Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 5/5/19 — Page 2

Did Network not run last week or did I miss it on the list?

Miles2Go2 said: "I don’t know why people think Frozen had a bad week. It sold 94% of its potential gross. And it grossed over a million bucks. Most shows would kill to have such a “bad” week. It’s clearly not The Lion King at the box office, but it’s doing quite well. I haven’t seen Frozen and have no plans to on Broadway. It’s coming as an add-on to our local 20/21 season. Perhaps I’ll catch it then. A show can lack originality and still be a box office success. As much as we’d like it not to be so, it happens all the time."

I certainly agree that most shows would kill to have a $1.1 million "bad week". In addition, Frozen's two main rivals (Wicked and Mean Girls) also saw steep declines, so Frozen's problems are not unique. However, Frozen has always been struggling with "the curse of high expectations". It is a heavily hyped, high-budget adaptation of a relatively recent smash-hit film that remains popular and iconic. Assuming that the weekly nut is $900k-$1 million, a $200,000 return is not great. In addition, it has been outearned by Aladdin for most of 2019, even though Aladdin has been around a lot longer. I feel like the big test for Frozen is whether or not it can make it to 1000 performances (This milestone would occur around Labour Day 2020). If it misses out on that target, it will probably be considered a flop. I don't think alarm bells will start ringing unless the weekly earnings drop below $1 million, but this could happen sooner than many anticipated...

P.S For all its problems, Frozen has definitely done better than Tarzan or The Little Mermaid, and it will almost certainly still be on Broadway when the tour starts and Frozen 2 comes out. But it may need some editing before the international versions open...

Im not sure I see Frozen making it past 2020. With the influx on new musicals coming, a Beauty and the Beast revival, I think this gets eaten up for all the reasons mentioned. Show itself isn't all that special, so name recognition alone is what is selling this at this point, and I can't see that sustaining itself thru Summer 2020. Especially with a tour out as well this fall which will prevent some people from taking their kids to see it in NYC.

Many shows have closed the balcony if sales are poor, to push the audience closer to the action. I even remember Cinderella closing the rear mezz at the Broadway the night I saw it.

Disney won't close FROZEN until they see the impact of FROZEN 2, in the hopes that it reignites interest in the brand. Of course, the LION KING and ALADDIN remakes could also overpower FROZEN. Anna & Elsa will probably make it to year 2, but anything longer remains to be seen.

The biggest realization may be that Disney can't sustain more than 2 shows on Broadway at a time. They did have 4 running for a short time in 06-07 (Lion King, Beauty, Poppins, and Tarzan), but one was a huge flop and one was at the end of its run.

Updated On: 5/7/19 at 10:53 AM

SomethingPeculiar said: "The biggest realization may bethat Disney can't sustain more than 2 shows on Broadway at a time. They did have 4 running for a short time in 06-07 (Lion King, Beauty, Poppins, and Tarzan), but one was a huge flop and one was at the end of its run."

I agree with this notion, especially 3 big budget musicals. The only time they were able to have 3 musicals run simultaneously for more then a year without one posting a closing notice during that time was when Aida, The Lion King, and Beauty and the Beast were running between 2000 and 2004. It has to be noted though that Aida although technically a Disney Theatrical production, I would not consider it a Disney musical akin to the rest. Add to that it and Tarzan are the only Disney productions without Disney in the title on the playbill, although the later is an adaptation of a Disney film. Its also the one musical that hasn't been included in any of the medleys Disney theatricals has used in any of its marketing materials for its 25th anniversary outside of just having an image of its marquee. Thus I wouldn't really include it in the list of Disney musicals for simultaneous running purposes it was sold as Elton John and Time Rice's Aida and not Disney's Aida.

Do I think Frozen is in serious danger of closing in the next 6 months? No, but I think its facing the curse of high expectations. Everyone was expecting it to be the next Lion King for Disney and its shaping up more like a Mary Poppins. Mary Poppins it should be noted was never a member of the SRO club, and fell out of the million dollar club, and fell to playing to only 75% of its gross potential for the second year of its 6.5 year run. The show is having a very clear transition from a new show to a long running hit. Frozen looks to be a sleeper hit akin to Rock of Ages, Waitress, School of Rock and Mary Poppins, which to many seems like a flop, but if its making money its making money. I can't imagine Frozen has yet to miss its nut which I imagine is probably in the $800k-$900k range, so even on a "slow" $1.1M dollar week Disney is still making between $200k-$300k.

The show that looks like its having a more rough transition especially looking at last week was Mean Girls. Their promotion of $85 tickets for their anniversary was very reminiscent of The Band's Visit's $65 Orchestra ticket promotion during the holidays, which we all new was foreboding in terms of pre-sales.

Updated On: 5/7/19 at 11:38 AM

Good point about this transitioning to a sleeper hit, instead of a closure. I remember when The Bands Visit posted the $65 orchestras and $35 balcony offer that it was not a good sign for the show. Mean Girls felt reminiscent. Mean Girls likely was a new hit, and not transitioning to a long term hit. Happens most seasons. The comparison of Frozen to Waitress and School of Rock are strong imo, a 3-4 year run for Frozen seems likely, maybe even 5th.

bear88 said: "It seems like there may be three legitimate hit musicals this spring. Ain't Too Proud is basically selling out, and has been doing that for a few weeks now. The Hadestown producers picked their theater well. With a limit on supply, the musical doesn't need to draw many people to pack the house - and the impact of the increased prices is starting to kick in. Tootsie is drawing a lot of people, and while it's not selling out, the trend seems positive - and the show is drawing as many paying customers as Ain't Too Proud and a lot more than Hadestown - but at lower prices.

