Broadway Star Joined: 10/15/08
^^^
i was assuming the worst case scenario in terms of the nut and the best case scenario in terms of the grosses.
but you know what they say about "ASS-U-ME."
Most likely, yes. It swill probably recoup by November or December (at the latest).
It is still a great week especially with the economy now. Like West Side Story, will these shows recoup soon Billy Elliot, Next To Normal, God Of Carnage?. Has Poppins recouped yet?.
Labor Day weekend will help it a little bit.
We'll see how GOD OF CARNAGE does when it returns. I wonder if the hiatus will affect their numbers, and how. I'm also curious to see if the replacement cast will be able to keep the show running. I heard a lot of people who told me DOUBT was not the same (as good) without its original Broadway cast, hope CARNAGE's replacement cast is able to match the original four.
I don't see why anyone should worry about WEST SIDE STORY, I mean, it's still grossing over a million dollars. For a show that doesn't star Julia Roberts and that doesn't have a flying car, that's pretty great. Fall/Winter are not easy times, I'm sure the producers have planned around that.
Has Poppins recouped yet?.
Yes.
Stand-by Joined: 12/8/08
My personal prediction in that Billy Elliot will recoup in the next few weeks MAX...got money on next week.If it doesn't then it was WAY past the $18 million and 750k costs per week that have been thrown around, and I doubt that(well I doubt its past 750 k a week...18 million might be a bit low but I'm assuming that in my guess).
Burn the Floor took a significant decrease in audience attendance and weekly gross, and they decided to extend until January?
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/12/09
I don't see them lasting until January. November MAYBE.
Took the words out of my mouth millie.
I'm going to guess that their ADVANCE sales look good enough to warrant it.
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/8/08
West Side Story was perfectly fine. It played at almost 90% capacity and grossed over $1.1 million. That's not exactly what I'd call 'ouch'.
"I'm going to guess that their ADVANCE sales look good enough to warrant it."
Hopefully, because if it is already showing signs of slowing down, and the summer season hasn't even ended yet, I can only wonder what will happen in the fall/winter season.
Where did that figure come form that Billy Elliot cost 750k a week to run? That would be a very high production cost, the wage bill I would not think would be excessive, especially the starring part is played by 4 teenagers!
Leading Actor Joined: 5/1/09
"assume the nut is ~$750,000/week (it's probably much less than this, but i'm assuming this for simplicity sake).
the average gross (up until this week) was ~ $1.2-1.3 million. round off the profit to ~ $500K/week to make the math easier. that makes for ~ $2 million/month.
14/2 = 7. so best case scenario it recoups in 7 months. "
That's not how the math works. It's not that simple. Or profitable. You've got to subtract ~10% from the gross gross number to account for ticketing fees, cc fees, etc.
Then, after showing the weekly profit, you have to subtract our the royalty streams, which are probably about a third of the profit - they may be a % of gross, but either way it's about the same number, you have to subtract it - it's a variable cost, not factored into a show's weekly nut. Takes a while to recoup, unless you have an extremely cheap initial production cost, like Hair had.
Stand-by Joined: 3/29/07
Actually, the fact that there are so many kids probably makes them as expensive as a well known adult when you factor in their salary, the child wranglers, their tutors, and all the other things they pay for in regards to having so many kids in the show.
Stand-by Joined: 12/8/08
The cost for the finding, training(of which some wont make it),looking after tutoring etc etc of those kids must be MASSIVE...and remember they have to pay 4 actors instead of one, and theres no discount for being a teenager. I read the 750k guess a loooong time ago but cant remember where but just doing the math so far if it ISNT that high per month then the opening costs were WAY over 18 million or itd have recouped by now
God of Carnage recouped already. There was a sentence or two about it in Variety or the Times a few weeks ago.
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