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#26

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 4:57pm

Keep in mind that Academy members cannot vote for the following awards unless they have seen ALL of the nominees in the categories:

Best Foreign Language Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Documentary Short
Best Animated Short Film
Best Live Action Short Film

I wish it were true for the other categories, but it's not. Still, it does help prevent a "popularity contest" from taking over. I've seen more surprises and Oscar pools lost because of the winners in the categories named above. But I at least take heart in knowing that no Academy member was allowed to vote on the award unless they had seen all five nominees.

... which is why, I agree, 20 Feet From Stardom (a popular documentary) doesn't gather steam against the others because more people have seen it or want to see it. Voters have to see all five films first before they decide.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

#27

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 5:03pm

As far as "Gravity" ... I say it's definitely Science Fiction. Nothing like that has ever happened before, so it's all conjecture as to what might result if it did happen. So it's not just fiction, it's speculative fiction of a scientific nature. Even if it seems possible that it could happen, and even if it appears believable and realistic, it's still Science Fiction.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

Updated On: 2/25/14 at 05:03 PM

#28

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 5:58pm

My heart will be absolutely torn if 12 Years A Slave takes home Best Picture on Sunday night. 2013 was one of the best years for film in a very, very long time and for such a mediocre movie to win when the year was THAT great would be disappointing to me. I know it's loved, but I still can't seem to figure out why. The only performance that really impressed me was Fassbender (who was robbed for an Oscar nomination in McQueen's prior film Shame). Lupita didn't give a bad performance by any means, but it was in no way something that should be nominated for awards. It was a small role and she made little impact, IMO. It wasn't a movie I hated and it was technically well made, but I felt so distant from it. I just didn't care and that is coming from someone who ADORED McQueen's two other films. It was easily one of the biggest disappointments of the year for me.

I'm still a little burned that Adèle Exarchopoulos didn't get nominated for Best Actress. I know it was a long shot but the Academy does like acknowledging performances from foreign films from time to time. Again, like with Shame a few years ago, the content is what cost it. She gave literally the best performance of the past few years and it's a shame it couldn't be recognized.

Best Picture: Gravity
Best Director: Alfonso Cueron, Gravity
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress: Cate Blanchette
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

#29

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 7:59pm

I hope there are a couple of big surprises. With the endless pre-Oscar awards and the cottage industry of awards journalism, it's become nearly impossible to go into this evening without an assumption about pre-destined winners. The idea of "deserving" an award over other creative artists is silly and feels pointless for me to get emotionally invested in. It's the big surprises and upsets that make for much better tv. But here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)

BEST DIRECTOR:
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
No clue. If one of them's about the Holocaust, that one.

BEST FILM EDITING:
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Omar (Palestine)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Let It Go (Frozen)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Gravity (Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woollard)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
No clue

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
No clue

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Gravity (Glenn Freemantle)

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Her (Spike Jonze)

#30

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 9:23pm

I feel so at odds with people who think, after years as Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, and The King's Speech, 12 Years a Slave somehow breaks some trend and **is** the mediocrity. It's tougher than those films, although tougher is hardly synonymous with better (there are more than a few art house films that could be sicced on Gitmo prisoners for torture purposes), I still feel it is a film which more to say than those movies that have won Best Picture. You're mixing an art house/video artist director with an important subject matter. It's not your meat and potatoes Best Picture winner, let alone a usual nominee. It has more in common with a Dreyer film than a Django Unchained. Of course it's not for everyone (though I continue to be perplexed by anyone who prefers Shame to this). Same with Gravity, which I also think dares to be as lean and as simple as it is whereas any other blockbuster around the last 15-20 years has to tag-on an hour or so, add more characters, show mission control, etc. Few filmmakers would've started an uninterrupted shot for 15 minutes where the first disturbance of the film happens is in that very shot. Forget sci-fi, it's rare for a minimalist film to also be an epic to also win Best Picture. They're both far from the usual winners. They're not my favorites of the year but either of them winning would feel like a breath a fresh air after a year in which Ben Affleck rode the 'Woe is me' snub to a Best Picture win or any given Harvey Weinstein film in the race.

Updated On: 2/25/14 at 09:23 PM

#31

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 9:43pm

Different strokes I guess. I don't think 12 Years is "mediocre" as some do, but I wouldn't put it in a league with either Argo or The King's Speech. Not even close. Its subject matter may be more relevant, but that in no way makes it a better film. It has a lot of problems (mostly pacing, but other issues as well, including the script and direction). And Slumdog was just a notch above terrible, made only watchable because of its appealing cast. Having seen it again recently, its "serious" plot is undermined completely by that horrible gameshow framework, not to mention the premise is badly acted, directed, and written throughout. It's just too much of a trivial sabotage in an otherwise serious movie.

So I liked 12 Years, loved Argo and The King's Speech, and didn't (at all) like Slumdog. And don't even get me started on that wretched Hurt Locker.

