GREAT BEAUTY
Alternate: THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Winner: BAD GRANDPA- This is usually the category where the branch embraces merit than overlapping with the other Oscar films
Alternate: DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB- That said, the stories that came out that the ENTIRE makeup budget for DBC was $250 the whole shooting is definitely something the branch could grab on to

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: HER

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Winner: LET IT GO
Alternate: ORDINARY LOVE (Harvey has to win somewhere)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Winner: THE GREAT GATSBY
Alternate: GRAVITY (The production design was SPAAAAACCCCEEEEE!!!!)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Winner: Get a Horse! (Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim)
Alternate: Mr. Hublot (Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Winner: The Voorman Problem (Mark Gill, Baldwin Li)
Alternate: Helium (Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson)

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Winner: GRAVITY
Alternate: None, I find this category locked down.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Winner: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Runner-Up: PHILOMENA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Winner: HER
Alternate: AMERICAN HUSTLE

I actually feel like I get more what Sound Editing vs. Sound Mixing was when you contrasted last year where action/genre films like Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall tied for Editing but the live-musical Les Miz got the Mixing. Also, note that Inside Llewyn Davis, that heavily relied on live music performances, got a Mixing nomination and not an Editing.

Updated On: 2/24/14 at 12:50 PM

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 1:14pm

Mine are:
BEST PICTURE:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
* The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
* Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
* Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
* Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
* Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
* Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
* Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

BEST DIRECTOR:
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
* The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
* The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff)
* Facing Fear (Jason Cohen)
Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)

BEST FILM EDITING:
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa)
* Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
* The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
* The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Book Thief (John Williams)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
* Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
* Happy (Despicable Me 2)
Let It Go (Frozen)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
* Feral (Daniel Sousa, Dan Golden)
Get a Horse! (Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim)
Mr. Hublot (Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares)
Possessions (Shuhei Morita)
Room on the Broom (Max Lang, Jan Lachauer)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) (Esteban Crespo)
* Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything) (Xavier Legrand, Alexandre Gavras)
Helium (Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson)
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari)
The Voorman Problem (Mark Gill, Baldwin Li)

BEST SOUND EDITING:
All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)
Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
* The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge, Chris Ward)
Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro)
Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
* The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Tony Johnson)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Lone Survivor (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, David Brownlow)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
* The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
* The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
* Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

http://las-vegas.hotelscheap.org/

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 1:22pm

Yes, it is looking more and more likely that GRAVITY will win Best Picture over 12 YEARS A SLAVE.

I think Costume Design will go to AMERICAN HUSTLE rather than THE GREAT GATSBY.

Best song, I am going to guess that it is neck and neck between LET IT GO and ORDINARY LOVE (because the latter is about Nelson Mandela and could be a sentimental choice).

While the sets are lavish in THE GREAT GATSBY, there is something about the production design on GRAVITY that blew people's minds (even if it is mostly CGI but that is the wave of the future).

Make-up/hairstyling will go to DALLAS BUYERS CLUB.

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 1:32pm

I'll include my favorites too, because why the hell not. I've only predicted the categories I know enough about to make a proper prediction.

BEST PICTURE:
WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
SHOULD WIN: Her or The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey
SHOULD WIN: Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Emma Thompson

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
WILL WIN: Jared Leto
SHOULD WIN: Jonah Hill

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong'o
SHOULD WIN: June Squibb
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Scarlett Johansson

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
WILL WIN: Frozen
SHOULD WIN: Frozen or The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Gravity
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby or American Hustle
SHOULD WIN: American Hustle

BEST DIRECTOR:
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Let it Go

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
WILL WIN: The Great Gatsby
SHOULD WIN: Her

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
WILL & SHOULD WIN: Gravity

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: 12 Years a Slave
SHOULD WIN: The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
WILL WIN: American Hustle or Her
SHOULD WIN: Her

#10

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 1:33pm

Picture: Gravity
Director: Cuaron
Actor: McConaughey (But hoping for a DiCaprio surprise.)
Actress: Blanchett (Other nominees should dress for comfort.)
Supporting Actor: Leto
Supporting Actress: Lawrence (This truly pains me. But I feel she will win again.)

I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm kind of hoping American Hustle goes home empty handed. That movie was all costumes and hairspray to me. The second consecutive Russell film to be loved far too much by the Academy. I almost always adore Amy Adams, but she did nothing for me here. The closer we get to the actual ceremony, and from the secret ballots that have been shared, I think Jennifer Lawrence will win another Oscar for that terrible SNL-esque character.

#11

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 1:41pm

I personally think Amy Adams should do David O. Russell movies all the time, especially whenever she is too often considered the housewife/matronly role. He brings out something different in her. She was my best in show for me but I seem at odds with a lot of people I know who hated it and seem to just shrug that performance. Jennifer Lawrence, on the other hand, should probably not always do Russell films because I am still not completely sure what age she is ever supposed to be in the roles he picks for her.

#12

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:03pm

I actually think if there is a surprise win in the Best Actor category, it will be Chiwetel Ejiofor.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

#13

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:20pm

JAlley, Streep has no chance in hell of winning. IN fact, I would even say she's dead last. Adams is a distant second, and Bullock and Dench are 3 and 4, respectively.

