Kinky Boy said: "Yes JPeterman, I will see it. I just find it amazing how everyone on here picks and chooses what shows they think will succeed. What makes Dear Evan Hansen more likely to succeed than in transit or Bandstand or Come from Away. They are all new musicals with no stars in them, and not really well known."
It's about who's attached to the show. Dear Evan Hansen's team is revered on Broadway. Ben Platt has been in more than one commercially successful movie. The producers have deeeeep pockets - which itself would make sure that the show stay open till Tonys. Word of mouth is already strong (their off-Broadway run was practically sold out). Multiple Drama Desk wins from last season would be a primary advertising tool to attract tourists. Their advance sales are strong based on reports. It's also starting early enough in the season to get a chance to build really strong word of mouth before Feb/March - when real competition starts. The aforementioned deep pockets often translate to a crazy Tonys campaign.
Come From Away also comes in after multiple critically acclaimed runs, but does not enjoy the advantages DEH has. Bandstand has least advantage, but has a Tony nominated leading lady, and Tony-winner choreography. They'll have to rely on strong family-friendly advertisement.
I think it's fair to say DEH has a better chance than most musicals to survive not only till summer, but beyond.
Caption: Every so often there was a rare moment of perfect balance when I soared above him.