Can Five New Hit Musicals Survive?

If you've been watching the grosses Cinderella, Kinky Boots, Matilda, Motown and Pippin (in order of their opening nights)have all done great business right out of the gate from their first preview on. Have we ever had a situation where five hit musicals open in the spring, be they popular hits or critical hits or both,and all five hang in there and run? Is there enough business to sustain them or will some have to fall due to a finite Broadway audience? I did not include Hands On A Hardbody because the show has been anemic at the box office from its first preview and its reviews in my opinion were not strong enough and came too late to build a following amid the competition of the other five to survive.

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If you ask me, Cinderella is most likely to fold out of that list. If Matilda gets the reviews it's expected to, I feel like it'll draw the family friendly crowds more than Cinderella. Also, I believe Cinderella's weekly nut is quite high and they have to fill the barn that is the Broadway to keep afloat.

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Yes, and it's been open for less than two months. The problem isn't filling it while they've still got fresh buzz and some of their family-friendly competition has yet to open and scoop up tons of Tonys. The problem is sustaining those numbers during slower months and when they have to compete in advertising with Matilda, which seems inevitable to win Best Musical at this point. Cinderella doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of beating Pippin or Drood for winning Best Revival, which isn't even as marketable of an award.

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Updated On: 4/2/13 at 03:58 PM

Hit musicals expand the market. There isn't a static pool of theater-goers and the grosses don't suffer when there are too many shows splitting the pie. If a show is a hit and has good buzz, people who rarely go see a show will buy tickets.

There is a relatively small group of people who go sees shows because they feel like they have to go see shows and will buy tickets to things they don't particularly want to see if that's all there is.

Kelly2, I completely disagree with you on many fronts.

First of all, why do you think that Cinderell's weekly nut is that high? I would doubt that they are paying their leads percentages of the gross, so what makes the show that expensive. I doubt it's more expensive than Matilda. We know the Cinderella grosses, what do you think the weekly nut is, approximately?

Second, although I think that Pippin will be greated with great reviews and is a lock to win the Tony for Best Revival of a Musical, I doubt if it will run as long as Cinderella, which has a gigantically larger base.

Having seen Matilda in London and instantly becoming a big fan, I think it will hurt Annie more than Cinderella.

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To answer another question the OP asked, back in (I want to say it was) 2005, all 4 Best Musical Nominees were running a year later: Spamalot, Light in the Piazza, Spelling Bee, and Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. Not sure if all recouped, but a healthy run like that is saying something.

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It was 2004-2005. That was my first trip to NYC. I thought that was a pretty remarkable year, and just goes to show that if the material is quality, a show can survive. With the exception of Piazza, they were all sort of pulling from the same audience base - light-hearted comedies - and all survived.

I don't think Kinky Boots is going to run for a year, but I don't see it fizzling out either. They need to get it on some talk shows. It sounds like the score is upbeat and fun.