Different strokes.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

#32

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 11:04pm

I thought Argo was a crackerjack spy caper, top of its craft; King's Speech a respectably above-average traditional biopic; Hurt Locker a very good war character study; and Slumdog a vibrant breath of fresh air around a ho-hum love story. To each their own indeed! Always better to be interesting and memorable than to be bland. Thankfully, our two frontrunners this year are each the former, as strummer elaborated.

Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.

#33

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/25/14 at 11:07pm

I can still remember a certain segment of my age group of critics at Toronto who expected Max Ophuls in space with Gravity and that it felt more like Alien than Children of Men was some incredible failing on Cuaron's part and therefore, a bad film. It wasn't what people expected. Not that film that made $10 at the box office but a populist, large scale film with his style. To me it felt like a good marriage of art and commerce than a compromise but on social media I feel a bit alone in not thinking Gravity winning would be some shonda. Then again, I have a bigger issue with Her (that I like but I think it wants to have it both ways) winning than say even an American Hustle, which is also at odds with social media who have the opposite reaction.

I'll always defend The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow wins. Small art war film that never anticipated itself beyond being a festival film plus she is one of my favorite filmmakers so..... yeah, different strokes.

I focused a lot of my education was on Iranian-US relations so Argo looks different to me and falls apart the moment a CIA agent asks in earnest, 'Are the children of Iran starving?'

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 11:07 PM

#34

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 5:50am

I re-watched Gravity again last night and I was just as amazed at how Cuaron did what he did.

I also had forgotten how "action packed" it was. Once it gets going there is no slowing down. I found myself forgetting to breathe several times.

It's an incredible ride.

It's obviously not as immersive as it is on the big screen, but it still packs a punch.

....but the world goes 'round

#35

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 7:05am

^ That's one of the things I'm most curious about with "Gravity." I saw it on a big (enough) movie screen in 3D.

I'm wondering how it will play and how much mega-impact that (small) story will have on a smaller TV screen.

... According to you, Taz, it still works.

If that's the case, and the movie still holds a big punch, I'd say that definitely increases its chances for a Best Picture win.

I figured if many voters watched this movie on a screener DVD (in 2D), they wouldn't be as impressed with the overall film.

"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."

blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 07:05 AM

#36

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 7:15am

I think I enjoyed it more on my TV actually. It was a little vertiginous in the theater.

I had a vague sense of motion sickness after seeing it in IMAX.

....but the world goes 'round

#37

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 8:38am

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConnaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (alt: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (alt: N/A)
Best Supp. Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (alt: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips)
Best Supp. Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (alt: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave)

#38

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 8:50am

I'll second GRAVITY's impact on TV -- I got the 3D bluray and checked it out on my 52 inch TV, and it looked and sounded great. I wasn't up to a full viewing, but I did manage the first half hour or so. It'll be the See How Cool 3D Blu Ray TV Is? show disc from now on.

My Oscar Picks -- what WILL win, rather than what SHOULD win.

BEST PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave -- I think this is one way they'll finally be able to give Brad Pitt an Oscar.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Although I'd be glad to see Leonardo DiCaprio score an upset.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
This will be interesting. Will the Dylan mess affect the votes?

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Lubezki is LONG overdue, after his magnificent work on such films as TREE OF LIFE, THE NEW WORLD, CHILDREN OF MEN, etc.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)

BEST DIRECTOR:
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

BEST FILM EDITING:
Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Great Beauty (Italy)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Dallas Buyers Club (Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Gravity (Steven Price)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Let It Go (Frozen)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
12 Years a Slave (Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker)

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney)

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Gravity (Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Gravity (Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Neil Corbould)
Gotta say I'd be fine with THE HOBBIT: DESOLATION OF SMAUG winning here, too. That dragon was a major accomplishment.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)

Almost entirely surprise free, I'm afraid. I'm fine with most of the winners above. I'll be bummed if that AMERICAN HUSTLE crap picks up the Screenplay Oscar, but I fear it'll be the bone it gets tossed.

"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers." Thomas Pynchon, GRAVITY'S RAINBOW "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." Philip K. Dick My blog: http://www.roscoewrites.blogspot.com/

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 08:50 AM

#39

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:22am

Alright, here's my WILL WIN predictions. Guaranteed satisfaction or your $0 money back!

Best Picture: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
(Runner-up: GRAVITY)

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, GRAVITY
(Steve McQueen. 12 YEARS A SLAVE)

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
(Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE)

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
(Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE)

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
(Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
(Jennifer Lawrence, 12 YEARS A SLAVE)

Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, HER
(David O. Russell and Eric Singer, AMERICAN HUSTLE)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater, BEFORE MIDNIGHT
(John Ridley, 12 YEARS A SLAVE)

Best Foreign Language Film: THE GREAT BEAUTY, Italy
(THE HUNT, Denmark)

Best Animated Feature Film: FROZEN
(THE WIND RISES)

Best Documentary Feature Film: THE ACT OF KILLING
(THE SQUARE)

Best Original Song: "Let It Go" from FROZEN, music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
(“Ordinary Love” from MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM, music by Paul Hewson (aka Bono), Dave Evans (aka The Edge), Larry Mullen, and Adam Clayton; lyrics by Paul Hewson)

Best Original Score: Steven Price, GRAVITY
(Thomas Newman, SAVING MR. BANKS)

Best Costume Design: Patricia Norris, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
(Catherine Martin, THE GREAT GATSBY)

Best Production Design: Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn, THE GREAT GATSBY
(Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler, AMERICAN HUSTLE)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
(Stephen Prouty, JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA)

Best Editing: Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, GRAVITY
(Christopher Rouse, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, GRAVITY
(Really, no one.)

Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, GRAVITY
(Oliver Tarney, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)

Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, and Chris Munro, GRAVITY
(Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, and Chris Munro, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)

Best Visual Effects: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, and Neil Corbould, GRAVITY
(Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and Eric Reynolds, THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG)

Best Documentary Short Film: THE LADY IN NUMBER 6: MUSIC SAVED MY LIFE
(KARAMA HAS NO WALLS)

Best Live-Action Short Film: AVANT QUE DE TOUT PERDRE (JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING)
(AQUEL NO ERA YO (THAT WASN'T ME))

Best Animated Short Film: GET A HORSE!
(MR. HUBLOT)

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 10:22 AM

#40

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:29am

I'm only listing the categories I have any basis for knowledge of (i.e.-documentary short? No clue.)

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: American Hustle (which I'm rooting for)

Best Actress in a leading role: Cate Blanchett (yawn)
Spoiler: Amy Adams (I'm in her corner)

Best Actor in a leading role: Matthew McConaughey (he picked up a lot of steam coming into the Oscars and stands a decent chance)
Spoiler: Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (I really think this one is a done deal-he's won every single award)
Spoiler: If there is one it's probably Jonah Hill or Bradley Cooper (but given Leto's record, this might be a pretty sure category)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Lupita Nyong'o (She's pretty much swept)
Spoiler: Jennifer Lawrence (they may choose to give American Hustle something in the acting department); another scenario is June Squibb winning (she's a respected actress and Nebraska is a highly acclaimed film)

Best Direction of a Motion Picture: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Animated Feature: Frozen

Best Song: Ordinary Love (sorry, but it HAS won every award and Mandela just passed away)

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
Spoiler: Nebraska

These are pretty much the categories I feel comfortable providing any prognostications for the awards.

#41

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:31am

I've you want to know my list of winners just scroll up a couple of posts and read Roscoe's LOL. He pretty much chose every one of my favorites to win.

#42

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:34am

I agree about ORDINARY LOVE. Is it a better song than LET IT GO? I don't know. But it is about Nelson Mandela and written by U2 -- definitely a sentimental favorite.

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 10:34 AM

#43

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:43am

^ I've been thinking that way for most of the season...but Let It Go seems to have taken over the nation. It's insane how popular the song is with not only kids, but people with kids.

I have no dog in any of these races...but if Jennifer Lawrence wins for that cray-cray kabuki performance of a Jersey/Valley girl, I will eat the entirety of the baked ziti I'm planning on making for Oscar Sunday.

#44

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:49am

Scattered thoughts, etc:

Man, McConaughey's timing has been perfect with TRUE DETECTIVE earning him so much buzz during the voting window.
Thomas Newman is slowly moving from "He'll get an Oscar someday, for sure" to "Man, I really hope he gets an Oscar someday!" Not unlike his cousin, Randy.
My screenplay picks were where I let my cautious optimism outrun my pragmatism. But if you have to pick upsets somewhere (and I think you should), I felt they were merited there.
I think it would be hilarious and amazing if BAD GRANDPA won. Remember, this is the category that gave NORBIT an Oscar.

Overall prediction: 12 YEARS A SLAVE wins more "major" awards, GRAVITY wins the most overall including Director. That feels like the consensus compromise, and I'd argue a fair one taking into account how silly and arbitrary awards voting is. Does it happen? Who can say. If anything, with all the great films this year, I'm rooting a lack of a sweep.

#45

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 10:49am

I LOVED her performance and think American Hustle is a great film. I sure enjoyed it more than 12 Years. (And Amy Adams was great as well-she finally got out of that ingenue mold.)

Updated On: 2/26/14 at 10:49 AM

#46

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 11:03am

Oooof...I found her performance absurd and the film to be completely overrated. I was still entertained. But I was completely flummoxed by the praise heaped upon it.

#47

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 11:08am

Funny, I thought 12 Years to be completely over hyped and it distorted the truth for the director's own agenda.

#48

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 11:10am

"(12 YEARS A SLAVE) distorted the truth for the director's own agenda."

Interesting. Can you say more about this?

#49

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 11:10am

Well...I've yet to see 12 years (I may watch this weekend)...so it's not like I'm picking one over the other. Like I hinted at, I don't feel strongly about anything I've seen to become a cheerleader for anything. I basically watch the Oscars to make snarky comments on Facebook while either drunk or stoned.

#50

Your Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Posted: 2/26/14 at 11:13am

Fair enough, Robbie.

Roscoe, I'm not going to publicly say why or what. You can read the real book and then the difference will be very apparent.

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