Finding Neverland Cast- Page 2

[skies]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 1:07pm

Kelsey Grammar is set to return regardless of Matthew Morrison's replacement;  however I'm guessing an official announcement any day now.

Still scratching my head as to how a show that in 40 full weeks has grossed close to 40 million is perceived by some as financially floundering, with its latest gross being over 900K.

[Back Row]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 1:40pm

"Still scratching my head as to how a show that in 40 full weeks has grossed close to 40 million is perceived by some as financially floundering, with its latest gross being over 900K."

The rumored cost to produce the show was over $20 million. If you do the math (based on a $700K break even), that means they are a little over halfway to recouping. As the weekly grosses inevitably drop closer to the break even point, that ground is much harder to make up. Unless they can maintain those million dollar weeks without the original stars, they may be a couple more years from recouping. 

The problem is not so much in how much the show is making. It is in how much the show cost to get to Broadway.

 

Updated On: 12/28/15 at 01:40 PM

[Sunny11]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 2:32pm

http://nypost.com/2015/10/02/finding-neverland-is-a-sinking-ship/

Here Weinstine estimated that it would recoupe  it's $15 million in "52 weeks"  which is I assume means October 2016.  I don't think he counted from when the show opened since the math doesn't work out that way taking into account the box office numbers at the time of the article which have been  steady since. 

[Caitiecait92]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 3:35pm

yankeefan7 said: ""He has less than a month remaining I find it odd they have not replaced him yet or at least made an announcement. "

 

 

 

I agree because you would think the replacement would have had to begun rehearsals by now. Maybe, they are still trying to get Mr. Morrison to extend.

 

"I don't think Matthew will extend because on the Today show he spoke about starting a family and moving on to new things. I think it's strange Kelsey is staring 4 days earlier than he's suppose to. I'm hoping the actor who is replacing him is in rehearsal now and they are waiting for after the holidays to announce. Unless they are having his understudy fill in until grammar leaves. Then maybe they will cast two new big named people. 

 

[bfreak]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 3:54pm

It's not that strange that Kelsey is starting 4 days early. The show wanted more of an overlap between Kelsey's return and Matthew's departure. They probably are starting mid-week because they probably will have to give Kelsey about a week long rehearsal to remind him of blocking and everything since it's been a while. It probably just fit Kelsey and the show's schedule better to start mid-week instead of at the beginning of the week he is now starting.

[skies]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 6:49pm

Sunny11 said: "http://nypost.com/2015/10/02/finding-neverland-is-a-sinking-ship/

Here Weinstine estimated that it would recoupe  it's $15 million in "52 weeks"  which is I assume means October 2016.  I don't think he counted from when the show opened since the math doesn't work out that way taking into account the box office numbers at the time of the article which have been  steady since. 

"

 

While I have my reservations whether FN would have the legs to last 3 years, I'm leaning towards their chances are good of  recouping their costs by running another 6-8 months after Matt leaves.  Harvey in this article of course oversells, which is more than made up by Redeil's axe to grind which can be seen from outer space.  

 

FN does seem like the kind of musical that would have a shot of touring well, being marketed as family fare.

 

With Matt Morrison ,IMO  it's a circular argument by those who claim he's not that " big" a name , if so , when he exits the musical should be able to survive with a good replacement.   I don't know why people would be adverse to joining a musical that's already proven it has box office appeal.  The critical months would be January through March , and if muddles through those there could be an uptick through spring/summer/early fall. At the least I would expect good numbers for Matt's last month of January.

 

All in all, this was win/win for Matt as he finally headlined a hit BW show and shut up the naysayers who thought the negative pre opening media focus had doomed the show.  

Updated On: 12/28/15 at 06:49 PM

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 10:10pm

"As the weekly grosses inevitably drop closer to the break even point, that ground is much harder to make up. Unless they can maintain those million dollar weeks without the original stars, they may be a couple more years from recouping. "

 

Understood but the latest box office figure for weekend ending 12/20 they went over 1 million and willing to be they do it again the next time we see the numbers. Plus, they probably will do better than normal in January due to the publicity surrounding Mr. Morrison's last shows. I think if this show can survive until spring it will run long enough to recoup.

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 10:10 PM

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 12/28/15 at 10:13pm

"I dont know how accurate Riedel was but that means that the break even point is about 700k, which sounds right."

 

Yep, especially with over 1 million the week ending 12/20 and will probably do similar numbers for week ending 12/27. I expect better than normal January numbers due to them marketing Mr. Morrison's last shows.

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 10:13 PM

[skies]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 2:02am

Quoting Reidel:

"Finding Neverland” had a robust summer, with weekly grosses exceeding $1 million — not bad for a musical without a single Tony nomination. But lately the grosses have slipped into the $700,000s, a bit too close to the weekly break-even for comfort."

I dunno , that could also imply the breakeven is in the 600 K + range...

[bfreak]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 7:37am

I expect a huge gross the week of January 19-24 as it's Morrison's last week in the show and it has also been publicized  heavily as Kelsey Grammer's first full week back in the show. I'm sure a lot of people will want to try to get a chance to see the original leads together again. I know I did (I haven't even seen the show yet). I have tickets for January 21st.

