Could 2019 Tony’s end up like 2005?

Ive seen 4 of the 5 nominees for best musical this year (The Prom, Tootsie, Beetlejuice, and Hadedtown) and the spread of the nominees got me thinking about how this years winners could end up like the results of years past. I enjoyed all 4 musicals and what stood out to me is how fruitful a season it was for musicals compared to earlier years that didnt have as many quality musicals to count. I know a lot of people here disagree and this is just my opinion, but I think this year has potential to end up like the winners did in 2005 - primarily best musical, book, and score all going to 3 different shows.

In 2005, it seems like the committee recognized that they had a lot of great shows to choose from and decided to spread the wealth by giving Spelling Bee best book for its strong writing, Light in the Pizza best score for its great music, and still giving Spamalot best musical for its overall great production. I believe theres a chance we see these 3 awards split this year between the 3 top musicals. My predictions are:

Best Score - Hadestown
This is definitely the strongest score out of all the nominees and definitely is the main reason it sets itself apart from the other musicals. The fact that the show is mostly sung through which this strong of a score helps hide the fact that the book is so thin and repetitive, and the story is not much different than what we already know from the Greek myth - making the show as a whole imbalanced. I give the score a 10/10 and the book a 4/10. Its really the score that elevates everything which is why I think it should win.

Best Book - Tootsie
Its been brought up on these boards before that this is a rare show that has a book stronger than the score and I agree. Even though its based on a movie, the book is a laugh a minute and a great example of how to elevate pre-existing work for the stage. Its the unfortunately forgetful songs that make the whole show imbalanced. I give the book a 10/10 and the score a 6/10.

Best Musical - The Prom
Its the idea of a balanced show that I brought up earlier that might give this show the edge. The book, while not as strong as Tootsies, is still solid and hilarious and completely original, and stronger than Hadedtowns. The score, while not as strong as Hadestowns, is still solid and memorable and completely original, and stronger than Tootsies. Id give the book AND score both an 8/10. Its this type of balance and lack of one element out-weighing the other that could leave it in the minds of voters as an overall great time and great production (not unlike spamalot) and could lead to it taking home the top prize.

If I were a voter, thats how Id vote in those 3 categories. I could very well be very wrong.

Thoughts? Other seasons youd compare this one to?

I want Hadestown to win so bad, but I fear that they're going to give it to The Prom.

Is this how Great Comet fans felt two years ago?

In that scenario, I would flip TOOTSIE to Best Musical and PROM to Best Book. But yes, it could happen...especially with the additional showing of love for The Prom with Caitlin and Director noms.

2005 was also a 4-way race for Best Musical: Spamalot as the box office musical comedy hit (reminiscent of The Producers), Piazza as the beautiful legit musical, Spelling Bee as the fun indie show, and Scoundrels as a classy-yet-raunchy musical comedy. Spam also had the Python brand + legendary director Mike Nichols (who won).

Updated On: 5/2/19 at 12:46 PM

I think what's really interesting about this year is that the Tonys lately have really valued the book (9 of the past 10 Best Musical winners have taken Best Book). Also, only once since 2008 has Actor in a Musical not gone to either the star of Best Musical or Best Revival. So that leads me to wonder, even though Hadestown seems to be the most renowned production and led the nominees with 14, given that most people if they had one criticism of the show would say it's the book, and Reeve Carney was not even nominated--I could easily seeing Hadestown win the most awards but not take Best Musical.

Broadway61004 said: "I think what's really interesting about this year is that the Tonys lately have really valued the book (9 of the past 10 Best Musical winners have taken Best Book). Also, only once since 2008 has Actor in a Musical not gone to either the star of Best Musical or Best Revival. So that leads me to wonder, even though Hadestown seems to be the most renowned production and led the nominees with 14, given that most people if they had one criticism of the show would say it's the book, and Reeve Carney was not even nominated--I could easily seeing Hadestown win the most awards but not take Best Musical."

That's interesting, both those points would seem to indicate that Tootsie is the one to beat in this race, then. Most people seem to agree that it has the strongest book, and Santino is the front runner for Actor in a Musical.

If Hadestown loses it will lose to Tootsie, not the Prom (which I saw and enjoyed).. I'd actually rate the chances of Ain't Too Proud better than those of The Prom. Don't forget that it got 12 nominations.

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I feel like the trend has been towards sweeps, even when a show doesn't necessarily deserve all the awards it picks up. At best/worst (depending on your perspective) I can see these 3 categories being split between 2 shows but not 3. Unless the votes get split (which is possible with more than one acting nom from the same show in a couple categories) I think they'll have spread the wealth around enough in the other categories that we'll still see one or two shows sweeping.

Rogerdellibovi said: "Fredrich Yeager said: "Broadway61004 said: "I think what's really interesting about this year is that the Tonys lately have really valued the book (9 of the past 10 Best Musical winners have taken Best Book). Also, only once since 2008 has Actor in a Musical not gone to either the star of Best Musical or Best Revival. So that leads me to wonder, even though Hadestown seems to be the most renowned production and led the nominees with 14, given that most people if they had one criticism of the show would say it's the book, and Reeve Carney was not even nominated--I could easily seeing Hadestown win the most awards but not take Best Musical."

That's interesting, both those points would seem to indicate that Tootsie is the one to beat in this race, then. Most people seem to agree that it has the strongest book, and Santino is the front runner for Actor in a Musical."

I feel it's the other way around. Voters decide who they want for Best Musical and then unless they have a strong preference for something/someone else for a particular category just go with the show they already chose.

"

That's definitely a valid point as well and I certainly think is what happened last year. At the same point, though, in 2005, the "arthouse" show (Piazza) took all the design awards, score, orchestrations and one acting award, leaving the Book and Musical categories for two of the funnier, more book-heavy pieces. Could easily see that repeating this year. But I think this year will tell us a lot about what the Tony voters are really looking for when judging Best Musical (also would not be shocked if Hadestown took both Musical AND Book, even though Tootsie seems far in front in that category).

I will eat my hat if Prom wins best musical. Not necessarily because I think it sucks, but looking at everything that goes into tony awards... it won't happen. They're not as strong as Hadestown, don't have the edgy/political bent (and comedies are less likely to win in general), from their previous marketing I have little faith at their ability to mount a powerful tony campaign a la Avenue Q.



Disclaimer that I don't hate them, I think it's a cute show, love the representation, and I hope they do well and the grosses pick up. But I honestly don't think it's likely they'll win, and in my honest opinion Hadestown deserves the top prize.

Mister Matt said: "Is this how Great Comet fans felt two years ago?

Yes. And Matilda fans six years ago."

As someone who was a big fan of both (and Light in the Piazza, for that matter), those three tony years were pretty tough! I'm 100% Team Hadestown this year, so yeah, I guess I'm preparing to have my heart dashed to pieces again. That's life.