Right now, if there were only 4 nominees, I think they would be
After Midnight
Gentlemen's Guide (the two of them have gotten the best reviews so far and have stayed open)
If/Then
Bullets
So who's the fifth nominee? A convincing case could be made for any of the remaining contenders (Aladdin, Beautiful, Bridges, and Rocky), with Rocky being the least likely at this point. Aladdin could be dismissed as fluff, but it might end up getting better reviews than any of the others. Beautiful got very mixed reviews and might be hurt that it's the only jukebox musical of the final choices (and awkward song placement), but it's selling, so it's striking a chord with audiences. Bridges has the pedigree (and slightly better reviews than Beautiful, I think) and could well win Best Score and some people love it. Rocky is an underdog once more, but it is a technical achievement that could only be done on Broadway.
Sales and reviews over the next month will help clarify things.
"What was the name of that cheese that I like?"
"you can't run away forever...but there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start"
"well I hope and I pray, that maybe someday, you'll walk in the room with my heart"