2007 Tony Winners(Maybe) — Page 3

"Am I the only person convinced that Spring Awakening is going to take home best musical?"

Nope!!!!! 'Cause I sure as hell am!!!!

And Chitty Chitty Bang Bang was NOT nominated for Best Musical.

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LoveMusik is indeed eligible.

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I feel that I can make some predictions having seeing all of the major contenders but LoveMusik, Legally Blonde and 110 in the Shade.
Best Musical: Grey Gardens
Best Actor: Raul Esparza
Best Actress: Christine Ebersole
Best Featured Actor: John McMartin (Go ahead, laugh)
Best Featured Actress: Mary Louise Wilson
Best Director: Hal Prince
Best Revival: A Chorus Line (Unfortunately. It would be nice for Company to take it. As if Michael Bennett and his greedy estate need more money.)
Best Book: Wright
Best Score: Korie and Frankel OR Kander and Ebb (It's up for grabs)
Best Set: Mary Poppins
Best Costumes: Grey Gardens
Best Lighting: Spring Awakening

Regarding plays, I haven't seen many, but I plan on seeing Deuce, which I think will be great. Judging from buzz, reviews and my opinions which are few this time around-
Best Play: Coast of Utopia
Best Actor: Liev Schreiber
Best Actress: Angela Lansbury

Grey Gardens may be good, but it's one expensive nap IMO.

Why would the Tony voters -- none of whom are teenagers and most of whom are in their 50s, 60s and 70s (and older) -- want to give the Tony to a show "that's gotten the teens out in droves?" Not that I'm even sure that's true. SA is still far from a sell-out hit and only started topping 50% attendance after the reviews came out which attracted adults to see it. Even the so-called "teen phenomenon" WICKED failed to win the Tony for Best Musical (and according to its lead producer, the whole "it's a show for teenange girls" thing is a total misnomer -- according to him, teenagers have always made up less than 10% of WICKED's audience. Teenagers aren't the ones plunking down $100-350 a ticket to see that show week after week -- it's middle aged and older adults who buy 90% of tickets (which is roughly the same percentage for every show on Broadway including SA).

Historically, Tony voters have very very rarely given a fig about whatever show is popular with teens (which is why you didn't see any wins for Wedding Singer, Brooklyn or All Shook Up in recent years). For Best Musical, they tend to prefer shows that are fun and conventional and appeal more to middle-aged mainstream tastes over those that are darker and edgier and more serious or "artistic" (LION KING beat RAGTIME; MILLIE beat URINETOWN; SPAMALOT beat PIAZZA; THE PAJAMA GAME revival beat the SWEENEY revival). If you want to predict this years winners, look at what seems to be the most commercial, most appealing to a wide audience, most light-hearted and most entertaining to the 45-75 age bracket and you'll find your winner.

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Updated On: 3/23/07 at 03:45 AM

Wow! I hope you're right, because GG is my passion. It is the best-written AND ACTED musical I've seen in ages. I hope it wins best musical. (It is not an "expensive nap"-It is a poignant, beautiful story of a mother and daughter trapped by societal constraints, as well as their own dependence on each other.) Ms. E. should win-and probably will, as will Mary Louise Wilson.
As for McMartin-I'm not laughing-I take him seriously. He's excellent. It's tougher to call, though. (And I don't know that GG will take 3 out of 4 acting awards.)
Margo-Your comment on who goes to the theater-GG fits in perfectly with that image.
Now that Curtains' reviews are out, we get a clearer picture: I tend to think GG's reviews were better than Curtains'.

Best Book-I do totally agree-Doug Wright did a brilliant job. Should win-SA may take it, though.
Best Music: Tough to beat Kander and Ebb. Scott Frankel and Michael Korie have crafted a gorgeous score that touches every emotion-from high opera to high comedy. Beautiful score! (Don't count Duncan Sheik out, either.)

But-JV-I totally share your love for GG. I sincerely hope these predictions come to pass.

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