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 8:32am

"But lately the grosses have slipped into the $700,000s, a bit too close to the weekly break-even for comfort."

I dunno , that could also imply the breakeven is in the 600 K + range...

 

The weeks from Thanksgiving weekend to 12/20 were in the $800,000- 1 million range.

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 08:32 AM

[skies]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 10:30am

yankeefan7 said: "The weeks from Thanksgiving weekend to 12/20 were in the $800,000- 1 million range."

In all fairness to Reidel did say the holiday season would probably give FN an upturn.  

I think it's hard to project the trajectory of a show until it's actually had the good fortune to survive an entire  year cycle , outside of the winter slowdown some experience. However that seems more general across the board excluding the hottest tickets.  

 

 

 

 

 

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 11:55am

"I think it's hard to project the trajectory of a show until it's actually had the good fortune to survive an entire  year cycle , outside of the winter slowdown some experience. However that seems more general across the board excluding the hottest tickets.  "

Very true. Personally, I hope it makes it. It was not the best thing I have seen this year but it was enjoyable and it was good to see Mr. Morrison in something other than "Glee".  Quick question. It has always been said that a show is not a flop if it recoups its investment. Would people still say "Finding Neverland" was a flop even if it recouped because it received no Tony nominations. Just curious.

[skies]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 1:02pm

yankeefan7 said: "Very true. Personally, I hope it makes it. It was not the best thing I have seen this year but it was enjoyable and it was good to see Mr. Morrison in something other than "Glee".  Quick question. It has always been said that a show is not a flop if it recoups its investment. Would people still say "Finding Neverland" was a flop even if it recouped because it received no Tony nominations. Just curious."

 

Usually I connect a flop with $$$,  that is to say a show that box office wise closes fairly quickly.  Critical acclaim/award nominations is a separate issue.  Take "the Visit" it  got some critical acclaim/nods but it was an absolute disaster per the gross take so I would call that a flop.

 

Just me , but would be hard pressed to call any show that runs over a year a " flop" ; it's more that it didn't perform per the investors expectations or was the victim of runaway costs (the obvious example is "Spider-Man" which ran 3 plus years and  the investors still took a bath, or say "Shrek the Musical".  Supposedly FN has invested sunk costs of 15 million, that's a tough road to hoe if the operating costs are between 650-700K per week, if not more, because you would realistically need at least 16-18 months to recoup. That's for a show that really hasn't struggled at the box office ( its first 35 weeks grossed 925 K plus) 

 

Compare with "Beautiful" which had a 13 million dollar investment and recouped in 10 months.

 

FN has a good chance as of now of doing it, but investors are really rolling the dice with those kinds of rate of returns requiring long runs.   Then again it's nothing new, the original Sondheim  "Follies" ran 14 months and from all accounts the investors lost everything.

 

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 01:02 PM

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 12/29/15 at 2:05pm

"Just me , but would be hard pressed to call any show that runs over a year a " flop" ; it's more that it didn't perform per the investors expectations or was the victim of runaway costs"

 

I agree with you, remember shaking my head with people on BWW calling the 1997 version of "Jekyll & Hyde" a flop because it did not recoup but it had a run of over 1,500 performances.

Updated On: 12/29/15 at 02:05 PM

[gstrus2]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 4:37pm

Surprised they have not announced Morrison's replacement yet. Morrison leaves in 18 days, the new actor must be rehearsing already.

[Sam2]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 4:46pm

 I'm afraid that they might not have a huge name to replace Morrison. Otherwise they would be promoting him already in order to boost winter ticket sales, right? Maybe the current understudy will be the new full time Barrie? 

Updated On: 1/6/16 at 04:46 PM

[Sunny11]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 5:17pm

. They are promoting Kelsey's return engagement hard though so are banking on him boosting sales. 

Both of the HookFrohmen replacements where announced only about 2 weeks before they started so this isn't unusually short notice just yet. 

 

 

[bfreak]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 5:25pm

It does seem they are promoting Kelsey's return pretty hard. Except I haven't seen any commercials with them explicitly mentioning him. Only online ads and a huge billboard in Times Square.

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 6:15pm

"Maybe the current understudy will be the new full time Barrie? "

 

That makes sense if there is no announcement and Mr. Morrison leaves on Jan 24th. If the replacement was a name you would have heard something and like others have said they would be promoting the new person for future sales.

[Caitiecait92]

Posted: 1/6/16 at 11:51pm

Maybe they are holding off until Matthew leaves? I was just thinking about it. If they announce another big name to replace Matthew they might lose some sales to the new name. I also feel they are trying to focus on Grammar because he left so suddenly and this is his big return. Maybe they will announce closer to when Grammar is leaving? At that point they would need to announce a Barrie and Hook. 

[TheaterGal3]

Posted: 3/14/16 at 12:01pm

Has anyone heard if Laura Michelle Kelly has announced an end date?