Salve, Regina, Mater misericordiae
Vita, dulcedo, et spes nostra
Salve, Salve Regina
Ad te clamamus exsules filii Eva
Ad te suspiramus, gementes et flentes
O clemens O pia

#14

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:21pm

I just love that Best Actor is actually a horse race for once. I can see at least three of them potentially winning. Dern has his supporters, but he and Bale are in 4th and 5th respectively in a slam dunk year for leading men.

#15

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:21pm

In an Adrien Brody-level upset? I can see it.

#16

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:23pm

JAlley was clearly telling us their ballot selections in lieu of actual predictions. But like every year, the two rarely if ever mirror one another.

#17

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/23/14 at 2:50pm

Yeah, if I were going by my own opinions, I'd have 12YAS and The Wolf of Wall Street swapping with Her getting the techs it has not shot at winning.

#18

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 2:06pm

BEST PICTURE:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
* 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
*Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

** I know McConaughey is the clear front-runner, with Ejiofor coming in second, but I can really see the big upset of the night being DiCaprio taking home the gold. I finally saw DBC this weekend and although I thought he gave a great performance, I by no means think he gave the best performance of the year. I thought DiCaprio and Ejiofor gave better performances.

Leo gave the performance of his career to date and is long over due. He also has been heavily campaigning and knows how to give a speech. Yes, MM is doing great work and is having the best year(s) of his career, but watching True Detective, I think he is doing better work on that show than in DBC and I'm wondering if that could hurt him. Or would his work in TD, Mud, and TWOWS help seal the deal?

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
* Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
* Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
* Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson)
Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri)
Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner)
* Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)
The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
* Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
Prisoners (Roger A. Deakins)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor)
12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris)

BEST DIRECTOR:
American Hustle (David O. Russell)
* Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)
Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher)
Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill)
The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)
*20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff)
Facing Fear (Jason Cohen)
Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)
*The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)

BEST FILM EDITING:
American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten)
Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse)
Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa)
* Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)
12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
* The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
* Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)
The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Book Thief (John Williams)
* Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Happy (Despicable Me 2)
* Let It Go (Frozen)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)
* The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn)
Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Feral (Daniel Sousa, Dan Golden)
*Get a Horse! (Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim)
Mr. Hublot (Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares)
Possessions (Shuhei Morita)
Room on the Broom (Max Lang, Jan Lachauer)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) (Esteban Crespo)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything) (Xavier Legrand, Alexandre Gavras)
*Helium (Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson)
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari)
The Voorman Problem (Mark Gill, Baldwin Li)

BEST SOUND EDITING:
All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns)
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)
* Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge, Chris Ward)
Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman)

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro)
* Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Tony Johnson)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Lone Survivor (Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, David Brownlow)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
* Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds)
Iron Man 3 (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, Dan Sudick)
The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, John Frazier)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
* 12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
*American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

#19

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 2:17pm

Gravity
Cuaron
McConaughey
Blanchett
Leto
Nyong'o
Frozen (animated)
12 Years (adapted screenplay)
Her (original screenplay)
Let It Go (song)
Gravity - all the technical awards
Gatsby (costumes)
Dallas Buyers (makeup)
Gravity (score)

All in all it's going to be a big night for Gravity with a huge tally and Dallas Buyers with the 2 acting awards and makeup.

....but the world goes 'round

#20

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 2:54pm

If "Gravity" wins (and it very well might), it will be the first Science Fiction movie ever to win Best Picture.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

#21

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 3:08pm

12 Years, Alfonso, Cate, Matthew, Jared, and Lupita.

The common wisdom. Her and 12 Years for screenplays.

The worst movie of the year, La Grande Belleza, will win best foreign language film (yes, I hated it even more than I hated August: Osage County).

A surprise win that would make me really happy would be Bruce Dern.

#22

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 3:20pm

Does GRAVITY count as science fiction? Not to start a big debate/argument or anything...

"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers." Thomas Pynchon, GRAVITY'S RAINBOW "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." Philip K. Dick My blog: http://www.roscoewrites.blogspot.com/

#23

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 4:02pm

I think 12 Years deserves the win between the two, but I can't see the Academy giving it to such a difficult picture.

The last time they did that was Schindler's List.

They always go middle of the road.

....but the world goes 'round

#24

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 4:08pm

It's fiction. And, being about the science (however right it got the science) and travails of space travel, it's science fiction.... a subgenre thereof, though in not being futuristic, fantasy or, in the usual sense of the word, extraterrestrial, it's atypical.

#25

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 4:34pm

GRAVITY is absolutely sci-fi.

I will post a longer post this week, but one race I'm very interested in is Documentary Feature. I think THE SQUARE is a serious contender but think all of you are short selling THE ACT OF KILLING's chances. 20 FEET FROM STARDOM, meanwhile, has little to no shot of winning in my book. Not even regarding it's merit — it's up against two of the most notable documentaries in years (one politically extremely current and Inside-Hollywood prominent with it's Netflix prominence; one a formally revolutionary piece of filmmaking that has been one of the most discussed works in the field in a generation.)

Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.

← Back to Message Board

View all Videos

Tickets From $58

Tickets From $71