Issues for these shows...

- Doesn't Hadestown need to win the Tony for Best Musical to sustain its momentum? It's the artsy show without an obvious tourist draw. The good reviews (with a few notable exceptions) and Tony nominations are great, but without the big prize, doesn't the buzz fade and prices fall?

- Can Ain't Too Proud beat the biomusical curse? This is only show of the three I've actually seen, albeit out of town, and I did predict it would run a couple of years because it is well performed and choreographed, and has an awfully good score. (Lucky guess.) But in recent years, jukebox musicals have started strong, then faded quickly. I think this one does better, if for no other reason than it's a great draw for people who grew up or know Temptationsmusic. It should do well this summer, but what happens in the fall?

- Tootsie isn't the event musical of the year thus far. (The event shows are plays.) I was glancing a few days ahead, when I will be in New York. Lots of seats available, albeit in a large theater by New York standards. But it has received favorable reviews, a bunch of Tony nominations, is based on a famous film, and is getting credit for being a professional and funny show - basically an enjoyablenight out. Even without a Tony win, I can easily see this one having staying power.But it's too early to tell."

Regarding your comments:

Hadestown, definitely needs the Tony to justify its $249 standard ticket pricing. It producers are promoting the show and selling it as if it already has won the Tony, which will be likely be crushing to the shows presales if it doesn't win. Its not a bridge and tunnel show, thus if it doesn't win Best Musical I see it having a run similar to Next to Normal of about 18 months- 2 years.

Aint Too Proud is destined at this point to run for at least a good 2-3 year+ run. Its the rare Biomusical of a popular artist to open to positive reviews, the only other examples one can look at are Jersey Boys and Beautiful both of which ran/are running 5+ years.

Tootsie is in a bit of a pickle. It should sell well through the end of the year especially after Santino wins Best Actor, which should legitimize the musical in the eyes of many fans who didn't know if it could transition to the stage well. It logically does need that Best Musical statue to transition past Santino's contract, otherwise this will be another Hello Dolly, Producers, If /Then , Hedwig and the Angry Inch star vehicle, that will be barely able to sustain post its stars exit.

qolbinau said: "Is Tootsie really another Hello, Dolly, If/Then or Producers? I wonder if we are overestimating the importance ofSantino for the production (even if he wins Best Actor). I doubt many people are buying tickets to see him, and I doubt THAT many people (even if more) will be buying tickets simply because of his Tony. I don't know if we have good evidence that an acting Tony really affects the box office the same way the evidence is clear from the Best Musical Tony."

Good point. Although Crazy Ex-Girlfriend has a very loud fan base, Fontana isn’t a household name in the same way as Nathan Lane, Better Middler or Idina Menzel (people would prefer seeing Elsa on Broadway than Hans). In addition, focusing on him ignores the acclaim (and Tony nominations) given to Andy G, Sarah Stiles and Lilli Cooper. Although the original film was primarily a Dustin Hoffman star veichle, the supporting cast was also quite impressive (Bill Murray, Jessica Lange, etc...) and the same is true here...

Maybeel said: "I am surprised to see the Be More Chill numbers. I was there Saturday night and only thought there were about 5 empty seats. Perhaps the weekday shows are much less popular. (Some of my group was in the balcony, and some were in orchestra, so I got a good overall sense of how the whole theater looked.)"



Maybeel -BMC? LOL..again seeing the show with a group? You're a shill! Don't take it personally unless you're a producer-investor but the show is not selling just look at the grosses > (down -21.7% ~ gross only 68% this week) and the available tickets this and next week.

Cranston was on vacation last week, so the show was dark.

bdn223 said: "qolbinau said: "Is Tootsie really another Hello, Dolly, If/Then or Producers? I wonder if we are overestimating the importance ofSantino for the production (even if he wins Best Actor). I doubt many people are buying tickets to see him, and I doubt THAT many people (even if more) will be buying tickets simply because of his Tony. I don't know if we have good evidence that an acting Tony really affects the box office the same way the evidence is clear from the Best Musical Tony."

The film is very much iconic for Dustin Hoffman’s performance. It’s one of the main reasons for the rose colored glasses many of the films fans have for the extremely dated plot. If/When Santino win’s his much deserved Tony, its an easy selling point. “Move over Dustin, there’s a new Tootsie in town, and this one actually won Best Actor”. The producers have been wise not to sell this as Santino’s show up until this point, in an effort to not become a Hello Dolly or TheProducers, but if it looses Best Musical, I think it’s probably the best chance the show has to sell tickets."

They aren't selling it as "his show" because its not his show. He isn't doing anything amazing in this role. The role is iconic..he is not.
Many other actors could do this just as well ( and some much better). Here, i will name some:

Brian D"arcy James. Jonathan Groff, Steven Pasquale, Daveed Diggs (maybe not sing it), Tony Yazbek, Andrew Call, Andy Karl, Joshua Henry, Ben Crawford, Will Chase, Max Von Essen, Paul Nolan, Hadley Fraser, Ramin, Derek Klena, Benjamin Walker, Chad Kimball,James Snyder, Drew Gehling and on and on and on.

When he is replaced i imagine the next person will do just as well. Its like When john lloyd young left jersey boys..there were about 10 other Frankie's that did just as well with the role, but John happened to do it first..ergo Tony Award.
The secondary characters (minus ms cooper who is incredibly bland) carry this show. Those people will be much much harder to replace in my opinion.